Thread by @Rob_Richie

When electing powerful leaders, elections should uphold majority rule. Winners are more representative, have clearer mandates & engage more voters. Let’s review examples of consequential non-majority wins in elections without ranked choice voting or effective runoffs.
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It’s timely to spotlight this value as we celebrate Martin Luther King. Jr. Rev. King urged us “to make real the promise of democracy.” As we build a more perfect union, let's look for better ways to elect majorities & the minorities who together form those majorities.
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Let’s start with presidential elections. Since 1824, when John Quincy Adams won with only 29.8%, 19 Electoral College winners earned less than half of the popular vote. Low plurality “wins” in primaries also boosted potentially weak & unrepresentative nominees.
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In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by 51.3% to 46.8% - but won 3 states narrowly with less than 50% in AZ, GA & WI. It’s unlikely that every backer of Libertarian Jo Jorgensen would have preferred Trump to Biden, but if so, Trump would have won.

4/xtheguardian.com/us-news/2020/n…

In the 2020 Democratic primaries, Joe Biden stumbled in IA (4th place, 14.9%) NH (5th, place 8.4%) & NV (17.6%). But after a 48.6% win in South Carolina, several candidates withdrew & Biden’s sudden momentum led to Super Tuesday wins & the nomination.

5/xnytimes.com/interactive/20…

In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. He lost the popular vote by 48% to 46%, but won AZ (48.1%), FL (48.6%), MI (47.3%), PA (48.2%) & WI (47.2%). Voters for Libertarian Johnson & the Green Stein in an instant runoff would have decided the election.

6/xdegruyter.com/document/doi/1…

In 2016, Trump 1st won a primary with >50% on April 19. Simulations suggest Trump would have lost nearly all the previous 22 state primaries in head-to-head votes. Such losses would have greatly changed momentum calculations.


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In the 2016 GOP primary in SC, for example, Trump swept delegates with only 33% over Cruz & Marco Rubio, each w/22%. Rubio likely would have won SC by 9% head-to-head against Trump & thus avoided resorting to his disastrously inept negative campaign.

8/xfairvote.org/simulating_ins…

In the 2016 GOP Iowa caucuses, Ted Cruz earned 28% compared to Trump’s 24% & the rest of the field’s 48%. Simulations show that Cruz would have won a big landslide in a head-to-head race w/Trump, greatly changing the narrative.

9/xfairvote.org/cruz_retains_l…

In 2012, Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination before losing White House in November to Barack Obama. 24 of the first 30 GOP state primaries & caucuses were won with <50%, including Santorum winning Iowa with only 25%.

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In 2008, Obama won the Democratic nomination. He won Iowa w/ 38% over Edwards (31%) & Clinton (30%). Clinton then won NH w/39%. Edwards' withdrawal turned it into a head-to-head contest not requiring “instant runoffs” to determine majority winners.

11/xen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_o…

In 2008, John McCain won the Republican nomination before losing to Obama. He got only 13% in Iowa, but won NH w/38%, then carried SC w/33% & FL w/36%. That gave him momentum over Romney in 22 Super Tuesday primaries that McCain mostly won with <50%.

12/xarchive.fairvote.org/reports/Turnou…

A fun fact about 2008. Both GOP nominee John McCain & Democratic nominee Barack Obama had boosted ranked choice voting - McCain with a recorded message in Alaska in 2002 & Obama by sponsoring a pro-RCV bill in Illinois.


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In 2004, John Kerry won the Democratic nomination before losing to Bush in November. He was an upset winner in Iowa caucuses with 37%, then won his neighboring state of New Hampshire w/38%. That momentum was enough to sweep him to the nomination

14/xuselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/nation…

In 2000, Gore won the popular vote by 48.4% to 47.9%, but Bush won the Electoral College. Gore would have won if reversing defeats in FL (537 votes) or NH (7,211 votes). Ralph Nader may have “spoiled” w/his votes earned in FL (97,488) & NH (22,198).

15/xfordhamdemocracyproject.com/2023/05/08/thi…

Democrat Bill Clinton won presidential elections over independent Ross Perot & GOP nominees Bush (1992 w/43%) & Dole (1996 w/49%). In 1992, fully 49 out of 50 states were won with under 50%, including Clinton’s wins in 4 states like Montana with <40%.

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14 other presidents won w/ <50% of the popular vote. 1844 offers a powerful example of a swing state split vote. Pro-slavery Polk’s win over slavery critic Clay depended on Polk’s 1% win in NY, where anti-slavery candidate Birney “spoiled” with 3%.

17/xibtimes.com/what-rank-choi…

Some argue Lincoln’s 39.7% win in 1860 shows plurality voting can be good. But he won majorities with over 50% in states comprising an Electoral College majority. He wasn’t even on the ballot in 9 southern states – deepening pre-war polarization.

