Thread by @michaeldweiss

Estonia's foreign intelligence report is out. A few highlights to follow 🧵: raport.valisluureamet.ee/2024/en/

"Russia has managed to recruit at least as many contract soldiers as needed to compensate for losses on the battlefield and create some new units, such as the 40th Army Corps and the 25th Combined Arms Army, both of which, however, are reported to be understaffed."

"In 2023, the Russian Armed Forces achieved only tactical victories but fell short of strategically significant territorial gains."

"Nonetheless, they were relatively successful in repelling Ukrainian counterattacks from statically prepared defensive positions, which did not require highly trained units."

"Russia is likely to persist with its extensive attrition-based warfare against Ukraine throughout the year, and Ukraine’s resilience largely depends on financial and military assistance from the West."

"The Kremlin is preparing for a prolonged conflict with Ukraine, necessitating additional armies and army corps (3rd and 40th Army Corps, 18th Army and 25th Army), for which dozens of new manoeuvre, combat support and combat service support units are being formed."

"If Russia manages to implement the reform, NATO could face a Soviet-style mass army in the next decade. This army is likely to be technologically inferior to NATO allies’ defence forces in most areas, except for electronic warfare and long-range strike capabilities..."

"However, its military potential would be significant, owing to its size, firepower (including artillery and numerous inexpensive combat drones), combat experience and reserves..."

"Defending against a possible conventional attack from such an army would require allied defence forces and defence industries to be significantly more prepared, capable and better-stocked with ammunition and materiel than they currently are."

"In 2022, Russia’s production of new artillery ammunition alone reached approximately 600,000 units, roughly equivalent to the combined output of the United States and European Union member states."

"[I]t is almost certain that Western ammunition deliveries to Ukraine in 2024 will not be able to keep pace with the supplies available for the Russian Armed Forces. The gap in available artillery ammunition between Ukraine and Russia is expected to widen even more in 2024."

"As of January 2024, [Russian] losses included over 2,600 tanks, 5,100 armoured personnel carriers and 600 self-propelled artillery units. To compensate for the losses, Russia has turned to its inventory ofarmoured vehicles in long-term storage..."

"In the short term, [Russia] is likely incapable of significantly expanding the production of new armoured vehicles. Nevertheless, refurbishing preserved armoured vehicles from storage can compensate for losses in Ukraine for several more years."

"Prigozhin’s death on 23 August 2023 shocked Lukashenka. On the same evening, the Belarusian Security Council convened, the KGB special unit Alfa was put on alert, and there were disruptions in mobile internet service in the Tsel camp area."

Wagner no threat to neighboring countries. "Lukashenka [claimed] that Wagner fighters wanted to go on an 'excursion' to the West and visit Warsaw. A swift and assertive response from Poland, Lithuania and Latvia..."

"(strengthening the borders with armed forces and closing border crossing points) surprised and alarmed Lukashenka. He ordered Wagner to withdraw from the country’s western borders to avoid further escalation."

"For many Wagner fighters, entering into a contract with the Russian defence ministry is unacceptable; given their previous combat experience, entering into such an agreement would likely result in being sent back to the Bakhmut front line."

"Even if Putin doesn’t get everything he wants through negotiations, Russia will rely on its past experience and conviction that compromise and acceptance of unfavourable conditions are only temporary. With time to accumulate power, Russia can launch another attack on Ukraine."

"Russia would see a victory in Ukraine as a green light to reshape the European security environment and as part of a broader challenge to Western rules- and value-based principles and order."

"Russia believes that time is on its side in the war with Ukraine. But only if the West tires. Therefore, the Kremlin is placing its bets on war fatigue in the West and is working to amplify it..."

"Putin calculates that without sufficient Western support, Ukraine will find it challenging to withstand Russia in the long term and achieve strategic success."

"Due to the war, the Kremlin must try to shape a favourable information environment. Russia uses various means to do this, including public communication, political and diplomatic channels, and covert communication..."

"Russia seeks to test and normalise possible parameters for a frozen conflict through unofficial channels. Russia uses both its established network of 'useful idiots' and the Western expert community for this purpose."

"Georgia has allowed virtually unlimited numbers of Russian citizens and capital to enter the country. Additionally, Georgia has approved the resumption of air travel with Moscow, enabling Russians to use Georgia as a convenient layover when travelling to Europe..."

