Thread by @JeremyKonyndyk

Is famine in Gaza "looming" or "imminent" or "underway?"

What do terms like that mean in practice?

A quick primer on famine terminology, technical jargon, and plain language.

Humanitarians tend to be very cautious in using the term famine - it has a lot of power and shouldn't thrown around casually.

But that can lead to some confusion for laypeople.

Not to pick on Martin, but his statement ("imminent") is a good example.

https://x.com/UNReliefChief/status/1769746065991852212?s=20

Why is famine only "imminent" (i.e. not yet underway) if hunger and malnutrition are at famine levels and children are starting to die of starvation?

Because this verbiage refers to a formal famine *declaration*, rather than famine conditions per se.

Most times when humanitarians say "famine is looming/imminent/underway" they actually mean "a formal famine declaration is...."

This is a problem, because those are not the same thing. A famine declaration is a lagging indicator, only occurring once a famine is pretty advanced.

To declare famine, three quantitative thresholds must be met: severe food deprivation, child malnutrition, and overall mortality.

In practice, by the time those thresholds have been met, rigorously measured, and analyzed, famine is already well underway.
ipcinfo.org/famine-facts/e…

Those thresholds tend to be sequential, and thus predictive of an eventual declaration.

Famine-level food deprivation leads to severe malnutrition, which in turn leads ultimately to death from hunger or disease.

So at what point on that trajectory is famine "imminent?" YMMV.

A formal declaration also hinges on being able to measure and quantify those thresholds. That is often quite difficult in an active conflict environment.

It's extremely difficult right now in Gaza.

So that can further delay a declaration beyond the real onset of starvation.

FWIW, in our @RefugeesIntl statement on the IPC report, we chose to say that famine is "getting underway."

We feel that's the best reflection of the current reality. Famine-level hunger is widespread; malnutrition as well; deaths are beginning.

https://x.com/RefugeesIntl/status/1769837780920578123?s=20

But there should be no confusion about whether it remains possible to "avert" a famine at this point. That window has closed.

Famine level mortality is starting to rise and has a lot of momentum. This is now about containing the severity of the famine, not preventing it. //end