Thread by @jaganmsna

I shall be tweeting on 8th edition of TIA 20-20 Ideas summit (2024 episode) today. This is organized by @TIA_Investors .

Here is a screenshot of ideas shared last year in same summit, by different speakers with approx returns.

First speaker is G Maran of @unificapital .

He speaks about Regulatory, Technology and Demographic tailwind role in investing. The last one is often most powerful and lasts for 25 years ,really long

63% of India's GDP is Domestic consumption - G Maran

His stock Idea is Eicher Motors. Delhi HQ but manufacturing largely in South India.
Right now 1.8% of households have a RE motorcycle.
Explains rationale, group history etc. They now sell 7L motorcycles. Betting on demographics plus income growth, it is a great bet.

Concludes presentation saying Tailwind of demographics supports this stock idea.

Next Speaker is Balaji Vaidhyanath
@nbalajiv of NAFA Asset Managers. Earlier was part of Sundaram Asset Management Co.
#TIA2020

His stock Idea is Castrol India. MNC mkt leader in Lubricant industry. Underperforming index in recent years.
Mkt share of 20-39% in PVs .
20K Mcap, 3% divi yield. Promoter (British Petroleum)holding is 51%. 1200 cr cash on books.
Goes to explain reasons for recent derating.

Drop in promoter stake, listing of competitor Gulf Oil, lower sales growth plus fear of being a sunset industry leading to recent derating.
Suddenly company growth higher in recent years.
Diversifying into EV transmission fluid, thermal fluid , Cooling Fluid of data centres etc.

To summarize - Castrol India is ready for a future with less ICE vehicles. They are diversifying beyond auto lubricants. This even as there is possibility of ICE Vehicles existing in future.
Gross margins 40% around if Brent Oil at 82$
Assuming 7% p.a growth 50% upside from CMP.

Also hints that low growth listed MNCs with small upside in growth rare can rerate well . Concludes presentation .

Next speaker is @bala_vidya , co founder of @primeinvestorin
#TIA2020

@bala_vidya @primeinvestorin Begins stating India is 3rd largest world mkt for PVs (Cars) today.
In this, Double digit growth for premium cars.
Mentions how SUVs were most popular PV segment, in 2007 itself in NCR ; Now same happening all of India.

Stock idea is related to this and is retailer of Luxury Cars.
Landmark Cars .
63 Showrooms, 54 Workshops, pan India presence. Associated with Niche OEMs like Mercedes, Honda.
73% from New car sales, 19% from after sales service.

Key Strengths : Presence in fast growing luxury segment , lucrative high ROCE (36%) after sales service segment, clarity in capital allocation. Asset light. 25% of outlets are acquired from weak players. Pre Owned cars now a small segment.
Challenge: Not a high ROE biz.

Possible game changer is cut in Import duty for Luxury vehicles.
Stock at 42 PE ,not cheap but on depressed earnings.
Concludes presentation.

Next speaker is Ankit Kanodia from @SmartSyncServ
#TIA2020
His stock Idea is CarTradeTech

@SmartSyncServ 2021 listed at 6300 cr vs 3000 cr today. Stock crashed post IPO due to : excess valuation, 100% OFS, 1 time non cash ESOP.
Goes to explain evolution of this company.
Key biz - New and used vehicle sales and also OLX India (classifieds biz)
Asset lite biz where op lev can set in.

Asset lite biz, negligible inventory etc. Owner is a good capital allocator.
1 yr forward PE is 13.
Biggest risk is execution.
Concludes presentation.

Next speaker is Abhijit Chokshi of @stockifi_Invest
#TIA2020

His stock Idea is Gujarat Pipavav.
India has 28 major ports and 200 minor ones.
GPPL owned by Dutch based APM terminals.
Location on strategic place.
Benefits from DFC ,with dedicated rail connectivity.
60% capacity utilization now. Debt free.

Only 2 listed ports in world are debt free and one of them is GPPL.
Recent tariff hike to help
PE 18x reasonable (vs 31 of Adani Ports).
Concludes presentation.

Next speaker is G Chokkalingam of
Equinomics Research Pvt Ltd.
His stock Idea is : Vindhya Telelinks
#TIA2020

Consolidation in Birla Group cos is seen as trigger. Manufacturing of Cables, EPC of Telecom projects. Now into water biz
VTL value of investment more than Enterprise value . A rare holdco with own growing core business.
Concludes presentation.

Next speaker is Prajesh Maroo
of Moneycurve Analytics.
His stock Idea is Control Print India.
They sell printers and consumables the printer being used to print details of products of manufacturing.
#TIA2020

It's catering to B2B clients, mostly leading consumer brand. They sell printer at cost but consumables at 25% margin. Latter is 66% of revenues.
Entry barriers - Low cost item but last part of manufacturing so critical.
Industry (coding n marking) - oligopoly 4 players 90% share

4 players incl 3 MNCs and Control Print.
New regulations incl mandatory QR code for 300 medicines to prevent counterfeit drugs.
Financials - Consisent CAGR over 15+ years ,both revenues and EBIDTA. Good dividend payout ratio. Debt free, Mcap 1400 cr, PE of 25 trailing. EV/EBIT 16

Concludes presentation quoting Buffet and stressing LT prospects are good.

