Zach Profile picture
Feb 26 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Patriot and Aegis (the two major automated AD systems in the US that have seen combat) had three friendly/auto-related incidents, which were so different.

Patriot: Operators had little training and trusted the system too much
Aegis: Operators didn't trust the system at all
The Aegis Combat System's doctrine stuff is like leagues ahead of what Patriot had in its autonomous mode. As the paper describes, it was "all-or-none." On the other hand, Aegis (due to distrust for the machine) had so many layers aka “decision leverage points” built in.
The system was extremely tunable from the start. Nonetheless, the human operators still made a grave mistake. In his book "Network Centric Warfare," Friedman states that the Navy later concluded that had the system been in auto, the Vincennes shootdown wouldn't have happened.
He says that is because for the system, Flight 655 wouldn't have met the internal threat/engagement criteria. But there's much to be said about these two distinct cultures that developed in the Navy and Army when it came to the machine.
The Navy's story starts with NTDS, it's worth reading about here: ethw.org/First-Hand:No_…
Anyways, if you look back on the history of combat systems, In attempts to overcome human reaction limitations, these systems were given autonomy, and in many cases, distrust in them by the operators has directly led to the deaths of many.
And in other cases, too much trust in these systems and a lack of “decision leverage points” has led to the deaths of some.

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More from @ThrustWR

Jan 26
Is bro serious? bro, can't be serious. Well, I guess we have to do this again:

Arleigh-Burke Flight I cost
1990: $700M ($1.6B today)
1991: $788M ($1.7B today)
1992: $867M ($1.8B today)
Flight IIA cost
2005: $1,362M ($2.1B today)
Flight III cost
2023: $2.2-2.3B
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Not to mention, the Burkes being built now are very different from the Burkes in 91.

1993
2023
2005 Additions
FLT I didn't come with helicopters, SSEE, AEGIS Baseline 10, AN/SPY-6, latest SLQ-32(V)7, CEC, or latest SQQ 89 version. The FLT I, even for its time, came with a downgraded SPY-1 radar, lacked EW system, ESM system, and JTIDS, among other things, as a cost saving measure. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 13
They haven't demonstrated "impressive" warship construction. The article is a clickbait piece that somehow ranks a Maya or the Sejong the Great (Burke-bases designs) as somehow being "better" than the latest Flight IIIs, despite in reality both being closer to Flight II/IIAs.
These vessels run with older Aegis baselines and have nothing on a Baseline 9 IAMD equipped Flight I. The same goes for the Type 055.
This isn't even getting to why this is a silly example. When people bring up SK/JP, they mean outsourcing production to these nations so they can do beyond what the US yards can. On paper, this seems reasonable. They have so much commercial capacity, so why not?
Read 14 tweets
Dec 21, 2023
US Air Force's Expedient Small Asset Protection (ESAP) shelter that went up on Andersen AFB earlier this year. The structure measures 30 meters (length) by 20 meters (width), which makes it big enough for every fighter in service.


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In FY18, USAF paid $12.396M to procure:
8 ESAP Type I Fighter Aircraft Shelters for $7.2M
6 ESAP Type II Equipment shelters for $2.490M

They also paid $2.706M for shelter support. The USAF is looking to buy 70 shelters a year between FY2024-28.
As a rough comparison, the US-ROK completed a HAS project in Kunsan AB. The project involved the construction of 20 Gen III Hardened Aircraft Shelters at a price of $6.25 million per shelter. Image
Read 7 tweets
Dec 7, 2023
The recent NDAA grants the US Air Force the authority to enter into contracts to procure six over-the-horizon radars to meet Northern Command requirements for detecting threats facing the homeland. Image
The authority allows the AF to procure the first two radars in a sole source contract if it deems that option being more applicable. But the third and follow-on radars have to be procured under competitive procedures. Image
The FY24 budget request included funds for four Homeland Defense OTHR sites. These new OTH radars will extend the detection coverage of the existing Northern Warning System. Canada is also investing in OTHRs that will cover the Polar region.
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Read 6 tweets
Nov 26, 2023
If you guys don't believe me, here are the words straight from Norman Friedman's mouth. Being able to only defend 45-60° arc would suck because the Soviets were considering throwing multiple MRA regiments at CBGs. This means multi-axis attacks along a very wide arc.



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Yeah, the Navy had to convince the AF to pitch in and reduce the load lol. They were so desperate for missile shooters we thought about modifying the A-6 to throw AAM. The introduction of AMRAAM and Hornet was a major step up.
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The CVW in the 1980s had 12-24 aircraft that could carry 6x AAMs, today the CVW has 48 aircraft that can carry 10-12x AAMs at greater range and with higher endurance than the F-14 could carry those 4-6x missiles. Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 19, 2023
Your daily reminder that Russia is yet to fully and repeatably demonstrate this. On the other hand, as part of the Forward Pass and NIFC-CA, the US has been working on this problem for close to 50 years (and largely solved it in two distinct ways 30 years ago).
To approach the topic of AWACS-controlled missiles or fighters to AWACS hand-over of missiles, one has to understand how missiles are controlled.
In simple terms, most current SAMs are fed mid-course info via data links. These data links are in X/C-band and are generated by the main fire control radars of SAMs to talk to a receiver on the missile.
Read 17 tweets

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