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Daniel Park Profile picture
@Daniel_E_Park
Feb 26, 2024 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Just released: Pretty remarkable 1-year durability data for Novavax 2-dose primary series. Though there is some expected waning, there was >65% efficacy at 1y (mRNA options typically wane to this level by ~4-5 months). Also fewer waning differences by age.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Image
Refs:
NVX:
BNT:
Waning:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
thelancet.com/journals/lanre…
To illustrate age stratified data, I took NVX data from the Japan paper and compared w/ a BNT paper from Norway. For BNT, nAbs & IgG largely back to baseline levels in older individuals by 5m, but remain at protective level at 1y w/ NVX, and more similar to young ages throughout. Image
Long-term durability is challenging to assess due to hybrid immunity, mutations, etc. More long-term durability studies are needed. But this adds to evidence from other observational data and animal models re: NVX durability

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
nature.com/articles/s4146…

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More from @Daniel_E_Park

Daniel Park Profile picture
Nov 2
Excellent study on correlates of protection for nuvaxovid / novavax. Higher IgG and nAb levels are excellent predictors for risk of any and severe infection. Helpful data on durability as well. 🧵 Image
Paper: academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…

This study group received the original wuhan vaccine and assessed IgG and nAb levels vs Delta. This phase 2 follows the initial CoP analysis, which had no severe cases. That is great, but precluded analysis for severe COVID: nature.com/articles/s4146…
A key finding was that there were no severe cases above the 33rd percentile of IgG levels at day 35 - i.e. based on initial immune responses, no one with an average immune response had severe illness. Image
Read 8 tweets
Daniel Park Profile picture
Oct 31
Excellent systematic review of COVID, flu, and RSV vaccines. Hundreds of studies, and millions of individuals represented, all demonstrating that these important vaccines help reduce the risk of severe illness and hospitalization. Image
Link to study:

Remember that the COVID vaccine effectiveness of ~50% is comparing up to date vaccination vs a background of infection acquired and prior vaccine immunity.nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Protection against long COVID in children and adults was also high (~60%) and lines up nicely with prior large studies
thelancet.com/journals/lanre…
Read 6 tweets
Daniel Park Profile picture
Sep 23
Lost in the recent ACIP meeting: A lack of distinction between non-mRNA Novavax & mRNA. They voted on restrictions largely based on mRNA-specific concerns (many false assertions) when these issues flat-out don't apply to Novavax. A brief overview
The ACIP voted to add language about six additional risks with COVID vaccines. Let's see how those apply to Novavax Image
1. Poor effectiveness & duration?
Effectiveness of COVID vaccines remains strong (around 50%). Importantly, these are population level estimates comparing against a background of infection-acquired immunity (see CDC slide). Image
Image
Read 11 tweets
Daniel Park Profile picture
Aug 24
As anticipated, COVID levels are rising nationally with a late summer wave.
Wastewater detection rising quickly.
Early increases in hospitalization rates (those lag infections and viral detection).
I would expect rates to continue accelerating as kids go back to school. Image
Rates are variable by region. For example Texas is matching the highest levels in the last two years. Some areas remain at low levels. Check your state
cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID1…Image
Emergency department rates (early clinical indicator) remain relatively low, but there are substantial increases nationally Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Daniel Park Profile picture
Aug 19
Great overview of one aspect of how COVID damages our bodies.

Summary:
1) blood vessel inflammation,
2) atherosclerosis (clogged arteries),
3) vascular aging (less flexible and functional blood vessels).

Couple additional thoughts 🧵
The cardiovascular impacts of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been well described since the beginning of the pandemic.
Risk of outcomes like heart attack are higher for months or years after infection.
nih.gov/news-events/ne…
nature.com/articles/s4159…
Vaccination halves the risk of cardiovascular outcomes when infected. Vaccines are even more protective if you include prevention of infection (roughly halves the risk of infection vs reference population of mostly infection acquired immunity)
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
Read 6 tweets
Daniel Park Profile picture
Aug 7
Excellent durability up to one year following Novavax booster doses shown in a new study from Japan.

Correlates of protection estimate 66% throughout the first year following first booster, and 88% throughout second year after 2nd booster. Image
Link to study:

Slight limitation that antibody patterns suggest some people likely had asymptomatic infections that were not captured. However, I'll note that the asymptomatic infection scenario (avoiding moderate/severe disease) is also a good outcome.sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Lastly, correlates of protection have a degree of uncertainty. However, the data for NVX are quite good on this front
nature.com/articles/s4146…
Read 4 tweets

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