Thread by @mtuemoeller

1/9 The #Kremlin is rapidly loosing it's grip on its proclaimed sphere of influence in #Moldova🇲🇩

A short 🧵 on recent (geo)political developments in #Moldova related to the #Transnistria separatist breakaway region

2/9 At the @OSCE Ministerial Council in #Skopje, MD🇲🇩 stressed that "any solution" should take into account the territorial integrity of MD; underscored the need to integrate #Transnistria into MD; and called on RU🇷🇺 to withdraw its illegally stationed forces in Transnistria

3/9 In response, RU🇷🇺 FM #Lavrov, in a lightly veiled threat, claimed that MD🇲🇩 "is destined to fall the next victim in the West-unleashed hybrid war against 🇷🇺"
mid.ru/en/foreign_pol…

4/9 On Dec 14, @EUCouncil made the historic decision to open accession negotiations with MD🇲🇩 (and UA🇺🇦 as well as decided to grant GE🇬🇪 status of 🇪🇺 candidate country)
consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…

5/9 On Dec 15, MD🇲🇩 Parliament adopted the National Security Strategy, its first of its kind since 2011, which seeks to "increase the state's ability to prevent and counteract the implementation of national security risks" (read: counter RU saber rattling)
multimedia.parlament.md/parlamentul-a-…

6/9 On Dec 17, MD🇲🇩 launched military exercises at the Bulboaca Training Center, which is practically within walking distance from the administrative border with Transnistria - demonstrating a clear message to the #Kremlin
rferl.org/a/moldova-mili…

7/9
Also: RU🇷🇺 invasion of UA🇺🇦 has doomed the 5+2 negotiating platform on settling the Transnistria conflict (as RU no longer is viewed as a neutral mediator) and is instead replaced by direct dialogue between the two banks of the Dniester river
jamestown.org/program/moldov…

8/9
And: With the termination of RU🇷🇺 gas transit through UA🇺🇦, the only long term option for Transnistrian energy security is to work together with MD🇲🇩 government on providing the left bank with energy resources (read: energy cooperation = integration)
eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…

9/9
Conclusion: What we are seeing is an irreversible shift in the regional balance of power consequent to RU🇷🇺 war on UA🇺🇦

Prediction: Transnistria will be integrated into the state structure of MD🇲🇩 and slowly, but surely, the entirety of MD🇲🇩 will be part of the 🇪🇺 family 🈴