Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 Profile picture
Jan 19 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I wasn't going to weigh into this, but since everyone else is... here goes.

The myth of the "luxury condo", particularly outside of the GTA and GVA, needs to die.

Condos *are* affordable homes. It's non-condos that are luxury housing.

And I can prove it... with data. A 🧵.
Let's look at this chunk of #ldnont and surrounding towns, including Dorchester. currently has 1,110 sale listings in this area. (I put a minimum price of 50K to eliminate rentals accidentally classified as sales, and 1+ bedroom to filter out empty land) Realtor.ca
Image
Finding any kind of affordability in #ldnont is tough. Of those 1,110 listings, there's only 8 under $200,000, and another 24 under $300,000.

I put the listings into 8 groups, based on price and whether it's a condo or a "freehold".
And here's the data... 81% of the units in the least expensive category are condos. And in the most expensive category? *4%* are condos. Image
And if you prefer a graphical representation of the data...

In short, this "luxury condo" thing is utter nonsense, and our housing discourse would be so much stronger if we abandoned this myth. Image

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More from @MikePMoffatt

Jan 14
Short thread time, with a spoiler. We've got 9 months of population growth data for Canada. Here's how much higher non-permanent resident growth (international students, TFWs, etc.) and, to a lesser extent, immigration is relative to historical averages.

🧵time! Image
A question I get asked a *lot* is, "How much of our recent population growth is simply catching up for the lost years of the pandemic?"

Turns out, some of it was. In 2022. Image
If we break the data down into 3-year chunks, we see that 2017-19 and 2020-22 were nearly identical. So any "catch-up" effect was over by 2022. Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
Time for another housing thread. There's two things I keep hearing over that are demonstrably false:

- Home prices always go up
- Rising home prices necessarily mean that homes become less affordable

Both are demonstrably false. To see why, consider my hometown of #ldnont.
I grabbed this data from the London-St. Thomas Association of Realtors, from an October 2011 report. It shows home prices from 1986 to 2010.

Home prices had a peak in 1991, bottomed out in 1996, and were lower in 2002 than in 1991. 11 years, and no net home price growth. Image
But we should also keep in mind that these are *nominal* house prices, and we had a fair bit of general inflation in the 1980s. And even in the 1990s, inflation ran pretty consistently at 2%.

What if we adjusted for inflation?
Read 11 tweets
Dec 29, 2023
Six Canadian economic problems you *should* worry about.

The boy got up early, so time for a very long thread.

Yesterday, I had a thread on why a "debt bomb" is not a problem Canada should worry about.

But that does not mean all is well...

A 🧵
As always, some background:

- Canada overall is in great shape. Most countries would trade our problems for theirs in a heartbeat.
- This list of 6 isn't about any order of government or party. They're larger. More structural.
- This isn't meant to be exhaustive.

Here we go...
PROBLEM 1: THE SUFFOCATING VETOCRACY

Our housing crisis is a microcosm of Canada's larger challenges to build, well, anything, from rail lines to nuclear power plants.

Why? Because of the "suffocating vetocracy".
Read 34 tweets
Dec 28, 2023
Time for a thread on everyone's favourite subject - Canadian 10-year bond yields! And how bond markets don't think Canada's about to experience a debt bomb.

A 🧵. Image
Some clarification points before we begin:

- I'm using 10 year bonds since that's the data I have on hand.. but there's nothing particularly special about *10*
- Bond markets aren't everything
- Economies can have all kinds of issues beyond "debt bombs". Image
First thing to recognize is that global bond yields in OECD countries tend to move with each other, because of global conditions, similar decisions made by central banks, etc.

So most (but not all) movements in a country like Canada have little to do with domestic conditions. Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 18, 2023
Thread-time, on Southern Ontario's housing crisis, the province's booming population, and Ontario colleges. Lots of fun data (with sources) in this one. Image
Ontario's population has been booming since 2016 or so, outside of a dip during the pandemic, with a growth spike in the last 18 months or so.

Data source: Statcan Table 17-10-0009-01 www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…
Image
We can break Ontario's population growth into components:
- Immigration (Permanent Residents)
- Non-Permanent Residents (Int'l Students, Temporary Foreign Workers, etc.)
- Everything else (Births, Deaths, Emigration, People Moving Between Provinces, etc.)
Read 19 tweets
Dec 11, 2023
Time for a thread on why the federal government reintroducing the CMHC catalogue of housing designs could be massively transformative (but only if they're bold about implementation).

This has the potential to be massively beneficial.
globalnews.ca/news/10163033/…
There's a whole lot of questions people have about scaling up housing construction, such as:

"We can't get the approvals done now we need... how are we going to do more of them?"

"Where are we going to get the skilled workers we need?"

etc. etc.
And those are all very important questions, but too often we're limited in our thinking on how to solve them... that doubling housing construction requires doubling the size of planning staff, etc.

But there are other solutions.
Read 20 tweets

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