Henry Madison Profile picture
Feb 27, 2024 21 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Exploring risk. The RHS of this diagram is now mostly not operating. But neither is much of the LHS, for most. Personal responsibilities crystallise out of shared framings and priorities. There are no easy answers for how to manage a pandemic, from here. /1 Swiss Cheese model for managing a pandemic. Repeated in thread.
As individuals we can try to add as many slices of personal responsibility cheese as we can afford and maintain. But for how long? A decade? More? The rest of our lives? Recognising also that this creates a profound change in our social arrangements as well. /2 Image
Most of our friends and even families are not doing this. So we’re making a decision about whether to alter our relationships, perhaps even permanently. My sense is this diagram made sense at a time when all of the slices of cheese were more or less in place. /3 Image
I’m less convinced it can operate with only half the slices of cheese, or even less. As above, personal and shared responsibilities are not distinct. The personal and the shared are mutually defined. Some of us do our best to devise our own Covid strategies. /4 Image
But again, this is akin to a type of survivalism now. You have to confront the idea of creating an almost mini-society of your own, to pull it off. Public health interventions are social interventions, not medical interventions. How many years will people commit to that? /5 Image
This is also absolutely not to argue for ‘living with the virus’, in that surrendering way. It’s not to suggest there’s any simple answer at all. It’s to suggest that much more is in play here than simple slices of cheese i.e. individual interventions. /6 Image
What I see is social media doing what it always does. Taking the slices and turning them into symbolic team sports battles. Is that person wearing or not wearing a mask? Are you for or against clean air? For or against lockdowns? Etc. /7 Image
The more the whole edifice collapses, the more strident the symbolic battles become. Nothing is working, so the resultant anger is invested in increasingly furious touchstones for appropriate Covid action, that are just individual slices of cheese broken off from the rest. /8 Image
We’re re-discovering what life was like for most of human history, when there was no public sphere to handle collective problems, often invisibly to us. It’s not the same as saying there is no collective life now, though. All life is always collective. /9 Image
The personal and the shared are mutually defined, not two things. I have solar panels and a battery, for example, for my personal use but which also has collective impact on the country’s power grid. It’s not two things. Our individual acts always derive from shared origins. /10 Image
Including the language we speak. What varies throughout history is the degree of coordination of all of our individual/collective acts. If as an individual you avoid Covid infection, you’re possibly saving thousands of lives. You’re interrupting transmission chains. /11 Image
But how long can you keep doing it, alone? Again because it also means re-writing your entire social life. These are the questions that are coming for us all. There are no easy answers. For me, we need to stop the process of team-sporting the individual slices of cheese. /12 Image
Progress won’t be our degree of fanatical commitment to this or that Covid measure, and the strength of our angry denunciation of those who aren’t meeting a symbolic level of commitment to the same. We’re going to need an appetite for a lot more ‘shit happens’ in our lives. /13 Image
Because for most of the world’s population, this has ALWAYS been life. Lots of shit happens, that shouldn’t. Our beautiful public sphere that cleared away a lot of that shit is terminal. Only catastrophe put it there, and only catastrophe will likely put it back. /14 Image
In the meantime, those who want to keep fighting may need to be more nuanced in how the devise their risk management strategies. Each person’s situation may be quite different, on a whole range of measures. Their health history, work set-up, social relationships, etc. /15 Image
Whether they mask all the time, or find ways to create pockets of relative safety that also protect wider social relationships. Whether they devise ventilation strategies with cheap equipment that can be introduced almost invisibly to home and work. /16 Image
There is no must-do list of things. Public health was invented to remove the need for this sort of individual calculation of risk, but it’s not realistically going to be re-adopted any time soon, on current trends. We can try, but also plan for when that may not work. /17 Image
Above all else, I say we need to stop thinking social media methodology for addressing problems, i.e. constructing teams who then fight ruthlessly over how many angels fit on the end of a pin, will fix anything. Righteousness only makes platform owners rich. /18
This is life in a post-public world. Which is life as it has been for most of human history. The public was a short, gloriously successful project for about 150 years. I for one will keep fighting to save it. But I’ll also think strategically about that failing. /19
About how to shape my life and that of my family for maximum safety without surrendering at the same time to survivalism. I don’t want to live in a bunker, though I will use more elements of bunker life than I would have 20 years ago. /20
It’s how most humans have had to negotiate life not just in history, but also right now, in most of the world. We lose sight of it from inside rich Western democracies. For many even inside these democracies, that’s been life, always. /end

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More from @RageSheen

Jun 8
The genius of Australia is invisible to all of the political categories developed mostly in Europe and applied globally. All of the -isms: capitalism, socialism, liberalism, communism etc.

