Thread by @Alex_Vuving

🧵Vietnam has agreed to build a "community with a shared future" with China. It was the 8th and possibly the last country in Southeast Asia (after Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Brunei, Malaysia, and Indonesia) to join the China-led community.

Singapore and the Philippines are unlikely to take China's side anytime soon in this respect.
With 8/10 members within China's "community with a shared future," ASEAN is shrinking deeper into irrelevance, as demonstrated in the ongoing South China Sea conflict. /2

Many think that a "community with a shared future" is different than a "community of common destiny." But no, they are 2 English renditions of the same Chinese phrase 命运共同体, which translates literally as "community of common destiny." /3

"Community with a shared future" is the Beijing-sanctioned rendition of the original Chinese phrase "community of common destiny." Beijing changed the translation to avoid a negative connotation of "common destiny". /4

A similar example of China's manipulation of English is the "Belt and Road Initiative." It is the Beijing-sanctioned translation of the original Chinese phrase 一带一路, which literally translates as "One Belt, One Road." /5

A main difference in China's "communities with a shared future" with Southeast Asian countries is the degree of commitment from the Southeast Asian side. The commitment is highest in Cambodia and Laos, but lower in Thailand, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. /6

In Thailand's case, the 2022 joint statement announced that both sides would be "working towards," rather than agree to build, a "Thailand - China Community with a Shared Future for Enhanced Stability, Prosperity and Sustainability." /7
mfa.go.th/en/content/thc…

Seeing no better alternatives in its current grand strategy, Vietnam has "agreed to build" a Vietnam-China "community with a shared future," but it tried to add a long tail to the label. This long tail includes "in accordance with the UN Charter and international law, ... /8

... based on the principles of mutual respect, equal cooperation for mutual benefits, mutual respect of independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, and perseverance in solving disputes through peaceful measures." /9

https://twitter.com/HungSon_DAV/status/1734562513449075126

The long tail fits well with Vietnam's millennia-long tradition of dealing with China: performing the kow-tow in a modified way that expresses some defiance within the bound of deference. Vietnam thinks this is its time-honored way to keep peace with its giant neighbor. /10

Whether this centuries-long tradition will help Vietnam in the 21st century is a great question for debate. But the conditions for it to be super-helpful have been changed substantially. I wrote about these conditions here: osf.io/preprints/soca…