Conor Browne Profile picture
Dec 11 8 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. This is a very good question indeed from Martha, so I'll try and answer it - because the dilemma described here is faced by many, many other people.

From the outset, it's very important to remember that risk mitigation is absolutely not binary.
2. That is to say, risk mitigation is generally about *reducing* risk, rather than completely eliminating it - which in many situations (not just avoiding Covid) is simply not possible. The other point to remember is that the risk in this case is nested.
3. By that I mean, the goal is not simply avoiding infection, it is also having as few infections as possible. These are subtly different outcomes.

So, Martha is absolutely correct that living with other people creates a route for possible infection. No question of that.
4. If the other people in the household are not taking precautions against infection, or are unable to do so, then the risk of SARS-CoV-2 being brought into the household is higher.

In this case, passive mitigation in the household will reduce risk.
5. This entails HEPA filtration, ventilation, etc. Also asking other members of the household to test regularly may be useful.

However, key point: if one consistently mitigates one's *own* risk *outside* the household - such as by wearing a respirator, *overall* risk drops.
6. This is why infection should never be considered inevitable, and, remembering the nested nature of the risk, if one takes *more* precautions than the average person, but still has some vulnerabilities (the other people in the household) *total* infections will still reduce.
7. To end on a personal anecdote. I have a good friend who convinced himself he was high-risk because he had a large household. That attitude led him to take no precautions, because he thought infection was inevitable.
8. As such, he ended up infecting several members of his household by going to a small gathering unmasked - because he had convinced himself that infection was inevitable...

The definition of a self-fulfilling prophecy /end

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More from @brownecfm

Dec 9
1. @TimHortons - I absolutely assure you that forcing employees sick and contagious with Covid-19 into work is the very definition of a false economy. Please understand: by reducing Covid-19 infections amongst your staff you will save money in the medium-to-long term.
2. You will also avoid the bad optics of both potentially having to temporarily close stores at short notice (because too many staff are sick for you to be able to open) and customers potentially catching Covid-19 from one of your employees - which is not a good look.
3. Not to mention you would avoid posts just like the one on Reddit (see quote tweet in the first tweet in this thread) that, frankly, damages your brand by making you look bad. These posts have a tendency to go viral.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 2
1. Around this time in 2007, I was in the process of working out what my dissertation topic was going to be for the MA in Security Studies I was doing then. I suggested a research project that would effectively stress test the city of Belfast's ability to deal with an outbreak.
2. I was planning to examine existing contingency plans, hospital surge capacity, governance, communications etc. All the basic aspects of emergency management of an unexpected disease outbreak (whether deliberate, accidental, or natural).
3. My proposed hypothetical biological agent would have been airborne. Because my research was based in the CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) field, this mode of transmission was a given.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 1
1. I recently returned from a week-long hiking holiday along the stunning north coast of my country. This time of year, the coastline is particularly rugged, with almost constant wind whipping across the top of the sea cliffs that hug the long trail. A bright moon rises over a dark sea. The moonlight is reflected in the ocean right up to the sand of the beach. A headland is visible in silhouette from the right of the shot. The moon is behind a light cloud bank, and the clouds are illuminated by the moonlight. Waves gently lap across the dark water to the beach.
2. In short, it is a beautiful place to hike and take photographs. The area is very well-serviced by public transport, so getting there and back by train, and using local bus services to get to the start of the day's hike, is easy.
3. I saw some beautiful sights along the way. The islands off Scotland and the Scottish mainland illuminated by a letterbox of light on the horizon. The rays of the setting sun turning the coastal skies a million shades of red. The rising moon, the moonlight reflected in the sea.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 22
1. A core part of the analysis I perform involves zooming out; that is to say, taking a very broad view of the effects of infectious disease on populations, rather than individuals. People often reply to my posts here with something like, 'everyone I know who had Covid is ok'.
2. And that is almost certainly true, because most people only know a few people well. However, when I zoom out to the population level, it is crushingly obvious that continued unmitigated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is having increasingly damaging population-level effects.
3. This manifests primarily as ever-increasing levels of disability, caused by Long Covid, and, more perniciously, sequelae of Covid. Increased cardiovascular problems, increased autoimmune problems, increased diabetes etc.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 21
1. I agree with this point - meaning is very important in life, and meaning itself means different things to different people. This is why I constantly push for any and all measures that would remove (or drastically reduce) the need for indoor masking.
2. Such as: Indoor Air Quality (IAQ), access to fast and highly accurate personal testing, area-sensing, better vaccines and better therapeutics. I would have struggled with not eating and drinking in public spaces indoors at earlier periods in my life, for example.
3. In short, I choose where to set my own risk appetite based on my own knowledge and subject-matter expertise. However, I do not seek to enforce it on others. Rather, I seek to massively reduce risk everywhere while still allowing people to have meaning in their lives /end
Read 4 tweets
Nov 20
1. Every time the thought of taking an unnecessary risk of infection crosses my mind - as it did last night, walking around Belfast with its Christmas Market and nightlife in full swing - I immediately remember the effects that Covid had on people close to me.
2. One suffered Long Covid for three months, with crippling brain fog. Still has fatigue on exercise now, nearly a year later.

One ended up with crippling vertigo right after the acute infection resolved, lasted about a month.
3. One had to go to the emergency department with serious shortness of breath, took weeks to resolve.

One had altered taste and smell for about two months after the initial illness, resulting in significant weight loss (food tasted disgusting).
Read 5 tweets

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