Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 22, 2024 20 tweets 7 min read Read on X
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.

He was completely obscure.Image
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support

Soon, he was to face elections Image
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment. Image
Back in 1999, Primakov had a nearly universal support. With 84 out of 89 governors backing him, his victory seemed all but predetermined. Total bipartisan support in the political establishment combined with the wide popularity in masses seemed like a winning combination.Image
With all the support of Kremlin, and with the FSB behind him, Putin was still an underdog. He was to face more popular (like 20 times more popular) candidate backed by almost the entire regional elite. That seemed like an impossible bid

Unless he would play some magic trick Image
In September 1999, Russia saw four major apartment bombings. 1 in Dagestan, 1 in Volgodonsk, 2 in Moscow. All the four attacks targeted large residential buildings (the standard type of accommodation in the country)

All four were allegedly performed by the Chechen separatists Image
The apartment bombings involved massive civilian casualties. More than 300 dead, more than 1700 wounded. As the attacks apparently targeted "normal" residential buildings, pretty much everyone in the country could see themselves in danger.

The atmosphere was somewhat psychotic. Image
September 1999 timeline

4-16 - the apartment bombings
16 - the Parliament confirms Putin as the Prime Minister
24 - Putin makes his famous speech, promising to kill terrorists everywhere he can find them, including in the toilet Image
October 1, 1999, Russia troops cross the border of Chechnya, aiming to topple the separatist regime in Grozny. This short victorious war boosted Putin out of nothing. In August, he was a noname. By December, he was the national hero, and the saviour of the motherland. Image
The war made Putin popular. By the time Yeltsin stepped down, he was already the most popular politician in the country. In 2000 he score an easy victory on the presidential elections, succeeding his patron.

Without the war, he would have never made it. He needed the war badly. Image
That's why the entire story with the apartment bombings looked suspicious. The bombings came too timely and were just too convenient for the obscure, unknown Putin, who needed the popularity for his forthcoming Presidential elections

Especially in the light of the Ryazan sugarImage
Of all the real or alleged terrorist attacks in Russia, the Ryazan story looked the shadiest. As terrorists seemed to target "normal" buildings, the country got increasingly terrified, vigilant and psychotic. Regular citizens were checking their basements looking for explosives
On September 22, 1999 Alexey Kartofelnikov living on Novoselov 14/16 in a provincial city of Ryazan noticed an unfamiliar car parked nearby his residential building. Its passengers took several white bags and carried them into the basement of his house. Image
As the strangers left, inhabitants called the police. Police came and found several large bags from sugar - with a detonator. Police evacuated the inhabitants, announcing that these "sugar" bags contained hexagon. Next day, it was all in the news. Image
Same night the police arrested two suspects. To their surprise they showed the FSB id cards. Soon, the Moscow FSB office called the Ryazan police and ordered a release of their agents. Image
What was in the bags? The authorities gave different versions. Before the FSB agents were arrested, Putin told these were the real explosives and thanked the Ryazan citizens for their vigilance. They helped to prevent a real terrorist attack.
After the arrest, the official version changed. Putin's deputy Patrushev explained these were no explosives, but the normal sugar. The FSB agents drove to Ryazan, bought sugar, and put it to the basement checking the vigilance of the locals. So, it was only the training.
Some believed in the official explanation, others did not. Felshtinsky and Litvinenko wrote a book, claiming that the 1999 bombings that brought Putin to power, were all the FSB false flag operation. They blew up the houses, and blamed in on Chechens to start the war Image
Here you can find a pretty good summary of these events + useful links and materials. It's all in Russian, but understandable with the Google Translate

svoboda.org/a/30172990.html
And the last detail. What was interesting about the Moscow bombings, is that they targeted poorer, non affluent districts of the East and South. If it was a false flag operation, then it was designed in a way that the elite/upper class would not get hurt even accidentally

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More from @kamilkazani

Jun 18
Hard to swallow pill

Global politics are usually framed in terms of kindergarten discourse (“good guys” vs “bad guys”) with an implication that you must provide “good guys” with boundless and unconditional support

BUT

Unconditional support is extremely corrupting, and turns the best of the best into the really nasty guys, and relatively fast
Part of the reason is that neither “bad” nor “good” guys are in fact homogenous, and present a spectrum of opinions and personalities. Which means that all of your designated “good guys” include a fair share of really, really nasty guys, almost by definition.

