A Weekend at the El Segundo Defense Tech Hackathon - The UNIX Timestamp of the Deep Tech Renaissance
This weekend smashed all of my expectations.
Here's my honest impressions and takeaways, and where this fits in to the evolving startup scene.
The Gundo Thread: 🧵
Organizers @apollo_defense did a fantastic job bringing together a room full of talented students, defense industry engineers, and investors.
Teams built through the night and even had calls with members of the Ukrainian defense ministry who were keen to see and use the results
The winners of the hackathon delivered a functional prototype with thoughtful consideration of real world requirements, to use drones as relays for free space laser comms.
For many teams ML and AI were used but not as the main show - just part of the stack
Compared to hackathons in SF the crowd was markedly different - hardware engineers, defense tech founders, military intelligence and contractors replaced hte usual FAANG, B2B SaaS, and LLM-centric projects that have overflowed the past year of the AI gold rush
The supporting ecosystem of founders was tight knit and chasing big visions grounded in pragmatic engineering, like ending droughts and ensuring water security for farmers.
@ADoricko at Rainmaker hosted the event in between tracking cloud seeing runs with his X-band Radar Truck
The local hardware startups here are very real.
I've worked in DoE national labs, two fusion startups, university labs, in many roles. At Rangeview I saw a technically talented team developing state of the art manufacturing methods for paying customers.
These guys ship.
This comes just days after the @a16z and @anduril meetup at Stanford, put together after a Defense Tech Student Club had their charter denied while the Pickleball Club was approved.
Both events brimmed with unabashed patriotism, almost contrarian to the often PC tech scene
It's ironic that the contrarian deep tech founders of today, like @isaiah_p_taylor, are pro-nuclear, pro-natal, to build hydrocarbon energy abundance, are really a revival of the American Dynamism of the 1940s, 50s, and 60s that built so much of the country.
Tech needs this.
Along with YCs call for more deep tech applications, this is just the beginning of a broader transition of venture capital towards businesses with defensible moats in atoms-first industries, where AI and ML are in the stack but not the main show.
This all makes sense in the broader context of declining numbers of new software unicorns as SaaS markets mature, AI lowers barriers to entry, eating away margins and carving up markets
My essay from a week ago details the macro behind this transition
Although many hackers and founders in El Segundo are quite young, their politics, lifestyles, and work habits are more mature than many older "tech bros" in the Bay, where Peter Pan syndrome draws the 20s well into the 30s via fear of romantic commitment and raising families.
A massive difference is the tech-friendly and common-sense local government. Nowhere were streets blocked with anti capitalism protests, calls to halt AI, or labeling technology as 'evil'. The city was clean, safe, young, and relatively vibrant. Police even enforced the law.
There is a genuine hardware ecosystem forming here where adjacent-sector startups drive commercial network effects by sharing customers, suppliers, equipment, space, investors, and pooling resources to source top talent like this weekend Hackathon.
(I think its working)
For however powerful storytelling can be in creating a self fulfilling prophecy, the story being told in Gundo is a compelling one:
Build for your country, for your family.
Focus on things that are real.
Work hard, work out, live clean.
Call bullshit where you see it.
I'm walking away impressed, optimistic and relieved there are more hardware startups grounded in solid physics and engineering, and a new younger generation of founders building more than niche CRMs with better LLM calls.
Gundo has tell-tale signs of the beginnings of something truly great - that it strikes you as weird, different, but refreshing, simple, and honest.
This is the opposite of zirpy LARPS, do-nothing virtue-signaling, or hand-wringing doomerism.
This is "shut up and build" energy
But, it's just getting started.
You'll need more housing, larger spaces, shared infrastructure, and more investments to keep drawing talent, enabling new companies, and building the ecosystem.
Fortunately it's all on a bedrock of a legendary Gundo history of American Industry and generational talent - some of which works at, and consults for, these new startups.
This area is no stranger to a booming, thriving manufacturing and defense tech ecosystem, with SpaceX, Anduril, Varda and many more nearby in Hawthorne and Long Beach.
What El Segundo is, is the new hardware and manufacturing startup nursery, where new companies can find footing, build their first tech, get their first customers, find a supportive community aligned in physical industries and healthy living, and together build something world-changing.
I've never seen such an optimistic future framed in the shadow of an oil refinery, but it reminds us of something basic and true - the origins of prosperity is abundant energy, and the Gundo has that in spades.
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The miracle of life is to unpack a living organism from one cell, with a single molecule of instructions driving complex protein machinery.
For first time in history, we can produce fully three-dimensional videos of this process.
Let's take a look at Light Sheet Microscopy 🧵
The first person to observe single-celled organisms was Antony von Leeuwenhoek, a Dutch gentleman-scientist living in the 1600's.
His simple microscope revealed a hidden world of tiny creatures with a magnification of 300x
He named these new wonders "Animalcules"
The field of optics has come light-years since then, developing progressively better and higher resolution imaging techniques that have further elucidated the true nature of living systems.
