Arnaud Bertrand Profile picture
Mar 11 3 tweets 3 min read Read on X
This is hands-down the best explanation I've heard on why sanctions on Russia backfired, and why they were never going to succeed in the first place.

By economist James K. Galbraith, professor at the University of Texas at Austin.

Best quote of his explanation: "This is a situation in which the sanctions were imposed by one important sector of the world economy which then cut itself off from resources that it needs - and that's particularly true of Western Europe - in return for cutting Russia off from various things that Russia doesn't really need."

Second best quote: "If you go back to the period before the introduction of the sanctions [...] the Russian economy was very heavily colonized by Western firms. That was true in automobiles, it was true in aircrafts, it was true in everything from fast food restaurants to big box stores. Western firms were present all throughout the Russian economy. A great many of them [...] either chose to exit Russia or were pressured to exit Russia after early 2022. So on what terms did they leave? Well, they were required, if they were leaving permanently, to sell their capital equipment, their factories and so forth, to let's say a Russian business which would get a loan from Russian banks or maybe have other sources of financing, at a very favorable price for the Russians. So effectively a lot of capital wealth, which was partly owned by the West, has been transferred to Russian ownership. And you now have an economy which is moving forward and has the advantage compared to Europe of relatively low resource costs because Russia is a great producer of resources, oil and gas and fertilizer and food stuff and so forth. And so while the Europeans are paying maybe twice in Germany what they were paying for energy, the Russians are not, they're paying perhaps less than they were paying before the war. So again I characterize the effect of the sanctions, in fact as being in certain respects a gift to the Russian economy. And this is, I think, quite different from what the authors of the sanctions expected. [...] And the essence of the situation is this would not have happened without the sanctions. You could have had the war, and it would have gone pretty much as it has gone. But the Russian government in 2022 was in no position to force the exit of Western firms. It didn't want to, wouldn't have done that. It was in no position to force its oligarchs to choose between Russia and the West. It didn't wish to do that. These choices were imposed by the West, and the results were actually, in many respects, favorable to the long-term independent development of the Russian Federation's economy."
Link to the video on YouTube:
Legitimate question 👇 Maybe the sanctions had exactly the effect they intended to have, just not the publicized one...

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More from @RnaudBertrand

Feb 15
ROC (Taiwan) coastguards killed two mainland fishermen, which I believe are the first such casualties in the Taiwan strait in many years, if not decades.


They died off the coast of the Kinmen archipelago, which belongs to the ROC but which itself is just a couple of miles away from the Chinese mainland. Kinmen was in the news recently as Taiwanese media reported the US had dispatched special forces on the archipelago on a permanent basis (), which is extraordinarily provocative.

So far PRC authorities have been extremely restrained in their response, just condemning the "malignant incident" and asking for an immediate investigation by the ROC. Which goes to show that China is NOT looking for a confrontation in the Taiwan strait, as this is the type of incident that could be a casus belli.

Just imagine for a minute the worldwide outcry if those fishermen had been from the ROC, and killed by the PRC... We just wouldn't hear the end of it.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb…
newsweek.com/american-speci…
This 👇 is also an interesting coincidence, just as these fishermen were being killed...
scmp.com/news/china/dip…
I think this is my 1st ever community note, and quite a ridiculous one.

If the coastguards made a boat capsize whilst chasing it (I doubt it magically capsized on its own and the sea is anything but rough there), and 2 people died as a result... then the coastguards killed them. Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
This is quite something! This is John Lander - Australia's former ambassador to Iran and Deputy Ambassador to China - explaining what the "rules-based order" actually is.

In his words it's "a set of ever varying, constantly vacillating rules devised by the United States for the benefit of the United States and its Western allies." He points out that "one of the most difficult thing about the rules-based order is finding out what the rules are!"

Link to the whole interview at the end of the thread.
On this topic I've been making the point since the beginning of Israel's war on Gaza that if one takes a step back, it's really at heart a war of the "rules-based order" against international law 👇. And I really believe that's a key prism to view the war.
In the same interview Lander also speaks about the war on Gaza from an international law perspective:

"The Palestinians don't have a state... [They're] under forceful occupation by Israel so the actions by Hamas - as horrendous as it was - is more in the character of a rebellion against the oppression of an occupying power than an invasion of one state by another. [It's] a paradox because [Israel] claim that Gaza and the West Bank do actually belong to Israel and that the Palestinians have no right to it, so on the one hand they say 'it is ours' and on the other hand they say 'we've been invaded' from within our own territory..."
Read 4 tweets
Jan 30
This is a absolutely fantastic example of data manipulation. Credit to @nikstankovic_ for spotting it (you can see his reply to @AgatheDemarais's post).

Not surprising coming from The Economist but the manipulation is still quite insane once you understand it.

Let me explain 🧵
Image
So what you understand from The Economist's graph is exactly what @AgatheDemarais understood: "oh my god, Japan has been 'derisking' from China for years, their economic reliance on China is low, Germany is so behind!".

Right? Well, it's TOTALLY wrong.
As a matter of fact Japanese exports to China are 26% higher than German exports to China 👇. 153B in exports to China from Japan in 2021 vs 121B from Germany.

Those are the actual numbers.
Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 30
This is one of the best talks I've heard in a while on China's economy, by Eric Li, a famous Chinese VC and political scientist.


I summarize the main points in a short 🧵
First of all, he argues there was a fundamental misunderstanding of China by the US. The US convinced itself China would stay in the "peripheral" forever 👇 whilst China's objective was always to move up and be part of the "core". Image
This is how he describes the "first phase of China's globalization", with the "3 pillars" of its market economy being real estate, consumer internet and industrial capacity & global supply chain (on top of infrastructure building handled by the state). Image
Read 18 tweets
Jan 29
"Democratic" Europe... where if you express a legitimate dissenting opinion as a country - and the interests of your citizens - a revengeful EU commission will cause your economic collapse.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
This is huge:

Top Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth confirms Israel used the "Hannibal directive" on Oct 7th, which calls to kill Israeli hostages along with their captors.

This is the exact quote from the paper:

"At midnight on October 7, the IDF ordered all of its combat units in practice to use the 'Hannibal Directive', although without clearly mentioning this explicit name. The order was to stop 'at all costs' any attempt by Hamas terrorists to return to Gaza, that is despite the fear that some of them have hostages.

It is estimated that about a thousand terrorists and infiltrators were killed in the area between the Otaf settlements and the Gaza Strip. It is not clear at this time how many of the hostages were killed due to the activation of this command. In the week after the attack, soldiers of elite units checked about 70 vehicles that were left in the area between the Otaf settlements and the Gaza Strip. These are vehicles that did not reach Gaza, because on the way they were shot by a combat helicopter, an anti-tank missile or a tank, and at least in some cases everyone in the vehicle was killed."ynet.co.il/news/article/y…
Not sure if you remember these photos of burned vehicles reported by all the media as "destroyed by Hamas" (here Reuters 👇)? Well the Yedioth Ahronoth investigation now confirms they were in fact destroyed by the IDF... Image
Sorry, Google translation mistake apparently: this part should read "One of the revelations exposed in the investigation is that at noon on October 7th, the IDF instructed all its combat units in the field to implement 'Hannibal Directive'


This is because apparently the phrase "שבחצות היום של 7" in Hebrew translates to "at the midnight of the 7th" or "at noon of the 7th," depending on the context.
Read 4 tweets

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