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Dr. Lucky Tran Profile picture
@luckytran
Feb 20, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Latest Biobot data shows U.S. COVID wastewater levels are rising again, and higher than they have ever been compared to the same date in previous years.

In other words, COVID levels are still high and taking longer to go down after this winter's peak. Keep taking precautions. Chart of U.S. COVID wastewater levels from Biobot data
This chart compares U.S. COVID wastewater levels from each year. It shows that COVID wastewater levels are higher in February 2024 than they have ever been compared to February in previous years of the pandemic, when COVID levels fell more quickly after the winter peak. Chart comparing U.S. COVID wastewater levels from each year, using data from Biobot.
It's important to note that there's a discrepancy between the Biobot and CDC data. The CDC data shows that U.S. COVID wastewater levels are plateauing rather than rising again. Chart showing U.S. COVID wastewater levels using CDC data
Here's a rough comparison of the Biobot and CDC COVID wastewater data in one chart, using % change.

Both show that COVID wastewater levels have stopped falling quickly, and are still high. But Biobot shows an uptick in COVID levels, while CDC data shows a plateauing of levels. Chart comparing Biobot and CDC data by % change in wastewater levels
Also noteworthy is that if you zoom in and look at the CDC's regional COVID wastewater data, you can see that all regions show an uptick in COVID levels at some point in the last month. Chart showing COVID waste water levels by U.S. region, using CDC data.
Though there are slight differences in Biobot and CDC data (which hopefully will be ironed out), the takeaway is the same: US COVID levels are still HIGH, and it's taking LONGER to return to lower levels than during previous winters of the pandemic. Keep taking precautions.

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More from @luckytran

Dr. Lucky Tran Profile picture
Aug 29
COVID vaccine update: Pharmacies in some states won't give you a shot unless you have a prescription.

CVS: CO, FL, GA, KY, LA , ME, NY, NC, PA, UT, VA, WV, DC

Walgreens: AZ, CO, GA, IN, LA, MO, MT, NM, NY, OR, SC, UT, VA, WA, WV, WI

CVS is not yet offering shots in MA, NV, MN
The issue is that the CDC's immunization committee has not yet recommended the shots. Though the FDA label includes a broad list of conditions that will allow you to self-attest, pharmacies are worried that the CDC could restrict this further, so are waiting to see what happens.
Waiting on the CDC's immunization committee to finally recommend the updated COVID vaccines is a huge problem because the CDC is in CHAOS right now. They just fired the CDC leader, top scientists have resigned, and the immunization committee has been replaced by antivaxxers.
Read 7 tweets
Dr. Lucky Tran Profile picture
Aug 27
It's official: Updated COVID vaccines have been approved by the FDA, but with restrictions.

Moderna: 6 months+ if high risk

Pfizer: 5 years+ if high risk

Novavax: 12 years+ if high risk

Anyone 65 years+ is eligible for updated COVID vaccines regardless of risk status.
Common conditions that make you more likely to get very sick from COVID-19, per CDC:

Cancer
Chronic diseases
Diabetes
Heart conditions
Weakened immune system
Mental health conditions
Overweight and obesity
Physical inactivity
Pregnancy
Smoking
Substance use disorders
Transplant
Here's the CDC's full list of of underlying medical conditions that increase a person's risk of severe COVID-19: CDC 2025 List of Underlying Medical Conditions That Increase a Person's Risk of Severe Covid-19 Asthma Cancer Hematologic malignancies Cerebrovascular disease Chronic kidney disease* People receiving dialysis Chronic lung diseases limited to the following: Bronchiectasis COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) Interstitial lung disease Pulmonary embolism Pulmonary hypertension Chronic liver diseases limited to the following: Cirrhosis Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease Alcoholic liver disease Autoimmune hepatitis Cystic fibrosis Diabetes mellitus, type 1 Diabetes mellitus, type 2* Gestat...
Read 6 tweets
Dr. Lucky Tran Profile picture
Aug 19
From @dr_kkjetelina: “If you’re under 65 and not high risk, the window to get a Covid-19 vaccine is right now—before the FDA label changes (possibly this Friday). Once it happens, access will be limited immediately.”
Note: COVID hasn’t changed that much recently, so while they will be updating the vaccine in fall to match the latest variants, the current “old” vaccine should still provide good protection (and better than no vaccine if access is restricted).
It’s honestly ridiculous and horrific that we all need to make these complicated calculations to figure out when to get our next COVID vaccine.

