Robert Sterling Profile picture
Jan 26 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
What's happening on the southern border right now is nothing less than a catastrophe. But I had no bad it truly was until I looked at the data myself.

I downloaded and analyzed 23 years of Border Patrol data today. Here are six charts showing just how bad the situation is 👇 Image
How much worse has Biden been than other presidents when it comes to the border?

In the 34 months for which data is available, Biden has had a staggering 6.7M encounters at the southern border.

In comparison, at this stage, Bush had 2.8M, Obama had 1.2M, and Trump had 1.4M. Image
In other words, 34 months in, Biden has had more encounters than Bush, Obama, and Trump did COMBINED during their first 34 months (6.7M vs. 5.5M).

Biden's 6.7M encounters in 34 months are also more than Trump and Obama had in the combined 144 months of their ENTIRE presidencies.
On a monthly basis, here's how bad Biden's presidency looks compared to Bush, Obama, and Trump.

Bush and Trump's worst months were better than Biden's best months. And we can only dream about returning to Obama's levels.

Notice how encounters spike starting late 2020... Image
On a trailing 12 months basis, Bush briefly had 1M encounters, Obama was consistently below 500k, and Trump rarely exceeded 500k.

On the other hand, Biden has had 2M encounters during nearly every rolling 12-month period of his administration, and it's now more than 2.5M. Image
If you look at the number of months during which there were more than 100k encounters:

Trump had only one month.

Obama didn't have any.

Bush had 21 months across eight years (96 months).

And Biden has had ALL 34 MONTHS of his presidency with 100k+. Image
32 out of Biden's 34 months have exceeded 150k encounters.

The only other recent president who ever exceeded that level was Bush, for four out of his 96 months. Image
Looking at months with 200k encounters, Biden is the only president who's reached that level. And, at 18 out of 34 months, it's been the majority of his months in office. Image
If anyone tells you this is a minor issue that "ultra-MAGA right-wingers" are blowing out of proportion, they aren't just wrong. They're maliciously disingenuous.

All of these charts are based on CBP data. This is real.

It's a massive problem. And we need to address it NOW.

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More from @RobertMSterling

Aug 7, 2023
There will never be a US vs. China hot war.

Why?

It’s not because of iPhones or TikTok.

It’s because we feed the Chinese people.

If China ever attacks us, farmland roughly the size of the state of Utah stops supplying them.

Read on for just how huge 🇺🇸/🇨🇳 ag trade is. Image
Before I get into all the back story and details here, let me just say:

Yes, you read that correctly.

The land mass in America dedicated to Chinese agriculture exports is about the size of the entire state of Utah. All 85,000 square miles of it. Image
You see, China has a problem: As its population has grown, it hasn't been that good at feeding its own people. By 2030, more than 40% of Chinese calories will be imported from outside the country.

And the US, aside from Brazil, is the largest supplier. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jul 31, 2023
Stop scrolling! Don't shake this thread off!

Introducing...

Private equity firms as Taylor Swift looks! 🔥🔥

(Look what you guys made me do.)

Starting with:

BAIN CAPITAL

(1/16) Image
KKR

(2/16) Image
CARLYLE GROUP

(3/16) Image
Read 16 tweets
Jun 8, 2023
Stop reading threads about office politics at the PGA.

Forget about paying Phil $200M, or offering Tiger $800M.

If you want to grasp how Saudi Arabia took over American golf, you need to understand Aramco, the greatest cash-generation machine in world history.

Let's dive in. Image
You're probably familiar with Aramco. In fact, a lot of you have probably read books about it—the history of it is fascinating.

But, if Aramco is a new name to you, just know that it's the Saudi oil company.

And it absolutely prints money. A staggering amount of it.
How much cash does Aramco generate for the Saudi government?

Think of it this way: In 2022, Exxon Mobil, America's largest energy company, paid dividends of slightly under $15B to its shareholders... Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 4, 2023
My former boss’s boss’s boss’s boss’s boss controls a $100B+ conglomerate, w/ a personal net worth of $68B.

Think he has nothing in common with the world of small business?

You're wrong.

Here's what Charles Koch can teach us about the silver tsunami of SMB owners retiring. 🌊
This is going to be a looooong thread. So I'm going to break it into 3 parts.

In part 1, I'll talk about succession dynamics at Koch.

In part 2, I'll relate that to the world of SMB.

In part 3, I'll talk about a novel approach that most searchers overlook.

Ready? Let's go! 🚀
PART 1: SUCCESSION AT KOCH INDUSTRIES

For most people here, you've probably worked at a large business. Maybe a Fortune 500 company, or a major investment bank, or a large PE fund.

You're likely familiar with how large corporations work.

But that's far from how Koch operates.
Read 39 tweets
Feb 25, 2023
There's still *a lot* we don't know about the effects of the East Palestine train derailment.

But, if dioxins do get in the water table and the soil, the impact to the local farm industry could be disastrous.

Here's a quick summary of what the economic fallout could look like.
In part one, we'll cover some background on industry dynamics, including a group referred to as ABCD, a pretentious word called "oligopsony," and Chinese political theatrics.

In part two, we'll cover why all of this matters to the East Palestine region.

Let's get started.
PART ONE: AG INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

According to the USDA, there are slightly over 2M farms in the US.

There are also about 330M people in the US consuming the production thereof.

You would think it would be a highly decentralized industry, right?

You couldn't be more wrong.
Read 27 tweets
Feb 24, 2023
⚠️ Rare Serious Post Alert! ⚠️

I am one of those people who, most of the time, is annoyingly happy and positive about life. Think Ted Lasso with Jordans and in a board room instead of on a soccer field (sadly, though, no mustache).

But, on rare occasions, I lose that.

(1/n)
I spent the past couple days in a funk—unmotivated. Struggling. Doubting myself.

And for no good reason. It just sort of… happened.

For 3 or 4 days, I thought it wouldn’t end. Because that’s how something like that works, right? It kills the light at the end of your tunnel.
This morning, after not sleeping great, I woke up and felt completely normal.

I’m looking back on the person I was this week, and I don’t even recognize that guy. It’s just some stranger who is now shrouded in fog to me.

Next time that guy is you…
Read 7 tweets

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