Thread by @JasminMuj

Over the past few mos I've repeatedly commented on Bosnia & Herzegovina's ability to provide critically needed 155mm shells, & other munitions, for Ukraine. There is a great opportunity here for the West to shift the tide of battle vs. Russia. Let me explain the details. 🧵

BiH's remarkably robust defense industry dates to the Yugoslav period. On the eve of the SFRJ's dissolution (1990/91), BiH was by some estimates producing cc 51% of all arms & munitions in Yugoslavia, which then had the 4th largest armed forces in Europe (the JNA).

While most the relevant plants were heavily damaged during the aggression vs BiH by Serbia & Croatia (1992-95), the sector was also relatively quick to bounce back. Without getting into the weeds, suffice it to say by the mid-2010s, BiH's defense industry was on its legs again.

As of 2022, for instance, BiH is exporting arms & munitions to some 113 countries, to the tune of tens of millions of $ per year. Purchasers of BiH's arms & munitions incl the US, large segments of NATO, but also large numbers of Asian & African states. klix.ba/biznis/privred…

BiH's engineers have also begun designing & producing their own drones, which I suspect will be produced in still greater numbers for both domestic & international purposes in the next few yrs. In short, the manufacturing know-how is there. klix.ba/biznis/na-sajm…

For Ukraine's purposes, most significant BiH defense firms likely BNT, Pretis, Unis Ginex, BINAS, Igman. First 4 produce artillery shells & components & can or already do produce the critically needed 155mm shells. Igman primarily produces small arms munitions & grenades.

Now, we know some Bosnian munitions/arms are already in UA. It's been reported in the local media, the NYT, pics & footage occasionally pop up on social media etc. The problem is BiH cannot directly sell to UA, so all of this is arriving thru back-channels in unknown quantities.

BiH can't sell directly to UA bc in 2015, Bosnian Serb secessionists - at Russia & Serbia's insistence - managed to secure a ban. They pulled that off bc of BiH's convoluted, Dayton Peace Agreement-ensconced constitution. So 1:1 sales are no-go (for now). reuters.com/article/uk-ukr…

But there are ways around this, as evidenced by the presence of BiH munitions & arms in UA already. What's needed is for NATO countries to strike contracts w/ the relevant defense firms in BiH on behalf of UA (as the Czechs appear to have recognized) & increase output.

While Serb & Croat anti-state elements in BiH may attempt to obstruct this, they cannot tear up existing export agreements unliterally & all of the above companies are located in the FBiH entity so there are myriad avenues to avoid Serb secessionist meddling in export process.

So for modest FDI into BiH's defense industry (cc $100-500 million) - which would incl modernization of equipment & streamlining of supply chains - BiH could quickly be producing hundreds if not thousands of 155mm shells for UA per day, shipped via existing legal channels.

And of course keep in mind that labor costs in BiH are a fraction of what they are in the rest of Europe. Yes, France can produce these shells too. But they're not. And even if/when they do, it'll cost 10x what it would to do so in BiH, even w/ (temporarily) worse logistics.

These BiH-made shells would then be bought by NATO govts thru existing export deals & dispatched to UA, thus circumventing the realistically minor issue of the 2015 export ban. It's already happening, as we can see. It's just a practice that needs to be brought up to scale.

This would massively benefit UA, first & foremost, it would aid NATO's strategic interests in countering Russia's aggression, but it would also help elevate domestic manufacturing while also shoring up the domestic defense capacities of BiH itself. The rare triple W.

The security of the entire Euro-Atlantic community is at stake in Ukraine. Far too much time & blood has already been wasted on navel-gazing & whataboutism. We all need UA to win. The means are there, in this case in BiH, to deliver victory. We just need the will to act. /xxx