Thread by @Alihashem

It’s been 5 months since the war, and the Lebanese front is no different when it comes to the wider conflict. The depth of exchanges on the border has varied over time. Yet there were three targets that Hezbollah had hit with high significance, the Mount Meron air control base, the Northern Command HQ in Safed, and the Golan.

As for Safed, there was no claim of responsibility, Meron has been hit several times now, and it’s a strategic target, but what about The Golan? The significant difference here is that it’s the first time since 1973 that the occupied territory has been under continuous attacks, that’s a clear indication that Hezbollah has decided to expand horizontally is a response to Israel’s vertical expansion of attacks.

Since the beginning of 2024, Israel has made some bold moves in Lebanon, assassinated Hamas commander Saleh Arouri in Beirut southern suburb, attacked near Sidon and Tyre, and in February and March launched airstrikes in the Bekaa to the east of Lebanon.

What’s interesting is that after five months, both Hezbollah and Israel are still fighting on the edge without any side taking the initiative towards an all out war despite all the threats. It’s still a campaign between wars, or to be accurate during an existing war. This applies to other fronts too.

My analysis is that we can’t anymore refer to rules of engagement based on depth and distance, rather targets, and this is going to be the determining factor for the direction of events. What’s Hezbollah’s objectives and what’re those of Israel?

Israel’s main objective is getting Hezbollah out of the border area, and destroy as much infrastructure as possible based on its bank of targets. It’s succeeding in turning the border area into a burned area, but Hezb is still present at the front edge. Also, Israel is provoking Hezb to use its strategic weaponry.

and that’s not happening, the group is still far from being pushed to do that, all what’s in use is operational assets that Israel experienced over the years, or saw Hezb using in Syria or Iraq. And that’s preventing Israel from knowing or tracing the warehouses or launching areas for such weapons.

That’s one of the reasons why an all out war hasn’t erupted yet. Hezbollah’s use of modified Katyusha rockets isn’t only helping to drive the fight further, but also depleting Israel’s stockpiles of antimissile batteries. It’s also burning hundreds of thousands of dollars in each launch.

This salvo, maybe 40 rockets (1x$2000 each) was intercepted by Iron dome (1x$70,000 each), the math is part of the war here. Israel too is intensifying its strikes to deplete Hezbollah forces, assassinations is proving to be a very serious issue for Hezb.

On both sides of the border there’re now empty villages with more than 100,000 people displaced on each front, that’s a heavy price for both without doubt.

It’s a war of points and each side is trying to make the most of it while keeping away from an miscalculated adventure, that’s why we’ve been seeing this battle escalate day after day but feeling that’s it’s the same thing every day. Too much mind games to watch and analyse.