Next speaker is Saurabh Basrar of Banyan Capital Advisors.
His stock Idea is GHCL textiles.
Originally as Meenakhi mills ,part of GHCL till demerger last year.
Describes financial and EBIDTA of the business

Mcap 760 cr,nil debt, 1300 asset value. Sees 2-2.5x upside via 10x-12X PAT.
Concludes presentation.

Next speaker is Arvind Kothari of Niveshay Investment Advisors
#TIA2020

Discusses about demographics and rising premiumisation. His stock idea is KDDL . Play on India luxury through luxury watch retail.
Ethos store chain focus.
Significant manufacturing of Watch component for global luxury watch brands. Lot of Precision engineering done.

Mentions there will be 1.6 mill HNIs in next few years in India vs less than 56000 luxury watches to be sold. Hence thesis on a large sustained CAGR .
Concludes presentation.

Next speaker is @prabhakarkudva , co founder of Samvith Capital
#TIA2020

Discusses his framework of investing.
Big moves of stocks happens after a period of Neglect followed by a Catalyst.
E.g - PSUs - Were hated and Neglected, few years back.
Then came Catalyst of earning surprises. Rerating followed.

He now speaks about his stock idea - Sanghvi movers
Buys Cranes, rents to infra cos. 5th largest crane hiring Co, 380+ Cranes owned. Biggest user industry is Wind Turbine installation

Reasonable valuation of 18X PE, with good industry growth.
Optionality- EPC services to infrastructure industry. Currently only 2-3% of revenues.
Risk- Infra tailwind peters out.
Concludes the presentation by mentioning his approach to portfolio construction with 30 odd names.

Post Lunch break first speaker is Ishmohit Arora of SOIC.
His idea to mining industry
#TIA2020

Iron ore bidding mechanism change. Advantage for those miners with long dated old lease Regime.
This commodity btw is globally priced. Important to look at low debt, be a low cost producer in industry, have a unique proposition etc.

The business has 2 mining assets, one of them very high grade iron ore.

Stress test -EBIDTA margins at lowest possible commodity price at cyclical low -This company does well on that metric.
Gives details of peers etc. Stock name is Godavari Power Ispat Ltd. 10000 cr Mcap .
Details risks and highlights how they are debt free. Ends presentation.

Next speaker is - Tushar Vohra from Invexa Capital .
Behind by briefing on his investment philosophy. His stock idea is Shilpa Medicare Ltd.
Sees 4x EBIDTA few years from now.
They r into API formulations, biosimilars etc strong RnD framework

Recent times their API biz investments has gone into some long gestational biz which should give returns in coming years.
Biosimilar side, so far no returns but turnaround likely soon.

Concludes by detailing turnaround on Biosimilars ,Formulations side . Also preferred partner of Pharma majors due to manufacturing capabilities.

Next speaker is Ganeshram Jayaraman from Spark Institutional Equities.
His stock Idea is Sundaram Finance
He has been tracking the stock since 2001.
#TIA2020

His choice is based on this :
Got listed 50 yrs back all weather stock, excellent in Corp Guv and on capital allocation.
40000 cr loan book, in business for 70 years, have a home finance subsidiary and AMC and General Insurance business.
Haven't diluted capital for 50 yrs.

Last 10 yrs been very risk averse, lost mkt share, opened very few new branches.
Competition high from banks.
Didn't enter LCVs ,tractors.
Now this is changing.

What shouldn't change - 70% customer retention, capital allocation
What's changing- Entering Non vehicle finance, expanding outside South India, better product mix..
Last 5 year growth lower than peers.
Now it's changing for better.

Concludes presentation on optimistic note.

Next speaker is Vivek Mashrani.
@MashraniVivek
His stock pick is : Poly Medicure
#TIA2020

@MashraniVivek Poly Medicure manufactures 1 bill devices, in 12 manufacturing plants ,160 nations they sell..
Quotes Soros saying "Good Business is boring"

Sector growing at 10-12%. Able to grow compounded 20+%,
Indias medical device mkt is 90000 cr. Growing at 16% CAGR.
Strong player in fragmented mkt with too many unorganized players.

Company started in 1995, now doing 169 devices. 67% devices into infusion therapy.
Mostly niche products they do . Specialist products

Discusses the chart and points at likely institutional accumulation happening in this stock.
Other triggers: Capex, low utilization leading to Op Leverage, domestic mkt growth.
Entry into Dialysis mkt under PLI scheme. Export opportunities, esp US mkt.
Concludes presentation .

Next speaker is :
Pawan Parag from Renaissance Investment Managers.
#TIA2020

Starts with explaining his investment framework- Sustainable Quality Growth At Reasonable Price.

