Worpel is Merrett conscious, that works for us. Zach is happy to sit outside the first layer of the contest, Worpel and Newcombe are the Hawks two best ball winners, Setterfield keeps Newcombe from the drop of the ball. Durham...
...ensures he is between his opponent and the drop of the ball and it gives him a clear run at it.
He wins the 1st Centre Clearance of 2024, from his first career Centre Bounce Attendance.
Handballs to Gresham, who should have lowered his eyes, but at least the entry was deep.
And here is the value of deep entries, assuming you get a contest, which Langford provided, and then pressure on the exit, which Guelfi provided.
You get to concentrate your defensive press on one part of the ground. McGrath got the ball to ground, we get a re-entry & a ball up.
Our first kick-in set up. Clearly looking to defend the corridor. I'm not sure Stringer and Langford do enough to get into position.
And an early example of Guelfi staying Sicily focussed rather than zone focussed (not a criticism).
There's a big hole for Hawk to exit via.
And then our first kick-in. Martin's grubber is recovered by Hepp, who wins a free. And then it's a fast break.
I'd love to see the behind-the-goals angle here and see what our forwards were doing, because Merrett ends up stopping, and we go wide and slow. Wasted opp.
Zach Reid sweeping, directing traffic.
Hawks second kick-in.
Cox intercept mark, Sicily skill error but Cox is well positioned and a hard man to kick over.
He hits Wright in the pocket, who converts.
We've started well. Inside 50's 7 to 1.
D50 Stoppage.
Stringer has pushed up (left of screen), it leaves Redman our +1, I'm not sure he needs to be this close to the stoppage but we win it regardless.
It gives Haw a +1 defending the exit. Sicily ends up getting a free. Need to use our +1 better.
We get to the wing from our 3rd kick-in, but turn it over (Merrett fumbles Durham's wild handball).
McKay is straight back and it does slow them down.
Neither Durham or Caldwell help Martin by tracking Ginnivan. He works harder than both of them.
At these two F50 stoppages you get a bit of an idea of how we want to set up to defend transition.
Wright sits out (he's our ruck at this stage), Stringer rucks. Reid sweeps. Switch exit well covered.
Hawks go I50 from the 2nd of the stoppages, thanks to a good spoil on McKay
I thought Jones contested well yesterday.
I thought generally our forwards sat too deep and didn't get to enough contests, Jones included.
Here we get a throw-in from a 3-on-1.
Deep Entry (and Stoppage).
We set up with an extra man (Goldy).
It's scrappy but we win the ball back and go forward.
But because it's scrappy, it's a shallow entry.
Harder to defend. Hawks go forward, we're out of position.
Ball falls to Bruest (circled) and they go end-to-end. Ball ends up back with Bruest, who misses.
We're clearly trying to move the ball faster than in 2023.
We're going to see our transition suffer in the short term because of it. We'll get punished on our mistakes.
Goldstein shifts across in the zone but his opponent Reeves doesn't. It opens up the ground and Hawthorn go end-to-end.
Massimo finds Gunston, who misses.
Our competitiveness and pressure at the contest was as good as I've seen it in a long while. Here it's Goldstein, who forces a spillage, Setterfield swoops. It's a good kick to Guelfi who has dragged Sicily with him.
It's a good kick then to Stringer. Who rolls and goals.
F50 entry from a CB. Kick favours Frost, who intercept Marks.
Note Stringer on Weddle in the first graphic. He's no where in the second. Zach has to leave Mackenzie to cover. The overlap is on and they share the ball through the corridor.
It's a Chol mark Inside 50.
It just takes one to drop off, and it all opens up.
Chol misses.
That will do me for Q1. I'll pick up Q2 tomorrow.
Q2. We go forward (kind of) from the first CB and it's a good example of the dirty work, repeat efforts that were part of Archie's game on Saturday. I liked this more than the goals.
He keeps a big opponent from the drop of the ball, he pressures, he finds Merrett under pressure
The ball scrambles just forward of the wing, Cox is a bit unlucky to give away a free in the tackle on Massimo.
Again our HF's are slow to react. Guelfi does the "do I stay on Sicily or do I go", Gresham is already up the ground.
It's an easy inboard kick to Impey.
We slow Impey down, he goes down the line to Lewis.
But Redman hasn't tracked Watson, Lewis' kick into the corridor is great.
Then both Redman and Durham let Moore run past, he gets the handball, kicks Inside 50, then follows up, gets another handball and goals.
