Thread by @wprzybylski

Given so much frenzy ⚡️ in the EU about the potential 🇺🇸 Trump comeback, let me shed some light on what Europe could actually do about it.

We wrote this
w/ @Pawel_Karbo @MF_GOV_PL ex @Bruegel_org a few months back. There is still time to take advice 🧶 1/euobserver.com/opinion/157449

1st Assume this:

Moscow's military and nuclear threats will hang over Europe for decades, regardless of the security architecture we design.

As Russia becomes weaker — politically, economically, demographically, and militarily — it will get more dangerous and unpredictable 2/

Even when peace has been achieved, the 🇷🇺 menace will not disappear thanks to the political backing of China, which finds it suitable to have the Americans and Europeans engaged as it is trying to build "a new type of international relations" president Xi Jinping aspires to 3/

In such an environment, Europeans must take every opportunity to strengthen effective alliances

Military assistance by 🇺🇸 to 🇺🇦 was impossible to attain at such scale and speed anywhere else. In effect, the partnership between the US and Europe has been regenerated. 4/

A transatlantic bond, however, is not a given. @pewresearch poll illustrates a drop in favourable views of the US in 11 out of 15 countries, including all European G7 members 5/pewresearch.org/global/2023/06…

In parallel, @gmfus Transatlantic Trends 2023 noted a six percent drop in
German reliability toward the US.
The prospects do not look much better on the other side of the Atlantic. 6/gmfus.org/news/transatla…

Trump wants to establish "peace" within 24 hours. Appeasement w/ fatal ramifications for Europe.
There seems to be not enough preparedness for such a
scenario.
Despite the war happening on European soil, the military budgets of Western allies increased only marginally. 7/

This process still needs catching up. (Godspeed @ThierryBreton!)

Given all the risks, the scenario of Trump's comeback should become a central consideration for Europe.

Even if the odds of the former president's return were 50%, Europeans must be ready 8/

Can Europe do anything about it in such a short
timeframe?

A doomed political and security scenario for Europe can
be avoided if — before (and IF) Trump comes to office — Europeans are ready to sustain military aid to Ukraine on their own, and for a significant time. 9/

To this end, a European coalition of the willing should speed up short-term military supplies while increasing its arms production.
The idea would be to contract enough ammunition and weapons to stockpile before isolationism in the US returns to the stage. 10/

In the first instance, purchases need to be made in the United States and later in other Nato allies, such as Canada. What would be the merit of such an approach? 11/

First: Europe would be more sovereign because it would be more affluent in military hardware and software thus better prepared to defend itself against ever more unpredictable Russia. 12/

Second: A stockpile of arms and ammunition would allow Ukraine to continue a counteroffensive. This would buy invaluable time if Trump, Putin, or Xi were to dictate European security architecture. 13/

Third: European democrats would strengthen their hand against autocrats, both abroad and at home. 14/

Fourth: Europe's purchases could have a positive effect on American voters, who would see that military equipment "made in America" is being paid for by Europeans and helps American jobs. 15/

Democratic leaders of Europe @EmmanuelMacron @RishiSunak @Bundeskanzler @sanchezcastejon @donaldtusk @vonderleyen have 12m to prepare for a
doomed European political and security scenario. Otherwise, the history of Europe — and their own — may not turn out that well. 16/

Europe may not be a military superpower, but it is an
economic power and can afford to help Ukraine win
peace. As the Roman orator Cicero said, the sinews of war are infinite money. /END