Thread by @Fritschner

The future of Republicans' push to impeach Sec. Mayorkas is imo more complex than it seems. The question of when they might try again could vary greatly based on procedural, practical, electoral, and political factors. Some thoughts, with an explanation of why none of it matters–

https://twitter.com/mychaelschnell/status/1755041408388415989

Procedural. Last night's vote failed 215-215. Blake Moore changed his vote so he could seek reconsideration of the resolution, which he then did. His request for a recorded vote on a motion to reconsider was postponed (by Speaker Johnson), under Rule XX

https://twitter.com/ringwiss/status/1755229537384681635

The relevant text of Rule XX, Clause 8 gives Johnson two legislative days to hold that vote, the first of which is about to end, the second of which will be a Pro Forma on Friday. Time's up.

They may jury-rig a way around this but that's the plain text reading of the rules.

Practical. If they do figure out procedure (or, more likely, just ignore the rules), you get into intricate vote math. They thought they had us last night because of health absences, only to lose the vote because of their own health absence (Scalise). BUT-

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1754147967148150853

Scalise is not the only piece in motion on the board. Both sides have multiple members with medical issues, both sides will have members with family or unexpected commitments that arise. That's life. The last time the House had all but 1 member present and voting was 2 months ago

People are gaming out scenarios where Scalise returns and all members are present and voting. History suggests this is highly unlikely. And it assumes no Republicans change their position in either direction. This is shaky ground to build on. And even if it holds, you get into...

Electoral. There are 4 vacancies in the House now. On Tuesday, NY-3 will have a special election [I'll come back to this]. The next special election, in NY-26, is not scheduled yet but will be in mid-to-late April. BEFORE red seat vacancies are filled in Ohio and California.

NY-3 is trickier to game out than some are saying. For the purposes of House voting math it's not enough to have Tom Suozzi win the election, you need his win to be communicated by NY election officials to the House Clerk, and he must be sworn in. How long does that take? Well-

Pat Ryan won a close special election in NY in 2022. AP called his race just after midnight on the night of the 8/23/22 special; the Clerk was officially notified of his election 10 days later, 9/2/22. The House was in recess so he was sworn in the night they returned, 9/13/22.

If Tom Suozzi wins on Feb. 13, he could get here and be sworn in quickly or it could take days or weeks depending on the margin. There's no way to know. Republicans' best path if Scalise is up to it is not to leave that to chance, but to rush this early next week. And so...

Here's why none of this matters.

Political. Not one House Republican who voted for this believes Secretary Mayorkas will actually be removed from office by the Senate. The impeachment of Sec. Mayorkas is an act of political messaging, it is the entire purpose of the endeavor.

The simple fact is Republicans have utterly botched, blown, and bungled this impeachment for political messaging purposes.

Sure they could sneak it past us when Dean Phillips leaves or rush Scalise back from cancer treatment or do it later etc, but it's just face-saving now.

They wanted to unite in an attack on the Admin over their strongest issue. They failed spectacularly. Their members echoed conservative scholars saying the impeachment was unconstitutional. They lost the vote. And this happened as their political narrative on the border crumbled.

At some point between now and July the Republicans will ~probably~ have the votes to pass this impeachment resolution. But the whole thing is just an embarrassment now, and may well be more harmful than helpful for electoral/political purposes. The incompetence is mind-boggling.

Most of you know this already but just to state plainly, the impeachment itself obviously has no merit. The Republicans know that, they know the Constitution sets a standard requiring impeachment over specific high crimes and misdemeanors, which their articles fail to identify.