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Regarding the polls showing Trump winning as much as 31% of the Black vote, one of the things @SimonWDC and I have been saying for over a year now is that we have to pay attention to more than just the polls. Here's an example of what we're talking about...
If there was truly such a radical realignment happening with Black voters, you would expect to see evidence, not just in polls. Yet, all of the other data sources show unwavering support for Dem candidates from Black voters.
First and foremost, let's look at election results (you know... the thing that people are trying to use polls to predict). In the 2023 elections, there was no evidence of Democrats losing support from Black voters.
Analysis by @SplitTicket_ estimated the Dem margin with Black voters in MS this year at 97%. Not consistent with a mass realignment towards Republicans. 
But if election results aren't enough for you, look at voter registration data. This chart shows the percent of Black voters registering as Republicans over the past 7 years. Any evidence here of massive GOP gains?
I'm not saying the polls are necessarily "wrong". I am saying that they aren't plausibly predictive of next year's election results.
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