Australia is none of those things. And that’s why it works. So what is it?

/1 Image
Probably more by accident than by design, but also intriguingly possibly via osmosis with its Indigenous population, Australian life is centred around none of the social groupings that make up traditional ‘politics’, like class.

Australian life is created around community.

/2 Image
Australia is communitarian. That sounds a lovely warm hugs thing to be, but it deserves a more rigorous understanding.

The atomic unit of Australian society is the community. The interactions of a wide diversity of people, in their communities.

/3
Read 20 tweets
Jun 8
It’s amazing that ‘debt and deficit’ politics, weaponised junk economics, has completely captured the public policy space.

Many even believe it, that governments need to find money to buy things. Central banks have been ignoring that mythology for nearly 20 years.

1/4 Image
If a government needs money, it can ‘print’ it. It’s a mechanism of exchange, it has no intrinsic value.

This only comes unstuck if the country doesn’t have the resources and expertise to convert the money into goods and services.

2/4
Rich nations aren’t generally short of the capacity to use the money, they’re just short of money because high status people hoard it.

So ‘print’ more, and give it to lower status people. Like we did in Covid ‘lockdowns’. Was a boon for them and for the ‘economy’.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
May 4
Because everything is a crusade today, trying to assess the chronic long-term impacts of SC2 by looking at the progression of HIV was heavily frowned upon, because diseases are now social movements.

But the question remains. Chronic infection follows patterns.

/1 https://www.wikidoc.org/index.php/HIV_AIDS_natural_history,_complications,_and_prognosis
Of course what SC2 does to the immune system may be entirely different to what HIV does to it. That’s NOT the question.

The question is - what is SC2 doing in *its* ‘clinical latency’ period, right now? Do we know? Some are trying to figure it out.

/2 Image
The comparison is about the clinical latency period. And SC2 is already not very latent. ‘Long Covid’ tells us that. It’s not waiting years to fuck with us.

If we’d used the same acute impact filters for HIV that we use for SC2?

/3 Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 29
I can promise you the entire world will appear fundamentally differently, with this one reframing.

The battles and debates of our adult lives are not the adult world. They’re us trapped in a permanent childhood. How this happened is actually very simple.

/1 Image
In the 19th century and before, there was no real space or culture for children. They were just little adults, sharing life and work in the adult world.

Here they are, you can see it directly with your own eyes. Human life was just adult life.

/2 Image
And then the thing happened, which turned our culture upside down and inside out. We invented compulsory, universal schooling.

And that created a ‘child’, for the first time. Suddenly our world had adults *and* children.

/2 Image
Read 17 tweets
Apr 24
Our societies as a whole are suffering from dysautonomia. This isn’t just an analogy. Like bodies, societies are far too complex to be consciously controlled in most of what they need to do, to operate.

They operate via an autonomic set of social processes.

/1 Image
Our social autonomic nervous system is our institutions. They are what evolves over time - nobody consciously creates them - to regulate how our society operates.

This was always Burke’s point. Our customs, traditions - our institutions - are what run societies.

/2
No individual creates customs and traditions, institutions. They evolve over time in response to threats.

The staggering complexity of a society, like a body, is way beyond any individual or group to control and run.

/3
Read 11 tweets
Apr 19
“Man is not only ruled by evil passions; but his rational capacity is severely limited as well. Without the warm cloak of custom, tradition, experience, history, religion, and social hierarchy—all of which radical man would rip off—man is shivering and naked.”

Edmund Burke

1/6
Human life is like a human body. The vast majority of it acts autonomically. Nearly everything a society does when it succeeds is an inherited custom or tradition.

A habit. An institution. Emergent from the blood and death of history, as what allowed us to survive.

2/6
This is something populist (electoral) politics simply can’t understand. Nor the populist electors, who think human rationality solves society’s problems.

Institutions (customs, traditions, habits) are what holds societies together. Again they’re society’s nervous system.

3/6
Read 6 tweets

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