"Russia sees Azerbaijan as a valuable partner in developing strategic transit corridors and ensuring the sustainability of its economy..."

"Meanwhile, Armenia is preoccupied with its own security concerns to such an extent that Ukraine often goes unnoticed as Armenia grapples with the pressure and influence of Russia."

"Moldova is one of the few among these countries to choose a pro-Western course. It has banned major Russian propaganda channels, shut down numerous local internet portals disseminating Moscow’s war propaganda..."

"...and decisively resisted political parties directly controlled and funded by Russia."

"Moscow is attempting to gain control of Moldova by taking advantage of democratic elections – the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 parliamentary election."

""In the early summer of 2023, the officials organising the [Russia-Africa Summit] were instructed to reduce expenses, leading to cuts in the hospitality package..."

"This financial shortfall impacted the event itself, where there were not enough vehicles for the delegations, causing some attendees from Africa to remain confined to their hotels, and even basic supplies like stationery were subject to strict limits."

"The outcome was less than satisfactory for Russia, aiming to assert its position against the West and validate its role as a credible partner and friend to Africa..."

"...The summit did not mark a new era or a significant leap in Russia-Africa relations. Russia has set its sights on a renewed attempt in 2026."

"Iran has now supplied the Russian Armed Forces with hundreds of Shahed and other drone types, which have been used in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure..."

"Furthermore, a joint facility for assembling and producing Shahed-136 drones is under construction in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan."

"As Russia is not a viable economic alternative to the West, Iran seeks to maintain relations with the West that occasionally allow for the easing of sanctions imposed on Iran, thus bolstering its economy..."

"It is also important for Iran to maintain its image as a responsible, rule-abiding international actor. This is why Iran has consistently denied any form of military support to Russia in the war against Ukraine."

"While delivering Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would mark an advancement in Russian-Iranian relations, it would probably not provide Russia with a significant breakthrough in the war in Ukraine..."

"...as Iran’s capabilities are likely insufficient to supply Russia with large quantities of missiles over an extended period."

"Russia’s continued condescension toward Iranians is evident, something Russian officials struggle to conceal in bilateral meetings..."

"For example, during the visit of Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to Moscow in the spring of 2023, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov refused to meet the Iranian minister at his car to personally accompany him into the Foreign Ministry building..."

"...a gesture that was expected by the Iranian side. In private conversations, Russian officials have also alluded to Iranians lacking a sense of reality and compared them to various parasites [!]."

"Moscow may hope that by adopting an approach favourable to Arab states regarding Palestine, it can contribute to its long-term economic interests in the Middle East. This, in turn, could help reduce the impact of Western sanctions..."

Re: tours of occupied Ukraine by Western tankies, et al.: "the Russian state usually covers the expenses of these field trips in one way or another. In most cases, the travel and accommodation costs of journalists participating in the tours are reimbursed..."

"...but in many cases, the Kremlin also compensates participants financially for their 'journalistic' contributions."

"While the media tours for foreign observers are sometimes organised through official Russian channels, such as the press services of the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, more often than not, various seemingly non-governmental aid funds..."

"and other organisations with ties to Russia take on the role of organiser...On the one hand, it creates an additional illusion of the participants’ freedom and independence. On the other hand, it provides a cover for the activities of Russian special services."

"The core of participants in these tours consists of representatives of various Western fringe media outlets, often with a penchant for conspiracy theories, as well as various pseudo-journalist bloggers and social media activists."

Estonian foreign intel names names:

Ha ha ha: "For those who prefer not to find their names and images alongside those of FSB or other Russian intelligence officers in our publications, potentially affecting their associations with the West, we extend an invitation to get in touch..."

"We are confident that mutually advantageous arrangements can be negotiated!"

Yikes: "We have credible information about a Chinese manufacturer working on Lidar systems for self-driving cars that are intended to scan the car’s entire surroundings and transmit the information to a database in China..."

"While a device collecting data for autonomous operation should delete any non-essential data, this Chinese company aims to transfer the complete environmental data to a Chinese database..."

"This raises concerns that Chinese technology-enabled self-driving cars could be vulnerable to exploitation for intelligence purposes."

Zoomers posting themselves getting fired to TikTok might well get offered new jobs, complete with healthy relocation packages.

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