Thread by @DougKlain

Sources confirm that Trump is directly trying to tank Ukraine/border negotiations to deny Biden a political win and keep immigration as a campaign issue this year.

There's a few ways this might go. Few are good for Ukraine, and above all, precious time has been wasted. 🧵

https://twitter.com/bresreports/status/1750293880178647404

Recent polling (e.g. @timothymfrye) shows that Trump wields outsize influence on Republicans on Ukraine.

For Republican voters, a direct appeal from Trump against Ukraine aid torpedoes their support. Congressional Republicans know this.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Despite McConnell's comments, not all Republicans are on board.

"Somebody who is trying to defeat legislation, all in the name of running for office? That is irresponsible," @BillCassidy told @USATODAY. usatoday.com/story/news/pol…

It's possible McConnell is trying to open the path to delinking Ukraine and immigration reform so that a Ukraine (maybe w/ Israel) package can be put forward on its own merits.

As a Senate Republican staffer said privately last week, the votes for Ukraine are absolutely there.

But Trump's direct intervention could also tank a Ukraine deal. He hasn't come out publicly against yet—thankfully—but doing so would make it very difficult for Republicans to defy him in an election year. He'd single them out, & doing the right thing just isn't worth it to many.

No matter what, it's worth remembering just how much time has been wasted here. Ukraine is running out of ammo, more missiles are getting through air defense, more people are dying.

This delay is happening because some are choosing political power over national interest.

The worst of cynical politics are on display from Republicans and Trump here. McCarthy thought linking Ukraine/border could save his speakership, the White House was willing to make a deal, and now Ukraine is being treated like nothing more than a bargaining chip.

From colleagues doing regular meetings with congressional offices, there is zero energy or motivation to make something happen on Ukraine. They support Ukraine, but they don't feel the urgency or like they have a chance of making something happen themselves.

Many Republicans want to aid Ukraine, but they won't break with Trump over it.

For European (and especially Ukrainian) observers, remember that many of these officials could have been killed by Trump's people on January 6, yet they still stand by him. Trump's the X factor here.

Above all, this shows that US politics in 2024 are too unmoored from rational statecraft for Europe and Ukraine to rely on America. That is a devastating reality.

I'm hoping to publish a more detailed article soon on what Europe can do to hedge against a second Trump admin.

The coming days will be critical for Ukraine.

Does Trump come out against a deal? Does the Senate bring something to a vote anyway? Can Ukraine and immigration be delinked?

America's allies are watching. Putin is watching. Ukrainians are fighting and dying.

What are we doing?