Thread by @wytham88

How does funding uncertainty affect science? Every Oct, we get headlines bemoaning the impact of the federal budgeting process on science. Does it matter that grant $$ takes a bit longer to get out the door, or is it just a nuisance we can deal with?

It turns out that this is really not great for people who work in science. Funding delays of > 30 days lead to:

- 40% increase in exiting US labor force
- 20% decrease in wages
- Postdocs and grad students heavily affected

weiyangtham.com/files/tcps_fun…

Our focus is on the R01 grant, the NIH's largest funding mechanism, which can be renewed multiple times. The Q we ask is, what happens if your lab was successfully renewed but had a gap in funding? I.e. everyone in our sample got $$$, but some got it on time and some didn't

We're able to link funding delays to labor market outcomes using some v cool data that connects grant expenditures all the way to tax and unemployment insurance records. This means labor market histories across all occupations - faculty, postdocs, grad students, staff

So what happens if funding for the lab you work in was delayed? We see an immediate and persistent increase (left) in the likelihood that you become "nonemployed", i.e. no longer appear in US tax data.

If you were part of a richer lab (right), that cushions the blow

What exactly does "not being in the tax data" mean? We find that a majority of this effect is associated with not being in the 2020 Decennial Census, suggesting permanent departures from the US

If you remain in the US (and therefore we can see your earnings), you also earn less

(yeah we know this conditions on post-treatment outcomes. not ideal, but it's important and we try to discuss carefully)

Another key takeaway: Trainees (postdocs, grad students) and other non-faculty bear the brunt of these effects

The pandemic highlighted that even though we often think of science as a long, incremental process, speed and urgency can really matter for scientific progress.

But what our paper shows is that the implications go beyond just generating research faster. There's an entire labor market that depends on grants, and the bureaucratic details of how we disburse them matters for the retention of skills and talent

Again, link here:

Also, s/o to my outstanding coauthors @josephstaudt @BitsyPerlman @stephaniedcheng for grinding this paper out through a pandemic, cross-state moves, graduation, new kids, ...weiyangtham.com/files/tcps_fun…

cc: @MattHourihan @jddwor @mattsclancy @heidilwilliams_ @IFP