COVID vaccines should be accessible to anyone who wants them every year (like flu vaccines) and all year round.
Read 7 tweets
Dr. Lucky Tran Profile picture
Jun 11
NEW: After firing expert scientists on the CDC's vaccine advisory committee, RFK Jr. has named their replacements.

The new committee contains many figures known for spreading disinformation about vaccines and COVID including Robert Malone and Martin Kulldorff.

This is bad. The list includes several well-known critics of vaccines. The eight new members, a significant decline from the 17 that previously served on the panel, include: Dr. Joseph R. Hibbeln, a psychiatrist and nutritional scientist who previously worked on nutritional neuroscience at the NIH; Dr. Martin Kulldorf, an epidemiologist formerly at Harvard Medical School, who has served on an FDA safety committee as well as the vaccine subgroup of ACIP; Retsef Levi, a professor of operations management at the MIT Sloan School of Management; Dr. Robert Malone, a physician who conducted early research ...
Robert Malone has suggested COVID-19 vaccines cause a form of AIDS, and runs a wellness institute where he profits from promoting unproven treatments for measles and COVID-19. Malone, who runs a wellness institute and a popular blog, rose to popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic as he relayed conspiracy theories around the outbreak and the vaccines that followed. He has appeared on podcasts and other conservative news outlets where he’s promoted unproven and alternative treatments for measles and COVID-19. He has claimed that millions of Americans were hypnotized into taking the COVID-19 shots. He’s even suggested that those vaccines cause a form of AIDS. He’s downplayed deaths related to one of the largest measles outbreaks in the U.S. in years.
Martin Kulldorff was a lead author of the Great Barrington declaration which promoted mass infection with COVID and opposed infectious disease prevention measures including masks and vaccines for children. Other appointees include Dr. Martin Kulldorff, a biostatistician and epidemiologist who was a co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration, an October 2020 letter maintaining that pandemic shutdowns were causing irreparable harm. Dr. Cody Meissner, a former ACIP member, also was named.
Read 4 tweets
Dr. Lucky Tran Profile picture
May 20
Under new leadership — who spread misinformation throughout the pandemic — the FDA announced it will limit Covid vaccines to adults over 65 & those with certain medical conditions.

Covid continues to spread & cause harm. This an anti-science move that will kill more Americans. F.D.A. Poised to Restrict Access to Covid Vaccines Agency leaders said there was evidence to justify approval only for older people and those with medical conditions. Many others may not be able to get the shots.
The data tells us that everyone can benefit from getting updated Covid vaccines.

Covid vaccines reduce the risk of becoming sick, developing Long Covid, and becoming hospitalized, for everyone. The data below describe how well vaccines work to reduce your risk. This risk reduction is in addition to protection you may have from previous infections with COVID-19 or from receiving earlier versions of COVID-19 vaccines. COVID-19 vaccines: Reduce your risk for critical illness (admission to intensive care unit or death) For adults ages 18 and older, the 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccines reduced the risk of critical illness from COVID-19 by almost 70% in the first 2 months after vaccination. Protection decreased over time. During the 10 months after vaccination, the vaccines reduced critica...
It's important to note that most people have a condition that increases the risk of becoming severely ill with Covid-19.

These include: asthma, diabetes, heart conditions, mental health conditions, obesity, physical inactivity, smoking, and pregnancy. Underlying Medical Conditions That Increase Risk of Severe Covid-19. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Read 10 tweets
Dr. Lucky Tran Profile picture
May 18
Good news: The FDA finally approved the Novavax Covid-19 vaccine.

Bad news: There are new restrictions that will create lots of problems for people who want to get the Novavax Covid-19 vaccine. FDA: Under this license, you are authorized to manufacture the product COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted, which is indicated for active immunization to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS- CoV-2) in adults 65 years and older. Additionally, COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted is indicated for individuals 12 through 64 years who have at least one underlying condition that puts them at high risk for severe outcomes from COVID-19.
The new stricter criteria limits Novavax to people:

1. aged 65 and over
2. aged 12 and up who have at least one underlying condition that puts them at higher risk of severe illness

This goes against the science that indicates that everyone can benefit from Covid-19 vaccination.
Note: CDC lists many conditions that may make someone likelier to become severely ill with Covid-19, including older age, asthma, diabetes, lung disease, obesity and pregnancy.

By definition, most people are higher risk and should have access to Novavax. cdc.gov/covid/hcp/clin…
Read 8 tweets

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