Michael Pettis Profile picture
Jan 14 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/6
Even as the EU and the US gear themselves for a surge in Chinese EV sales as Chinese producers overwhelm their foreign competitors, the profitability and share prices of Chinese EVs have plummeted this year.

cnb.cx/48IMGYd
2/6
That's because their expansion in sales is more a reflection of weakness in the domestic economy than it is a reflection of production strengths. With Chinese households unable to buy a significant portion of what they produce, but with investment nonetheless being poured...
3/6
into the manufacturing sector, the result is not a brisk, profitable market for EV producers but rather widening overcapacity and a struggle to stay profitable. This overcapacity is being shifted abroad through the trade account.
4/6
While EU and US policymakers focus on the EV market, they should really be focusing more generally on the role of trade in externalizing the cost of increasing production subsidies in surplus economies at the expense of demand. Trade should boost total demand, not repress it.
5/6
There's nothing wrong in principle with heavily subsidized EVs, as a recent Economist article notes, but they don't seem to understand why it matters that exporting more EVs abroad does not lead to an equivalent boost in imports.

economist.com/leaders/2024/0…
6/6
It is not exports that expand global production. It is trade, which means countries exporting and importing goods from each other to maximize comparative advantage and economies of scale. Large, persistent surpluses imply repressed domestic demand, not the benefits of trade.

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More from @michaelxpettis

Jan 14
1/9
Thanks to “The East is Read” for translating this interview with Fudan University’s economics dean, Zhang Jun. Among other things he note: “A significant contributing factor [to China’s slowdown] is the long-term inefficiency in capital allocation.”

eastisread.com/p/relax-contro…
2/9
“Many economists,” he continues, “have highlighted that the Chinese economy has long suffered from inefficient capital allocation and resource misallocation. However, short-term prosperity often obscures these substantive issues, making them hard to see.”
3/9
I have long argued that this misallocation of capital (formerly mainly in property and infrastructure, now mainly in manufacturing and infrastructure) is driven by the need since 2006-08 to achieve politically-determined GDP growth targets that exceed...
Read 9 tweets
Jan 9
1/5
Regulators are trying to boost local stock markets by getting financial institutions to invest more. According to Yicai, "Chinese fund managers are finding it hard to launch new public equity funds as investors’ appetite for risk remains weak."

yicaiglobal.com/news/chinese-e…
2/5
"However," they continue, "there are rumors swirling that China’s securities regulator is asking fund managers to issue more equity funds to revive the ailing stock market."

It seems that most of the funds raised so far as been from the pockets of fund managers.
3/5
"Of the 10 public equity funds launched in the first trading week of the year," according to Yicai research, "around CNY10 million was raised for each fund. And considering that the fund managers promised to purchase...
Read 5 tweets
Jan 8
1/8
Important Bloomberg article on worsening global trade constraints. It is becoming more and more likely that world moves towards a manufacturing over-production crisis. Given the current structure of its economy, China effectively...

via @economicsbloomberg.com/news/features/…
2/8
expects over the next decade to expand its share of global manufacturing twice as fast as it expands its share of global GDP and 3-4 times as fast as it expands its share of global consumption.

carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancial…
3/8
The US and India also expect to expand the manufacturing shares of their respective GDPs while reining in trade deficits, which effectively means reducing their shares of global consumption.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 6
1/6
Good Soumaya Keynes piece on the rarity of true economic convergence between backward and advanced economies. There is a widespread assumption that economic backwardness must lead to faster growth as capital and labor inputs are forced up.

via @ftft.com/content/e7e956…
2/6
Even within countries, the assumption is that with enough investment, poorer regions will catch up to richer ones. By diverting enough capital to a poor country or region, and mobilizing enough labor, the poorer economy will eventually converge to the richer one.
3/6
But I disagree. Advanced economies are "advanced" because they have a specific set of institutions that, given their particular conditions, allow their workers and businesses to exploit labor and capital inputs most productively.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 4
1/8
Good article. It cites prominent labor economist Cai Fang as arguing that further reform to the hukou system could unleash more than 2 trillion yuan in consumption. "Even without an increase of incomes," he notes, "it would raise...

via @scmpnewssc.mp/q3j6?utm_sourc…
2/8
migrant workers’ spending power by 30 per cent because of improvements to their social safety net."

He's certainly right that reforming (i.e. eliminating) the hukou system would boost consumption, but this is also why it is so difficult to do.
3/8
It would boost consumption, he notes, because it would mean an improvement in the social safety nets for tens of millions of migrant workers.

But this improvement isn't free. It would be the obverse of a huge increase in social spending by the major cities.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 4
1/8
Zhang Jun argues here that worries about a Chinese slowdown are exaggerated. He notes that "China’s government is expected urgently to reduce the share of investment in GDP and support household consumption, such as through...
2/8
income transfers and stronger welfare programs (which would enable households to reduce precautionary savings)." He also notes that "China is grappling with issues like large debts, misallocation of capital, severe pollution, and a troubled property sector."
3/8
"But," he says, "China’s government has been clearly aware of these problems – and committed to addressing them – for a decade."

He's right that these problems have been obvious for over a decade, but that is exactly why we should worry.
Read 8 tweets

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