Thread by @TuukkaFalt

Red Sea - SITREP

Thread on general situation in the Red Sea, threat assessment, latest developments and implications. 1/

DISCLAIMER: Simplifying the issue yet alone the region in it's complexity can be problematic. Naturally this format of raporting won't cover everything related. However some key indicators and trends may help understand the situation and form SA on the matter. 2/

Conflict begun on 19NOV23 with the Galaxy Leader hijacking. In three months time the conflict has escalated and drawn global concern. Houthi have striken commercial shipping and alerted naval response from multiple nations. 3/

According to @EUNAVFOR and @UK_MTO data, there have been 64 'Maritime Security Events', since 19NOV. Most of these are Houthi UAV or missile strikes. 4/

Other than UAVs and missiles of various types, Houthi capabilities include UUVs, USV (according to @CENTCOM), skiff attacks and helicopter boarding ops. These are less seen tactics, with the USV -weaponry being the latest introduction to the game. 5/

Houthi weapons are largely supplied by Iran. Domestic weapons production apparently exists - to a degree - but high tech components such as missile guidance systems are shipped in. Between 2015-2023 US seized 18 of these shipments. 6/
businessinsider.com/us-coast-guard…

Arsenal in itself is vast and somewhat sophisticated. Capabilities are in paper impressive - ranges of up to 1000+ km (1600 miles). Despite this, the damages have seemed quite limited: One raported injury, one partly sunken ship at time of posting. 7/

These weapons are not standalone fire-and-forget munitions (altought they can be,) but require broad systems around them: Starting from intel gathering and targeting process to damage assessment and follow-up, logistics, development and more. 8/

It is more than probable that Iran is providing these capabilities to the Houthi in various forms: Training, equipment and support. Coastal radars and the infamous Behshad being most concrete examples. 9/

https://fxtwitter.com/MenchOsint/status/1760073647044337674?s=20

@IISS_org article by @fab_hinz suggests that the Houthi as well as Tehran is still learning the ropes in development as well as usage of these systems. Hits on the Rubymar this week suggest the learning curve is on the rise 10/
iiss.org/online-analysi…

Initial rise of the conflict sparked a drastic reaction from the shipping industry wth huge implications on the global economy. If the capabilities continue to develop and situation further escaletes, it may see transiting traffic drain even further. Map by @MarineTraffic 11/

In addition to kinetic strikes and the so far one-time helicopter bourne hijacking, there have been few incidents assosiated with piracy. It is unclear weather this is coordinated or opportunistic activity. 12/
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/h…

To keep it short, I won't go into detail on the extent of response against the Houhti, but present a few takes on the matter. Naval presence in the area has significantly increased. Coalition task forces and single nations have hardened their posture. 13/

Strongest actors against the Houthi are US and UK. Their retaliatory strike campaing begun on 12JAN24 with latest strikes just yesterday from time of posting. On more protective posture countries like France, India and China operate in the area. 14/

Commercial satellite image @planet analysis on the strikes into Yemen by @reuters shows some damage, but so far the coalition strikes have managed to do little but escalate, as Houthis declare revenge and amp up their strikes this week. 15/

As a result of escalation war insurances have skyrocketed, shipping routes redrawn. Use of PMCs and naval escorts for the ships still passing the area have seen another becoming. Shipping companies, maritime security authorities and others assess the situation constantly 16/

Despite immense implications at hand, regional escalation seems so far unlikely, yet not entirely ruled out either. More likely scenario is prolonged, asymmetric low intensity proxy war. 17/

https://fxtwitter.com/ed_fin/status/1748419568953921918?s=20

Domestic- and regional politics as well as war in Gaza are all essential here. Multiple parties have interests in the area and the crisis. Supply chains and further rerouting of traffic are also key indicators. 18/
janes.com/defence-news/n…

In addition to these, there's plethora of other effects the situation is having, fe. impact on humaitarian crisis in Sudan. This and Houthi/Iranian targeting process are subjects for following threads in near future. 19/19

Source: DIA report "2024 Iran Enabling Houthi Attacks Across the Middle East" dia.mil/Portals/110/Do…