Lei Gong Profile picture
Mar 6 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Another way to put it is China investing in their own production at China size and scale destroys profit opportunity for western businesses. They want China to switch to a consumer economy because then it’s the govt financing buyers rather than financing upstart competition.
This isn’t as much about what’s good for China’s own growth and welfare as fear of what a China that can produce at scale sufficient for itself does to western global profits. If everything was made in China but owned by America they wouldn’t complain about investment glut.
Which is also why tenor and content of these criticisms sound exactly like what they said about Japan in the 1970s and 80s. Debt shaming meanwhile is mostly opportunistic. If this were credit card or mortgage or sovereign welfare debt, especially if controlled by western banks,
And especially for purchase of western controlled goods, they wouldn’t be beating drums so loudly, like they don’t for poorer developing countries. It’s the sort of argument built on impressionistic associations made to exert persuasive pressure on an unrelated matter that’s…
Actually serving interests of someone else. Ultimately this discourse is less motivated by what’s good for China’s own economic development than it is by what’s good for Western interests in relation to China. The rest is a pseudo-intellectual wrapper for rhetorical persuasion.
And if you think about it this characterization is entirely consistent with how Western countries talk and think about “free trade”. It’s always framed in terms of opening markets for Western sellers to the benefit of poor country buyers who can’t make their own good products.
If poor countries can’t afford it they’ll even be able to take out loans from Western banks. Free trade is presented as a generosity and kindness to poor countries graced with benefits of superior western products. Meanwhile poor countries get to export commodities, but…
If rich western countries have money to buy up ownership to poor country commodities production that’s only fair, part of the free trade deal! Of course result also happens to be that western countries control their own exports out of poor countries, especially the trade profits.
The mood quickly turns if any part of this equation is disrupted, like if the poor country tries to attain ownership of profits for their own exports, or erecting they’re own high value goods producers without opportunity for western finance to attain controlling stakes, etc.
The playbook is remarkably consistent once you peel back the artifice. Countries that don’t allow one of three levers of Western control (control over production, control over profits, control over ownership) are all accused of cheating, wasteful investing, or unwise debts.
It’s supremely ironic that China gets accused of mercantilism when the global “free trade” system, once you really observe how western countries like to referee it, looks so much like the colonial mercantilist system, only with financial rather than colonial ownership mechanisms.

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More from @gonglei89

Jun 14, 2023
Only “partly” true. Demand for real estate as housing *is* driving construction. It gets crowded out some when speculation drives up prices forcing those who want new houses for living to save even more just to keep up with price inflation. Meanwhile those buying multiple houses
Are indeed buying partly to acquire investment assets, but that doesn’t mean they keep houses empty. They are also buying for their kids, their parents, or other family members, especially if one member in a family has favorable hukou as starting point to pull other families in.
In this way buying multiple properties acts as a two for one method to improve a whole family’s economic circumstances, both by pulling families into better geographies and by giving them a hard asset that grants long term wealth security. It’s why property is so desirable.
Read 19 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
The semantic definition of totalitarian is usually that all/most people are experiencing this kind of repression and not just some. Otherwise we’d consistently be saying America is/was a totalitarian state because of how it actively repressed black people and socialists.
Some people are going to parachute in and say that America is in fact a totalitarian state. I don’t agree with this claim but I think at the very least people should be consistent about how they apply concepts. If America is totalitarian then so is China. I think neither are.
Others are going to parachute in and say well that’s just America it’s not other liberal democracies, but anticommunist repression was pretty much everywhere in the US aligned world during the Cold War and many democracies had their own grisly postcolonial repression projects.
Read 13 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
Lord help this person. ImageImageImageImage
Who could have foreseen where this conversation would end up when it starts like this 😒 ImageImageImageImage
I must’ve really touched a nerve because I muted him *and he’s still going* Image
Read 4 tweets
May 1, 2023
The reason pieces like this never age well is because they do supplier analysis based on current level of foreign adoption, don’t bother to observe state of available domestic substitutes beyond marketshare.

Also, German and US suppliers themselves often have Chinese suppliers.
One reason trying to hit the whole supply stack down to the last screw doesn’t yield meaningful effect is that at some point you’re chasing down simpler and simpler subassemblies that are easy to reproduce, and it turns out China already supplies most of those to Western firms.
For example, things like glass and fiber optics production may have German or American ownership and IP, but the factories that make them are in China, and if you dog the supply chain enough it’s an easy step for Chinese factories to get nationalized or forked to a domestic firm.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 21, 2023
Okay. This is the part of the narrative that is completely incoherent to me. Throughout 2022 critics were fervent about scrapping 0 Covid. Not “gradually”. Just let it happen logic. But when govt does what critics recommend suddenly everyone complains about being not prepared?
The “Omicron is unstoppable we should just let it happen” argument is completely at odds with the “we should have opened slower” argument. Literally the reason people cited for “we should just let it happen” was “you can’t slow omicron”. You can’t have it both ways.
And of course we already saw what happened when other countries try to open “slowly” against Omicron. They were overwhelmed and gave up. This was always stark binary choice with hard costs in either direction. Smacks of denialist psychology to imagine opening wouldn’t be chaotic.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 20, 2023
Earlier I said this management model sounds a lot like how the Chinese political system works. But I think the far more profound takeaway is that this model is what it looks like when platform aggregation theory gets applied to internal organizations. hbr.org/2023/03/how-ch…
Network effect aggregated digital platforms allow for a new form of centralization completely different from common conception. Instead of a one directional centralization in the structure of a pyramid they allow multiple node hub and spoke structures, a circular centralization.
This circular centralization takes the vertically ordered layers of a pyramid and flattens them out into concentric rings of control and resource flow. But because contact points around a central circle can be distributed more laterally and thus broadly than a vertical pyramid,
Read 4 tweets

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