1. Assessing health risks: 🧵
A mantra in my analysis work is this: *risk mitigation can create new risks*.
A non-Covid related example: in general, soldiers only wear armour on their head and torso (helmet and Kevlar vest). Why aren't they equipped with leg / arm armour?
A mantra in my analysis work is this: *risk mitigation can create new risks*.
A non-Covid related example: in general, soldiers only wear armour on their head and torso (helmet and Kevlar vest). Why aren't they equipped with leg / arm armour?
2. The answer is fundamentally this: extra armour on arms and legs would offer marginal extra protection at the expense of mobility and speed (body armour is heavy). As such, the effect of extra protection would actually be *negative*: moving very slow makes you an easy target.
3. As such, increased mitigation against one specific risk (in this example, protection from shrapnel injuries on the arms and legs) actually *creates* a much larger risk - the vastly reduced speed of the soldier makes injury / death much more likely on the battlefield.
4. This example serves to illustrate how people need to think about health risks. It is absolutely understandable that many people reading this are laser-focussed on not getting Covid, but the fact is there are, obviously, a huge multitude of other serious health risks to people.
5. As such, and I cannot stress this enough, avoiding healthcare is a very bad idea. By mitigating your risk of getting Covid to the point of completely avoiding healthcare settings, people are creating a new and serious risk to their own health.
6. Now, that is not to say that one cannot attempt to mitigate one's own risk in a healthcare setting by doing all the usual stuff - wearing a respirator, using a portable HEPA, asking staff to mask (although I'm well aware some may not) - but...
7. not attending healthcare at all is a very bad idea from a risk calculus point of view. Unless you're a medical professional, the unknowns are too great.
Any infection can kill.
Detecting and treating cancer early massively improves survival chances.
Any infection can kill.
Detecting and treating cancer early massively improves survival chances.
8. Detecting and treating chronic illness early improves outcomes.
The great danger of focussing entirely on one threat is you develop tunnel vision. This tunnel vision is, in itself, a significant risk.
Example: that red rash on your leg could be cellulitis.
The great danger of focussing entirely on one threat is you develop tunnel vision. This tunnel vision is, in itself, a significant risk.
Example: that red rash on your leg could be cellulitis.
9. Without assessment and treatment, that cellulitis could lead to sepsis, which could easily kill you.
This is an independent risk. It would be true whether it was 2019 or now.
/end
This is an independent risk. It would be true whether it was 2019 or now.
/end
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