This is better. A shallow entry, but we are well set up, slow them down and win the ball back. Cox is tackled in the act of kicking, Haw get it back but we're well set up to defend the inboard kick.
Hepp doesn't overcommit, he sweeps and Redman attacks the ball.
This ends up with Merrett marking 50m out, and then hitting up Stringer, who misses.
The Hawks then take one out of the Pies playbook, play on from the kick-in to the numbers, then open up the other side of the ground for a fast switch.
Weddle torches Gresham and no one helps him by closing space in front of him.
Weddle keeps running and kicks a point.
We work the kick-in well.
Redman to Reid. The touch on Reid's kick to Martin is excellent.
Martin is over-ambitious with his kick, he had Langford but tried to go longer to Langford, Massimo intercepts.
The turnover leaves the corridor wide open. Massimo has three options, Impey has three options.
Martin does well to close Nash down, spoil, get the ball back but his handball Inside 50 is another turnover.
And the ground is wide open. This is an example of a poor entry and turnover, resulting in coast-to-coast transition that I mentioned on game day. It's so hard to defend against.
We're lucky the kick doesn't go to Bruest. Hepp is strong in the contest, we get it back.
McGrath works back hard, he combines with Redman to carry it out of D50 and his kick to Merrett is a beauty.
I know he made mistakes, let's not ignore his qualities in doing so.
The absolute worst thing Jones can do here is let the ball out. Even if he gets done for holding the ball, we at least give ourselves a chance to set up.
He takes the tackle, holds it in. We get a ball up.
They do win the stoppage and Chol marks and goals.
Some good little forward craft from Langford, Gresham, Caldwell to leave the little pocket here for Stringer.
We did a good job on Saturday of not letting Hawthorn get a real run on, every time the pulled forward we were able to get one back.
Mentioned this on our Patreon First Thoughts. Good intercept mark to Hepp, he hits Martin.
Setterfield doesn't clear out of the corridor, which means his opponent blocks off Goldstein's leading lane and Martin goes wide to a 2-on-1 under pressure.
Results in a turnover, the Hawks get a repeat entry.
Thankfully for us, the Wizard hits the post.
Another good kick by McGrath, who recognises Wright is in a favourable position.
Weights it beautifully. Wright then marks and goals.
A stoppage goal to end Q2. Even though the Hawks have an extra number, it's work rate by Menzie and a great contest and handball by Wright.
For me, the bulk of our defensive woes in Q2 were caused by ball use, rather than defensive application itself (some exceptions).
Q3.
Langford out marked by Hardwick. We setup quickly, slow them down and we shift as they switch, twice.
This is better. They get a lucky bounce, allows Amon to get it to Massimo. But we're well setup down the line.
Part 2.
Unfortunately the Kelly kick isn't to Stringer's favoured side, who now has Sicily for company, and we turn it over. And turn it over corridor side.
From there, the fat side of the ground is wide open.
There's no cover for Martin and the Hawks go coast-to-coast. Another example of poor skill execution making defending transition all the harder. Martin needs to get back faster though.
My man Jack hits Chol, who goals.
This might be an optical illusion, but using the man on the mark as a guide...
I reckon if your hips are pointing to right of goals, your body leans to the right of goals, there's a fair chance the ball is going to end up to the right of the goals.
We were able to create a turnover. Archie wanted this ball, he wanted the opportunity. He didn't disappoint.
Whilst our transition defence wasn't good enough, our pressure around the footy was a lot better. This Setterfield chase and tackle ends up in Peter Wright's hands Inside 50. Unfortunately it ends up on the full.
Scores from Turnovers 🫣
This is something I thought we did well all day. We responded every time Hawthorn challenged and it happened at the contest.
Gresham, Langford, Jones and Caldwell scrap and scrap.
Then Perkins adds the class with the finish.
To improve, we'll need to create more of these "ugly" opportunities and reduce the reliance on clean ball.
Caldwell comes up to cover Ward, who doesn't get the footy, he's then content to just stop on Nash, who was never going to be a target.
Menzie goes to Amon's right and not his left.
Disappointing. We peg one back via Guelfi to finish Q3.
Q4. The first few minutes are worth watching.
We stop the Hawks first four exits from our F50 and create repeat entries. We get a throw-in.
Guelfi goes to Newcombe to help create space for Stringer. Sicily sits out, he's not interested.
Guelfi ends up with the ball.
