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Erin Reed Profile picture
@ErinInTheMorn
Mar 2 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
This is wrong - let's look at why:

For a long time we've known that gender affirming care (GAC) lowers suicidality.

Imagine you have a dataset of trans people getting GAC and those not, and you have more suicides in those not.

A statistical model will show GAC lowers suicide.
Image
Now, let's say you are a researcher opposed to trans care and you want to find something that erases that.

You find a variable... "Psych specialist visits"!

Turns out, suicidal people often have contact with the psych system...

You can erase the direct connection now! Image
Except...

Not getting gender affirming care might lead to more psychiatric issues, which then lead to suicide. It is erroneous to claim that gender affirming care "doesn't save lives."

Yet that is what some reporting on a recent Finnish study did!

It gets worse though...
Suicidal people IMPLICITLY have more psych visits!

Self harm and suicide attempts lead to suicide crisis care visits, both of which are connected to suicide.

So you are measuring a tautology! The variable you are measuring, suicide, is also heavily contained in "psych visits" Image
However, uh oh... your study shows that EVEN with this attempt to sever the connection to suicide, your model STILL shows that those not getting gender affirming care have 3x higher suicide rates at pretty decent significance.

What do you do now?


Image
Well... You didn't pre-register your modeling decisions. You aren't beholden to anything.

You just declare it not significant and set lower significance thresholds. It's that easy.

All of a sudden, now, you can publish a study saying, "well... the TRUE issue is psychological care" and give cover for some journalists to say, "Gender affirming care DOESN'T save lives!" despite being a completely inaccurate conclusion.

This is an extremely simplified critique of the study. You can read a much fuller critique that covers the other nuances of it and many other errors in my interview with Merdedithe McNamara from Yale:

You can read my actual story on the study here:

erininthemorning.com/p/fact-checked…
@GidMK, Epidemiologist, has a good story on the errors in interpretations here too:

gidmk.substack.com/p/does-gender-…
You can also see Alexander's explanation of the problem and simulation looking at collider variables, for those who aren't intimidated by slightly more advanced explanations:

When you try, as this model did, to "control" for psychiatric visits, you are over-controlling and measuring a tautology - you're measuring something that is implicitly connected to suicide, DEEPLY so, REGARDLESS of whether you get care.

And you lose all signal from "care."

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More from @ErinInTheMorn

Erin Reed Profile picture
Mar 2
1. The Department of Education Office For Civil Rights has declared a formal investigation into Owasso Public Schools over transgender teen of Choctaw heritage Nex Benedict.

This comes after a complaint submitted by the Human Rights Campaign.

More complaints are pending. Image
2. The complaint alleges a pattern of widespread harassment and abuse of LGBTQ+ people, including Nex Benedict, in Oklahoma and in Owasso Public Schools. It calls for a title IX investigation, which appears to have commenced.

Read my article here:

erininthemorning.com/p/office-for-c…
3. The letter from the Office For Civil Rights states that it will be investigating alleged Title IX violations as well as Sec 504 and Title II violations over the failure to respond to harassment in the school. Image
Read 7 tweets
Erin Reed Profile picture
Feb 29
1. In a just released legal filing, Attorney General Ken Paxton of Texas is demanding full names, addresses of trans members in Texas from PFLAG national, as well as "contingency plans" around new anti-trans laws.

The org alleges retalliation.

Subscribe to support my work. Image
2. The civil investigative demand, issued Feb 5th, calls for extensive identifying information and records.

PFLAG states that it is retaliation, and that it violates free speech, association, unreasonable search and seizure.

Read my article here:
erininthemorning.com/p/retaliation-…
3. The demands include:
- Complete names
- Social Security Numbers
- Dates of Birth
- Street and mailing addresses
- Home, cell, and business phone numbers
- Email addresses

that center on a statement from CEO Brian Bond, which includes that PFLAG has "1,500 Texas members" Image
Read 12 tweets
Erin Reed Profile picture
Feb 28
1. The world's largest psychological organization has released a groundbreaking policy resolution supporting trans youth care.

The policy passed 153-9 by elected psych leaders representing 157,000 members.

It rebuts many anti-trans talking points.

Subscribe to support my work! Image
2. The American Psychological Organization, representing 157,000 members, represents psychologists in America and internationally.

They make it clear. It is a "necessity" for transgender youth to have access to care.

Read my article here:

erininthemorning.com/p/worlds-large…
3. This policy document is stunning and declares:
- Gender affirming care is medically necessary
- Opposing bans on care for trans youth and adults
- Dysphoria is not "caused" by autism or PTSD
- False info needs to be combatted
- Rejection risks negative mental health, suicide Image
Read 9 tweets
Erin Reed Profile picture
Feb 22
1. Police officers in Oklahoma are now backtracking after claiming trans student Nex Benedict's death "was not caused by trauma," and have filed search warrants suspecting "foul play."

Meanwhile, LGBTQ+ leaders are calling for the DOJ to step in.

Subscribe to support my work. Image
2. Recent statements by the Owasso police department have raised serious questions about their ability to investigate Nex's death. Allegations of cover-ups, a long history of anti-LGBTQ+ sentiment in the school system have emerged.

Read my article here:

erininthemorning.com/p/lgbtq-leader…
3. Nex Benedict was a transgender gender fluid teenager in Oklahoma. They were reportedly jumped in a bathroom and beaten, leaving them with a head injury. Reportedly, the school didn't call an ambulance and instead, their mother took them to the hospital. They died the next day.
Read 12 tweets
Erin Reed Profile picture
Feb 22
1. The House Freedom Caucus just released a letter threatening to shut down the government over policy riders that include anti-trans national bans.

Of the riders, Gender affirming care and sports bans are a high priority.

Subscribe to support my work. Image
2. The latest threat is the clearest message that policy riders targeting trans people are one of the sticking points in the fight to keep the government open.

Axios reports that a shutdown is now likely.

Read my full article here:

erininthemorning.com/p/republicans-…
3. The letter itself lists out several policies that include "defunding gender transition surgeries or gender affirming care," DEI bans, Planned Parenthood funding bans, and sports bans.

These policies could disrupt trans care nationwide. Image
Read 9 tweets
Erin Reed Profile picture
Feb 21
1. Last month, I reported that Chaya Raichik of Libs of TikTok was appointed by Ryan Walters to "make schools safer" in Oklahoma.

One month later, a trans teen is dead after a year of transphobic bullying.

Their name was Nex. Image
2. Nex was a genderfluid trans teenager who suffered horrific bullying over their trans identity and now is dead after being beaten in a restroom.

Libs of TikTok and Ryan Walters said they'd make students safe.

Which students?

Read my article here:

erininthemorning.com/p/chaya-raichi…
3. Just one month ago, I wrote on how State Superintendent Ryan Walters, who himself has been viciously anti-trans appointed Libs of TikTok as part of a plan to "make schools safer."

Read that letter here:

Read 12 tweets

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