His stock Idea is PNB Housing Finance.
Macro theme - India mortgage penetration is very low vs peers.
Gives history of company etc.
Asset Liability mix important in Home Finance industry.

Earlier PNBHF had large Corp book, now retail mix better.
ROA is improving. Credit rating has been upgraded so cost of funds would fall next few years .
PE vs peers is reasonable and decent so scope for rerating.
Post HDFC merger one of few pure play Home Finance cos to bet on.

Concludes presentation.

Next speaker is @suru27 , founder of @ScientificInve6
#TIA2020

His stock Idea is related to consumption. It is LT Foods.
It's a premium food theme (Basmati Rice)

Mid East partners took stake, enabling them to gain mkt share. Europe also growing.
Other business is health food biz.
Financials: Good cash flows despite perception of bring working capital intensive business. LT debt cleared is a big positive. ST debt alone remains. It's a +ve

Contribution from ready to food biz increasing leading to better cash conversion cycle

Comparing with KRBL - LT food margins lower but scope for improvement esp on power costs.
Discusses leadership team
Concludes saying with Balance sheet improvement PE can improve, currently at 10 PE.

Next Speaker is Hamsini Karthik, CA , Deputy Editor, for Hindu Business Line
#TIA2020

Her Stock Idea is IndusInd Bank.
Associated with Hinduja Group.
Started in 1994. Till 2008 seen as backyard of Ashok Leyland.

Thesis here is a turnaround case. It's largely a CV financier
Have a huge unsecured lending portfolio.
Conservative mgmt, good and well capitalized bank.

Explains the turnaround That's happened in last few years. Asset quality improving, 1.5% guiding of NPAs.
It's 5th largest deposit generating bank .

FY19 CVs were 13% of loan book.
FY24 CV is 10% of loan book.
Vehicle finance is 26%
Reasonable diversified in rest

Valuation is now reasonable, 1.8 P/B
Since earnings likely to improve so rerating possible.
Key risks : mgmt team stability , MFI exposure.
Concludes presentation.

Next Speaker is Vikas Kasturi, independent investors
His stock Idea is Repco Home Finance
#TIA2020

Begins with standard disclosures.
States that it's cheapest Home Finance company. Founded in 2000 .IPO in 2013. No equity dilution. Continous dividends. Good ROE and ROA.
Why is it undervalued?

NPA spiked from 1.4% to 7% at one point.
Hence PE under 10, P/B 1..

Catalyst for rerating- New CEO.
GNPA falling from 7% to 4.7% last 2 yrs. Target to under 2% next 2 yrs.
Complete Tech Refresh.
Risks : Keyman risk, execution risk and Regulatory risk
Concludes presentation.

Next speaker is Athreya Ramkumar, analyst from @ithoughtadviser
#TIA2020

Discusses investment philosophy- Favorable industry structure, market leadership etc

Stock Idea is : PVR Inox.
Result of Covid this amalgamation happened . 1708 screens.

19% industry share where 63% are single screens (unbranded ones)
Biggest competition to PVR in branded carnival cinema is in bankruptcy

Notes that big OTT platforms except Netflix are bleeding financially.
OTOH India box office footfalls have reached pre Covid19 footfalls.

Growth drivers - Screen count, convenience fess etc. More share in South India in future.
Details on Financial metrics etc.
Trading at discount to 2021 QIP price. 1.7 Billion $ Entreprise value
Concludes presentation.

Next presenter is Mohit Beriwala of Shree Rama Managers.
Begins presentation with a talk on Commercial RE.

Details about REITs and regulations around it.
Good way to invest in Commercial RE from your desk.
Highlights that REIT capital payout is tax free. So it's tax efficient way to invest in commercial real estate is REIT
It's a bet on demographics as well.

He now reveals his pick - Embassy REIT .
Manages 35 Mill sq ft. 10 mill sqft redevelopment. Also hotel space.

OpLev improvement via repricing, hotel development etc.
This is for passive cash flow not equity.
Concludes presentation .

Next speaker is @vijayvenkatram co founder Wealth Tantra Technology.
He begins speech on how to position in this raging bull mkt.

Speaks on contra scenarios that can happen.
Financialization of savings = Lower volatility = Risk of equity isn't factored = Mkts go up but returns go down.
Rising small cap relative performance = sign of extreme

Other risk - Higher Supply of fresh equities, EM outflows due to US elections
Possible increase in minimum public shareholding via 5-10 yrs.
Mentions other narratives which need not be true.
Concludes saying Raise cash, gold is good hedge.

Valedictory Speech by @shyamsek
Says that discussing and recommending stock ideas is hard.
Stock mkt have exceeded expectations last few years so there is going to be a period of underperforming /atrophy.
Advises a period of slowing down is inevitable and act accordingly.

Shyam concludes saying- Time is now not to run after ideas but wait ideas to hit you.
Thanks all presenters and @TIA_Investors for the event.
With this, the #TIA2020 8th episode comes to an end.
<End of Thread>