Guelfi draws a crowd including Durham's opponent in Massimo, because Massimo's captain has decided he's going to let Guelfi go free at a F50 stoppage and let Newcombe try and stop both Guelfi and Stringer.
Caldwell cuts through the contest, gets past Sicily. We get the 1st of Q4
Menzie's work here is excellent. Gets up from HF into the post CB contest, pressures and wins the footy.
Then keeps running after handballing to Durham.
Setterfield probably makes the right decision to kick to Langford (misses the target), but he could have also gone to Menzie
I'd like to see more of this from Menzie, getting a bit higher up the ground and running back to goal.
Better defending of the switch. We shift across with the ball, the Hawks don't get any further up the ground.
Tsatas sits off the mark to cover space. As soon as it is called play on he shuts down Massimo's left foot.
We have coverage down-the-line and in the corridor.
We get a skill error, and then Caldwell a run down tackle.
His kick Inside 50 finds a target.
We scored 3.2 from F50 turnovers and this from a Forward of Centre Turnover. It wasn't all bad.
Haw have an extra down the line, so McGrath does the right thing and tries to create some overlap run.
Tsatas is clever enough to duck out the back as McGrath draws his man. But I reckon he might have been better off taking the tackle and spilling over the line.
The ball ricochets off Tstatas to Amon, and no one has picked up Moore.
McKay hesitates slightly. Lewis gives to Maginness. We're lucky he can't kick.
The skipper wasn't going to let us lose this one.
He hunts Massimo. Massimo coughs it up.
Guelfi gathers, kicks to Langford. Langford juggles, marks, goals.
Caldwell. Perkins. Gresham. A 55 metre Bombers Bomb.
Langford kicks the sealer.
Redman onto the ground, goes to the wing. Both him and Duursma stand in a defensive position.
They're both involved in winning the ball back after we concede the clearance.
Redman's kick through the corridor is a beauty, Setters misses Jones.
That will do me. Some good, some very good. Some bad and some ugly.
If you've made it this far, thank you.
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With Vigo Visentini joining the Essendon Rookie List, Essendon has a full list of 38 Primary Listed players and 4 Rookie Listed players.
We have 2 Category B spots if we go that way, but let's look at our List depth as it stands.
#DonTheStat | #GoDons
This isn't an exercise in quality or AFL readiness.
Green equals primary position/role.
Yellow equals secondary/tertiary position/role.
Age in brackets is as at Jan 1, 2024.
Rule of thumb is there has to be some level of exposed form in a role at Training, AFL, VFL, U18 level.
Start with the backline. Players are in age order, not my ranking.
McKay bolsters key defence, I've relegated Laverde to a medium defender, along with Baldwin, but both of them can step up to key post if required.
Moneyball gets thrown around a lot in AFL circles these days. Rarely is it properly understood, with the focus on ‘money’ rather than ‘ball’.
I first read Michael Lewis’ book when it was thrown on my desk whilst I was working at Essendon.
At the heart of Bill James’ theory (a stats and data nerd that probably got picked last at school), was that the game was obsessed with outdated measurements.
His theory was that if you got players on base more often, you’d score more…
runs and that would lead to more wins.
For the A’s they couldn’t compete with the likes of the Yankees when it did come to money. That matters less in AFL. We all have the same salary cap.
So much focus is on Points For & Points Against in AFL. Wins and Losses.
Been thinking a lot about 'Goal Kicking Mids' lately (I'm weird that way), Archie Perkins is the one that is really developing his game to be one of those genuine 50/50 or thereabouts players.
#DonTheStat | #GoDons
🧵
1/2 his time as a midfielder, the other 1/2 having an impact in the fwd line.
My theory was that there aren't a lot of goal kicking mids anymore. Not pure Centre Bounce mids at least. Goal kicking mids are predominately kicking goals when they're playing forward...
...rather than from the midfield.
I dug into the Top 50 midfielders by way of Average Centre Bounce attendances a game. Not a perfect model but I thought it would filter out those that play predominately in the midfield.
Shout out to @JamesLowrie24 who had to endure my blow-by-blow analysis yesterday.
Time for a deeper look at what the hell happened.
#GoDons
Tough first lesson for Tsatas. Hazard a guess he hasn't set up as a half-forward at too many kick-ins though. Jayden Hunt isn't one you want to give that much space.
This is how teams go end-to-end on us so easily. One player out of position.
Phillips and Menzie turn their back on the footy. No one leading into the space that is there. We somehow manage to both fill the space for the long option and ignore the space for the short. Ball ends up being forced out of bounds.