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This might be the best explanation I heard for "why Oct 7" and, surprisingly, it comes from Ami Ayalon, former head of the Shin Bet, Israel's secret service, and commander-in-chief of the Navy.
Here what he says (this is the first video, there are a couple more below which you'll really want to watch):
He says the "most important cause [of Oct 7]" was "the political paradigm", whereby Israel's policy was "divide and rule", meaning Israel "had to make sure Palestinians would not have a unified leadership" and could therefore always say "nobody to talk with, nothing to talk about". Concretely "in order to do it [Israel] had to make sure Hamas would go on controlling Gaza and the Palestinian authority the West bank", and incite them to "fight each other". This is why Israel "enhanced and assisted Hamas, transferred money, etc."
As a result of all this Hamas "got the Palestinians' support" because "they became the only administration who fought against the Israeli occupation and for the purpose of Palestinian freedom" while Fatah and the Palestinian authority became perceived as "Israeli collaborators". In his assessment "between 70 to 80% of the Palestinians are supporting Hamas, only because Hamas is perceived as the one who fight for [their] freedom."
He says Israel completely misunderstood the situation before Oct 7 because it measures "hardware" whilst Hamas measures "software", meaning that after every fight between Israel and the Palestinians, success for Israel is measured in "losses in human life, in military installations, in military infrastructure" whereas what Hamas measures is "the support of the people." As an illustration he says that in May 2021 - when there was fighting during 2 weeks and around 300 Palestinians were killed (to 17 on the Israeli side) - Israel thought that Hamas "suffered a huge loss and a huge military defeat" but from Hamas's standpoint it was "a huge victory" because this led to Hamas, for the first time, getting "more than 50% of the support from the Palestinian people."
Here what he says (this is the first video, there are a couple more below which you'll really want to watch):
He says the "most important cause [of Oct 7]" was "the political paradigm", whereby Israel's policy was "divide and rule", meaning Israel "had to make sure Palestinians would not have a unified leadership" and could therefore always say "nobody to talk with, nothing to talk about". Concretely "in order to do it [Israel] had to make sure Hamas would go on controlling Gaza and the Palestinian authority the West bank", and incite them to "fight each other". This is why Israel "enhanced and assisted Hamas, transferred money, etc."
As a result of all this Hamas "got the Palestinians' support" because "they became the only administration who fought against the Israeli occupation and for the purpose of Palestinian freedom" while Fatah and the Palestinian authority became perceived as "Israeli collaborators". In his assessment "between 70 to 80% of the Palestinians are supporting Hamas, only because Hamas is perceived as the one who fight for [their] freedom."
He says Israel completely misunderstood the situation before Oct 7 because it measures "hardware" whilst Hamas measures "software", meaning that after every fight between Israel and the Palestinians, success for Israel is measured in "losses in human life, in military installations, in military infrastructure" whereas what Hamas measures is "the support of the people." As an illustration he says that in May 2021 - when there was fighting during 2 weeks and around 300 Palestinians were killed (to 17 on the Israeli side) - Israel thought that Hamas "suffered a huge loss and a huge military defeat" but from Hamas's standpoint it was "a huge victory" because this led to Hamas, for the first time, getting "more than 50% of the support from the Palestinian people."
He says another key cause was "the new Middle-East [plan] presented by Biden" because "Palestinians were not mentioned".
To him this was a major mistake because "the Palestinians see themselves as a people, a nation" and this made them "feel alone and abandoned". As a result the Palestinians "chose the Samson option" because "they felt that they had nothing to lose and this was the only way for them to show to the world 'you will not be able to create stability in this region if you will bypass Palestinians.'" He concludes: "the tragedy is that they succeeded".
To him this was a major mistake because "the Palestinians see themselves as a people, a nation" and this made them "feel alone and abandoned". As a result the Palestinians "chose the Samson option" because "they felt that they had nothing to lose and this was the only way for them to show to the world 'you will not be able to create stability in this region if you will bypass Palestinians.'" He concludes: "the tragedy is that they succeeded".
This part is absolutely extraordinary: he compares Israel's current strategy to that of "ISIS and Al Qaeda".
He says many people in the current Israeli leadership set as a "political goal" to "create a human disaster in Gaza because from the chaos we shall start again." He says "this is exactly the theory of the most radical, fundamental Muslim organizations; this is exactly the theology and the strategy of ISIS and of Al Qaeda."
Remember the Netanyahu government's talking point that "Hamas is ISIS"? Here we have the former head of the Shin Bet actually saying that the current Israeli government is ISIS. Quite something!
He says many people in the current Israeli leadership set as a "political goal" to "create a human disaster in Gaza because from the chaos we shall start again." He says "this is exactly the theory of the most radical, fundamental Muslim organizations; this is exactly the theology and the strategy of ISIS and of Al Qaeda."
Remember the Netanyahu government's talking point that "Hamas is ISIS"? Here we have the former head of the Shin Bet actually saying that the current Israeli government is ISIS. Quite something!
Lastly, what's the solution here according to him?
He believes there is no other option than the two-state solution, because "this is the only way for us to be safer without losing our identity".
He says the current events actually make it more likely because Oct 7 made it become "a global issue" and "the only thing that all the global players agree is on the concept of two states: America, Europe, Russia, China, the Arab peace initiators, all of them understand."
He says before Oct 7 "it didn't matter because Palestinians didn't exist [figuratively]" but now because "it create instability everywhere in the Middle-East and influences the confrontation between America and China", solving things has become an imperative.
He actually begs great powers to impose a two-state solution: "I really hope that someone will put it on the table."
He believes there is no other option than the two-state solution, because "this is the only way for us to be safer without losing our identity".
He says the current events actually make it more likely because Oct 7 made it become "a global issue" and "the only thing that all the global players agree is on the concept of two states: America, Europe, Russia, China, the Arab peace initiators, all of them understand."
He says before Oct 7 "it didn't matter because Palestinians didn't exist [figuratively]" but now because "it create instability everywhere in the Middle-East and influences the confrontation between America and China", solving things has become an imperative.
He actually begs great powers to impose a two-state solution: "I really hope that someone will put it on the table."
So to summarize he places the blame for Oct 7 squarely on Israel and the US because, in a nutshell, 1) the "Israeli occupation" continues and Israel propped up Hamas as the only political player "who fight for [Palestinian] freedom" and 2) Biden's new Middle-East plan completely ignored the Palestinians which effectively provided the match to light the powder keg as it gave Palestinians a sense of urgency and a feeling they "had nothing to lose".
He's also extremely critical - that's an understatement - of the current Israeli strategy because he compares it to that of ISIS and al Qaeda. To him the only solution if the two-state solution and therefore an end of the Israeli occupation.
He's also extremely critical - that's an understatement - of the current Israeli strategy because he compares it to that of ISIS and al Qaeda. To him the only solution if the two-state solution and therefore an end of the Israeli occupation.
By the way, this is the source video (which is worth watching in full):
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