1/ THREAD. How do we know the #CivilWar was caused by #slavery? Academic historians will know this but this is intended for others.
It's not enough just to say it. Let's get the evidence out there.
2/ Look at the facts and circumstances involving the explosive events of the 1850s and Lincoln's election in 1860.
3/ Other causes that have historically been offered up are usually about slavery as an underlying cause.
What else but slavery caused economic differences and the collapse of the Second Party System?
4/ If you read the work of @e_turiano, William Link, @smccurry3 (among many others), we can see that historians now recognize that the fears of slave insurrection and slaves escaping to the North were major factors that pushed enslavers toward secession in 1859 and 1860.
5/ Slavery was immensely valuable. It was built into and inextricably linked with the South's banking system; its culture; its political structure; and its society.
6/ In many cases, representatives from counties in southern states with high percentages of slaves relative to the total population were the ones voting most enthusiastically for secession.
7/ The states with the highest percentages of slaves, relative to the total population, were the earliest to leave the union. Data is taken from the 1860 U.S. Federal Census.
8/ Major Confederate leaders emphasized how important slavery and white supremacy were when it came to secession. See the quotes from James Henley Thornwell, George William Richardson, and Alexander Stephens. Credit to @ProfMSinha for writing about Thornwell.
9/ Slavery was explicitly written into the Confederate Constitution.
10/ Look at the secession documents. These were the justifications that South Carolina and Mississippi offered when they left the union.
11. It wasn't states' rights. While there are some exceptions and nuances, it is striking how often in U.S. history the banner of "states' rights" masked slavery and racism.
As historian James McPherson once asked, "states' rights for what?"
12/ African Americans knew it was about slavery. Debates that ignore their perspectives do a grave disservice to the historical record.
One of these is from Garrison Frazier. The other is from the National Convention of Colored Men in 1864. See also NYT June 2, 1861.
END.
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1. The last in my series of THREADS on Inflation and the Economy (Part 4 of 4) poses a media-centered explanation for Americans’ negative impressions of the economy and concludes with an exposition of key concepts intended to help us understand the complexities of our economy.
2. One of the best graphs that explains so much of our discourse was put together by @mcopelov. He used the database Lexis/Uni to look up stories on different topics over a 3-year period. You can see the outsized extent of inflation coverage.
3. Not only was the media covering inflation more than any other topic, but it was focusing on an inherently negative topic while an impressive economic recovery was under way. No wonder people have been so unhappy with the economy.
1. This third THREAD in my 4-part series on Inflation and the Economy analyzes the uniquely American conundrum of a gap between consumer sentiment and the macroeconomic indicators of our economy.
Here I’ll talk about the nature of the two political parties and COVID.
2. Parts 1 and 2 were fact-driven. Parts 3 and 4 will be more analytical (although of course any analysis requires facts).
3. Consumer sentiment tracked alongside macroeconomic indicators pretty well for 40 years. If the economy expanded or contracted, you’d see this movement reflected (accurately) in consumer sentiment. Then in 2020 the sentiment and indicators diverged.
1/33. Part 2 of 4 of my series of THREADs on Inflation and the Economy discusses the positive characteristics Americans should consider when they evaluate the economy.
2/33. COVID brought about three rounds of fiscal stimulus. One came with the CARES Act of March 2020. The second was passed in December 2020 and the third was part of President Biden’s American Rescue Plan in March 2021.
3/33. A typical individual could expect over $3,000 combined from these checks. According to an analysis from the Census Bureau, stimulus checks substantially reduced hardship from food shortages, financial instability, and anxiety.
1/58. Part 1 of 4 in my series of THREADs on Inflation and the Economy explores the various reasons why Americans might view the economy negatively.
2/58. What is inflation? It is the loss of purchasing power observable in rising prices and paying more money for the same amount of goods. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the inflation rate when it issues a monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) on a basket of goods.
3/58. Inflation can occur for several reasons and there are numerous theories to explain the phenomenon. One way to think about inflation is that rising prices are a response to some sort of imbalance between supply and demand.
a) GOP voters are misinformed about the seriousness of human-caused climate change (AGW) because:
b) they take cues from GOP political & media elites who:
c) are beholden to a well financed campaign of denial & deception from fossil fuel corporations.
3/99. Let’s start with voters. There’s a partisan & regional orientation to the distribution of Americans who think climate change is mostly caused by humans. Disappointing results from parts of Appalachia, the Gr Plains, and Mtn West overlap w/regions where conserv voters live.
Some random, disconnected thoughts...are we at the beginning of a new financial crisis leading to a recession?
Well, we just don't know and so many economic predictions come from either blowhards or people who don't have any specialized predictive power.
For example, how often have you heard predictions of an imminent recession only to see the BLS comes out with a report saying we added 500,000 jobs per month? It seems like a discourse dominated by Republicans who just *wanted* a recession so they could blame it on Biden.
It's only about a week since we learned about a very large bank collapse. The *feel* (admittedly not very precise) of the headlines suggests that there is pain ahead and a lot of people are scared. In and of itself that can mean something since psychology influences the economy.