18/xuselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.…

Let’s turn to consequential international & non-presidential USA elections, presented chronologically. Some are momentous - not that winners were necessarily “wrong,”, but with disputable outcomes with plurality voting or in runoffs with highly fractured 1st round results.
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Taiwan presidential election, Jan. 2024: The ruling party won w/41% over 2 candidates seeking to reduce tensions w/neighbor China. The legislature elected simultaneously at least has a more representative 61-53 majority for the 2 opposition parties.

20/xbbc.com/news/world-asi…

Mayoral election in Pirna, Germany, Dec. 2023: The far-right populist Alternative for Germany party won a mayoral race for the 1st time. Its candidate won with 38.5% in a 3-person runoff in which the 2 more traditional candidates together won 61.5%.

21/xbbc.com/news/world-eur…

Memphis mayoral election in Tennessee, Oct. 2023: The winner in a 17-candidate race earned only 27.6%. Unfortunately, the state legislature in 2022 blocked the city from implementing ranked choice voting, which Memphis voters had approved twice.

22/xfairvote.org/memphis-mayor-…

Philadelphia & Pittsburgh mayoral primaries, May 2023: Democratic primaries effectively chose new mayors in these Pennsylvania cities. Both were won with less than 40% of votes. A poll had found that most Philadelphia voters back ranked choice voting.

23/xfairvoteaction.org/the-results-ar…

US Senate & House primaries, 2022: 120 primaries were won with <50%, including 3 current House Members who won with <29%. Republicans lost US Senate races after controversial candidates won primaries w/low pluralities in AZ (40%), NH (37%) & PA (32%).

24/xfairvote.app.box.com/s/xmnjolsmcqd3…

Peru presidential election, 2021: Most runoffs mean >50% winners, but can still undercut majority rule. Peru’s 1st round advanced only far left Castillo (18.9%) & far right Fujimori (13.4%). Castillo won the runoff, but has been removed from office.

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New York City DA primary, 2021: NYC has ranked choice voting for city primaries, contributing to diverse winners earning more votes. But district attorneys need only a plurality. Alvin Bragg won Manhattan's Democratic DA primary by just 34% to 31%.
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26/xballotpedia.org/Alvin_Bragg_Jr

Florida state senate election, 2020: Plurality voting helps operatives promote “spoilers.” A phantom independent w/incumbent's name had >6,000 votes, enabling GOP challenger to win by 34 votes. It led to criminal convictions.


27/xtampabay.com/opinion/2020/1…
apnews.com/article/florid…

Fall River Recall Election, 2019: Mayor Jasiel Correia was recalled by landslide, 61% to 39%. But his 35% of votes was enough to win the plurality election to replace him. Later, he lost his re-election bid & is now incarcerated for crimes in office.

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Washington State Treasurer, 2016: Top 2 primaries produce majority winners, but not always representative choices. In the all-voter primary, 3 Democrats split 52% of the vote, enabling the 2 Republicans to advance & then win the seat in November.

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US Senate Montana election, 2012: Democrats won 10 U.S. Senate seats w/<50% in 1998-2016. In 2012, Jon Tester won by just 0.3%. A Libertarian had 6.6%, boosted by ad buy from Tester-aligned operatives seeking to split GOP vote.


30/xpropublica.org/article/in-mon…
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U.S. Senate primary in Missouri, 2012: Sen. McCaskill (D) boasted about her operatives using plurality voting to help controversial GOP Rep. Todd Akin win GOP primary w/36%. She won easily in November, although lost to a stronger Republican in 2018.

31/xpolitico.com/magazine/story…

Egyptian Presidential Election, 2012: Egypt’s “Arab Spring” has ended w/an effective dictatorship. 2012 was a turning point. The Muslim Brotherhood's Morsi won, but the 2 polarizing runoff candidates together won only 48% in 1st round. See analysis:

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Maine Governor Election, 2010: After the 2 previous Maine governors also won with <40%, Paul LePage won the GOP gubernatorial primary w/38% & the general w/ 37%. He was reelected w/48%. Part of his legacy may be voter approval of ranked choice voting.

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New York US Senate elections: Some argue fusion voting avoids spoilers, but in 1970 Buckley won w/39% over 2 major party nominees. In 1980, D’Amato won w/45% also due to split votes.
2019/04/with-hollings-death-new-yorks-buckley-oldest-ex-senator.htm34/xnymag.com/intelligencer/

Ranked choice voting is a proven reform used in Alaska & Maine to elect president & Congress. It’s used to elect Ireland’s president, including when Mary Robinson won a comeback win in 1990 to become its 1st woman president.


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Ranked choice voting can be a proportional system, as to be used this year in Portland (OR) for city council & proposed in Congress w/Fair Representation Act.


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Ranked choice voting is used by all voters in at least 1 election in Australia, Ireland, Malta, New Zealand, Northern Ireland & Scotland & in 2 states & 50+ cities in the USA. Visit @fairvote to learn more - & get involved!

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