Michael Pettis Profile picture
Jan 6 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/6
Good Soumaya Keynes piece on the rarity of true economic convergence between backward and advanced economies. There is a widespread assumption that economic backwardness must lead to faster growth as capital and labor inputs are forced up.

via @ftft.com/content/e7e956…
2/6
Even within countries, the assumption is that with enough investment, poorer regions will catch up to richer ones. By diverting enough capital to a poor country or region, and mobilizing enough labor, the poorer economy will eventually converge to the richer one.
3/6
But I disagree. Advanced economies are "advanced" because they have a specific set of institutions that, given their particular conditions, allow their workers and businesses to exploit labor and capital inputs most productively.
4/6
To put it another way, advanced economies are advanced not because they have invested more. On the contrary – they are only able to invest more because they are advanced, and they are advanced because of their political, legal, business, financial, and other institutions.
5/6
That is why, I would argue, advanced economies that have been laid low by devastating wars (e.g. Germany and Japan after WW2) mostly just needed surging investment to return to their former advanced-economy status, whereas the very few backward economies that achieved...
6/6
advanced-economy status in the past 100 years were only able to do so after undergoing massive institutional transformations.

Douglass North was right: it is mainly institutions that matter.

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More from @michaelxpettis

Jan 4
1/8
Good article. It cites prominent labor economist Cai Fang as arguing that further reform to the hukou system could unleash more than 2 trillion yuan in consumption. "Even without an increase of incomes," he notes, "it would raise...

via @scmpnewssc.mp/q3j6?utm_sourc…
2/8
migrant workers’ spending power by 30 per cent because of improvements to their social safety net."

He's certainly right that reforming (i.e. eliminating) the hukou system would boost consumption, but this is also why it is so difficult to do.
3/8
It would boost consumption, he notes, because it would mean an improvement in the social safety nets for tens of millions of migrant workers.

But this improvement isn't free. It would be the obverse of a huge increase in social spending by the major cities.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 4
1/8
Zhang Jun argues here that worries about a Chinese slowdown are exaggerated. He notes that "China’s government is expected urgently to reduce the share of investment in GDP and support household consumption, such as through...
2/8
income transfers and stronger welfare programs (which would enable households to reduce precautionary savings)." He also notes that "China is grappling with issues like large debts, misallocation of capital, severe pollution, and a troubled property sector."
3/8
"But," he says, "China’s government has been clearly aware of these problems – and committed to addressing them – for a decade."

He's right that these problems have been obvious for over a decade, but that is exactly why we should worry.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 3
1/6
I just finished Diana Henriques' very interesting book on FDR's attempts to rein in the excesses of Wall Street in the 1930s. She shows how the major New York banks fought ferociously (and often unfairly) against every proposed measure to...

@dianabhenriques Image
2/6
force better disclosure, to segregate productive financial activity from speculative activity, to limit monopolizing tendencies, and otherwise to reduce disruptive behavior by the major banks and Wall Street players.
3/6
In many cases the banks warned that even the least of these measures threatened the eventual collapse of the US financial system and the US economy, even when they consisted of obvious measures that resulted in a real strengthening of the financial system.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
1/4
Important point by the FT: China's "targeted lending differs from broad western-style monetary easing, according to the central bank, by channelling cheap credit into strategic areas to boost the economy without stoking inflation."

via @ftft.com/content/87274e…
2/4
This is why I disagree so strongly with the widespread perception that low inflation in China creates more room for monetary expansion. On the contrary, low inflation in China is evidence of excessive monetary expansion mainly because monetary expansion is driven by what...
3/4
in 1980s Japan was referred to as "window guidance". The purpose of monetary expansion, in Japan then and China today, is not to boost market-based demand but rather to boost supply in targeted sectors. Monetary expansion is disinflationary, rather than inflationary.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
1/5
In December China's factory activity contracted for a third consecutive month, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.0 in December from 49.4 in November. This was well below already weak expectations.

chinadaily.com.cn/a/202312/31/WS…
2/5
China has replaced a large part of the recent decline in property-sector investment with increased investment in manufacturing, and while some analysts saw this as a good thing, it seemed to me that it was simply shifting from one kind of over-investment into another.
3/5
That's because the biggest constraint on the manufacturing sector hasn't been access to capital but rather weak demand, so that expanding manufacturing investment mostly means expanding excess capacity. The latest data suggests this continues to be the case.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 29, 2023
1/7
This Yicai article discusses a very interesting statement by prominent economist Teng Tai. Like a rising number of Chinese economists, Teng calls for transferring resources out of investment and into household income.

yicaiglobal.com/news/china-sho…
2/7
But he proposes it at a higher scale than others. The key, he says, "is to save around CNY20 trillion to CNY30 trillion of inefficient, ineffective, and excess investment each year, and convert it into disposable incomes and subsequently into consumption."
3/7
China currently invests around RMB 50-55 trillion every year. Teng seems to be suggesting that well over a third of this is "inefficient, ineffective, and excess investment", or substantially more than half of the aggregate investment in property and infrastructure.
Read 7 tweets

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