Thread by @SLAVAUA2022NAFO

1/24 In this SALO we will look at Russia’s Crimea strategy. We will talk about the Tuzla incident, history and Russia’s psyops operations in gaining influence in the region. Thanks to reddituser politicalcanvas in helping me on this one.

2/24 Historicly The Crimea has changed hands many times. From the Scythians, the Byzantine empire, The Golden Horde Mongols, The Ottoman empire the Russian empire, Ukraine and now Russia.

3/24 Russia conquered the Crimea in 1783. It was the home of the Crimean Tartars, they have Turkish roots. Russia soon would colonize the area and get rid of many Tartars by purges, deportation, forced relocation, etc... this continued until 1900.

4/24 In 1853 Tsar Nicolas eyed an even bigger prize: the whole of the Ottoman sultanat. It started a war under the pretence of coming to aid to oppressed orthodox minorities within the mainly islamic empire.

5/24 Russia lost half a million soldiers, 6 times more than the opposing armies. In the Crimea (were lots of the battle took place) the Tartars thought they were liberated. The allies left and the Tartars were proscecuted as traitors.

6/24 During WW2 the Germans came to the pinninsula. While the Tartars hadn’t actively collaborated much Stalin saw an excuse to rid the isle once and for all of Tartar influence. The Crimean Genocide took place in 1944.

7/24 In 1954 Stalin successor Krustyev decided to add the Ukrainian Soviet State. Officially the occasion celibrated the 300th Birthday of the Peryslav Treaty (Ukrainian cossacks empire part of Russia)
A more practical reason was probably the potable water supply from Ukraine.

8/24 The Iron Curtain fell, Ukraine became independant. Deported Tartars returned from Siberia. The Crimeans got to vote and chose to remain. The Crimean region got a semi autonomic satus with it’s own parliament.

9/24 In 1994 Yuri Meshkov, head of the Crimean parliament,  decided to disband Ukrainian law. It left Ukraine in quite a pickle. If it would break up the movement with force Russia could come to its aid, like it had done in Transnistria.

10/24 Officially many Russian politicians stated not being interested in the Crimea, but Ukraine knew it could be deception. Putin claimed in 2008 having no interest in Crimea, January 2022 he denied any invasion plans. Ukraine defused the Meshkov coup with its secret service.

11/24 In 2003 the Putin government bluntly started to built a damn that would add the Crimean Island of Tuzla to Russian mainland. While Russia denied the claim Ukraine send tugboats to prevent it from happening. A conflict was looming....

12/24 The matter got settled in the Tuzla treaty 2003 which underlined Ukraines sovereignty in the Black Sea around Crimea. There had been many treaties like the “Friendship treaty” or The Budapest Memorandum that had similar passages...tol no avail.

13/24 While Tuzla was settled things remained clouded. In 2008 Putin was asked by a German ARD journalist about the status of the penninsula. Putin replied: “ The Crimea is no disputed territory, it’s Ukraine off course.”
rferl.org/a/putin-crimea…

14/24 In the shadows Russia was doing different things. It bought op local Crimean media in 2007 via businessmen, together with its statemedia they spread the narrative of a failed Ukrainian State. Russian passports where handed out like candy on the penninsula.

15/24 There was a generation devide on the Crimea. The older generation that watched TV leaned to Russia. Young adults who used the internet leaned more to the EU.

16/24 Viktor Yanukovitsj had been a loyal cog for the Kremlin Machine. When he got elected (2010) one of the first things he did was prolong the lease of the Sevastopol harbor from 2017 to 2042. Sevastopol was essential to the Russian fleet, Yanukitsj served Russian interests.

17/24 There's a perssistent hoaxstory of the whole Crimea being pro Russia. While in 1991 the majority had decided to remain with Ukraine in Ukraine, the poll in 2013 the results were even more outspoken. Only 23% thought it should join Russa.

18/24 In the aftermath of the Maidan Revolution Putin decided to use the unrest to send special forces to claim Crimea. Initially he denied involvement stating it were the Crimeans themselves. Later that changed to “off course it was us”.

19/24 The final proof of the planned nature of the operation came in a surprisingly small detail. Russia had handed out medals of service for those that had helped in the return of the Crimea. Russia established the medal on 21st March 2014....But lets look at the dates....

20/24 On 18 March 2014 the agreement was signed to hold a 'referendum' as seen on the medal. Also present is the date 20 February 2014. Very remarking as Yanukovitsj was still in power....Russia had planned the Crimean Coup long before.....

21/24We can ask why Ukraine didn’t fight back harder on Crimea. One element was the surprise. Lesser known is that sabotage also played a role. Bureaucrats still loyal to Yanukovitsj had sabotaged army enlistment files, Ukraine lost the momentum to strike back.

22/24 In 2015 Russia organised it sham referendums. The Tartar population collectively blocked the whole thing. Putin came with the revelation that nearly 100% had voted yes on the matter, which was a bogus claim. Then again voting 'no' resulted into threats and intimidation...

23/24 VICE NEWS has a revealing docu on the Crimea that shows you how deep propaganda went. A zoo owner claimed his lions would have fought against the Ukrainians. “Ukrainian nationalists wanted to exterminate Russians.”

24/24 Not everyone believed the Russian propaganda though. Crimean Tartars were underterred. Currently the resistence group Atesh (consisting of mainly Tartars) is vital for Ukrainian intelligence on the penninsula.

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