Some key metrics are resolution, magnification, contrast, and field-of-view
It's a technology that mediates all our access to the digital world, yet hasn't fundamentally evolved in decades.
But screens of all kinds are about to undergo a massive revolution via a technology just barely escaping the lab.
Let's take a look at Light Field Displays, a 🧵
From the Cathode-Ray Tube of yesteryear to the latest flexible OLED display at CES, displays today show a scene the same way:
A 2D grid of diffuse light emitters, where our eyes focus on the plane of the screen to resolve a flat image
The innovation of the earliest "3D Glasses" was to project two different images to each eye simultaneously, creating an illusion of depth by the difference in image between left and right eye - called "parallax"
Modern 3D TV's do the same trick using a Parallax Barrier
Lowell Wood was an architect of the Strategic Defense Initiative, and worked with Edward Teller, father of the hydrogen bomb, to design a system of orbital lasers that could shoot down ICBMs.
Decades later he built a laser system to shoot down mosquitos - the 'Laser Fence'
Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation's quest to eliminate Malaria, Lowell worked with a few others and within a year had a working prototype that could shoot down mosquitos.
"We'd be delighted if we destabilize the human-mosquito balance of power," says Jordin Kare, an astrophysicist who once worked at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the birthplace of some of the deadliest weapons known to man.
My Highest Likelihood Explanation on Altman's Departure:
Erosion of senior leadership experience on the OpenAI Board of Directors created a situation where factionalism over the proposed use of a recent breakthrough led to a political takeover.
Over the last few years, board of directors at OpenAI lost a lot of its senior oversight due to conflicts of interest - Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, Will Hurd. The only person left with significant leadership experience is Adam D'Angelo.
After Will Hurd left, it was a split vote, 3v3:
The likely factions were Ilya, Sam, Greg vs Adam, Tasha, Helen.
Firing Sam was politics.
It was not over performance, strategic leadership, or vision for the company. Rather, there was contention over the use of a breakthrough that drove a vote between safetyism and deployment speed.
Why this was Factionalism - Sudden Ousting
If this was planned, Sam would not be representing OpenAI at APEC events all week, OpenAI DevDay two weeks ago. If Microsoft knew or was involved, Satya Nadella would not have been on-stage with Sam at Dev Day.
Microsoft claims they didn't have advance knowledge of this - they claim they knew about it one minute in advance. There clearly was not internal alignment on this decision either - @gdb just quit over this.
What was the wedge issue? Just recently at APEC Sam announced he had witnessed the frontier of knowledge being pushed back four times in his experience at OpenAI, and the last time was recently - a couple weeks ago.
Likely Greg and Sam wanted to build and deploy it in earnest, and Ilya didn't. Ilya had become lead of the "Superintelligence Alignment" division earlier this year. I would bet Ilya was the vote that broke the stalemate and led to the departure.
Sam was kicked out over concerns he would move AI forward too fast by deploying a recent breakthrough.
It's unlikely departure was related to anything regarding operations, cash burn, partnership-making ability, and so forth - OpenAI has blank-check status for ability to raise, they have huge cashflow, only a few hundred staff, are beyond doubt.
Most importantly, the suddenness of the departure, lack of communication to Microsoft, and resignation of Greg Brockman all point to this being a sudden move by a board faction.
Likely, the board felt that OpenAI was completely setup - in partnerships, funding, team, and direction, they could afford to push Sam out to regain control of of the direction and pace of roll-out of AI tools without threatening the security of OpenAI.
Whatever the proximate justification behind the lack of being 'candid' - this is likely ultimately a split between safetyism and acceleration.
Explanations that should be discarded
Sam is extremely successful and intelligent, but also has a bulletproof reputation as an upstanding, intentional and pro-social person. He's also a billionaire several times over.
The language used in the OpenAI disclosure, as well as comments by Eric Schmidt, seem to all point that this was a disagreement over intentions behind the use of AI tools, rather than an over-reach of power, monetary conflict of interest, or a personal scandal.
What would Sam build next?
A couple weeks ago, he spoke publicly about it. Superintelligence isn't here until it can make novel physical discoveries in science.
AI has revolutionized text and media. The next frontier is the world of atoms. Scientific Foundation Models will be the true AI revolution, for we as humans live in the world of atoms, not bits.
DM me if you are interested in building in this area.
This tweet supports the narrative I've laid out above.
Inside a Nuclear Fusion Reactor is a beautiful thing.
A faint wispy plasma evolves into a healthy vibrant glow. Millions of degrees Kelvin, 400 kilo-amps of circulating current.
I have no doubt we will solve the greatest challenges facing us. We always have in the past.
Around 5 seconds in you can see a bright glow to the right of the center plasma torus - this is likely to be one of COMPASS's two 400kW Neutral Beam Injectors.
Tokamaks 'fuel up' via neutral particle beams that inject DT fuel mixture and also provide heating for the plasma.
In 1986 scientists accidentally discovered that neutral beam heating can help drive the plasma inside a tokamak into a much more stable and higher-performance mode of operation, called "H-Mode".
All Tokamaks now utilize neutral beam heating as a standard.