Purely good movements do not really exist
That is a major reason why limitless, unconditional, unquestioning support causes such a profound corrupting effect upon the very best movement. First, because that movement is not all
that purely good as you imagine (neither movement is),
Read 4 tweets
Jun 14
On Trump's birthday

Let's have a look at these four guys. Everything about them seems to be different. Religion. Ideology. Political regime. And yet, there is a common denominator uniting all:

Xi - 71 years old
Putin - 72 years old
Trump - 79 years old
Khamenei - 86 years old Image
Irrespectively of their political, ideological, religious and whatever differences, Russia, China, the United States, Iran are all governed by the old. Whatever regime, whatever government they have, it is the septuagenarians and octogenarians who have the final saying in it.
This fact is more consequential than it seems. To explain why, let me introduce the following idea:

Every society is a multiracial society, for every generation is a new race

Although we tend to imagine them as cohesive, all these countries are multigenerational -> multiracial
Read 7 tweets
Jun 7
In 1927, when Trotsky was being expelled from the Boslhevik Party, the atmosphere was very and very heated. One cavalry commander met Stalin at the stairs and threatened to cut off his ears. He even pretended he is unsheathing he sabre to proceed

Stalin shut up and said nothing
Like obviously, everyone around could see Stalin is super angry. But he still said nothing and did nothing

Which brings us to an important point:

Nobody becomes powerful accidentally
If Joseph Stalin seized the absolute control over the Communist Party, and the Soviet Union, the most plausible explanation is that Joseph Stalin is exercising some extremely rare virtues, that almost nobody on the planet Earth is capable of

Highly virtuous man, almost to the impossible level
Read 7 tweets
Jun 1
Growing up in Russia in the 1990s, I used to put America on a pedestal. It was not so much a conscious decision, as the admission of an objective fact of reality. It was the country of future, the country thinking about the future, and marching into the future. Image
And nothing reflected this better than the seething hatred it got from Russia, a country stuck in the past, whose imagination was fully preoccupied with the injuries of yesterday, and the phantasies of terrible revenge, usually in the form of nuclear strike. Image
Which, of course, projected weakness rather than strength

We will make a huuuuuuge bomb, and drop it onto your heads, and turn you into the radioactive dust, and you will die in agony, and we will be laughing and clapping our hands

An old man yelling at clouds Image
Read 9 tweets
May 2
Fake jobs are completely normal & totally natural. The reason is: nobody understands what is happening and most certainly does not understand why. Like people, including the upper management have some idea of what is happening in an organisation, and this idea is usually wrong.
As they do not know and cannot know causal relations between the input and output, they just try to increase some sort of input, in a hope for a better output, but they do not really know which input to increase.
Insiders with deep & specific knowledge, on the other hand, may have a more clear & definite idea of what is happening, and even certain, non zero degree of understanding of causal links between the input and output

(what kind of input produces this kind of output)
Read 6 tweets
Apr 12
There is a common argument that due process belongs only to citizens

Citizens deserve it, non citizens don’t

And, therefore, can be dealt with extrajudicially

That is a perfectly logical, internally consistent position

Now let’s think through its implications
IF citizens have the due process, and non-citizens don’t

THEN we have two parallel systems of justice

One slow, cumbersome, subject to open discussion and to appeal (due process)

Another swift, expedient, and subject neither to a discussion nor to an appeal (extrajudicial)
And the second one already encompasses tens of millions of non citizens living in the United States, legal and illegal, residents or not.

Now the question would be:

Which system is more convenient for those in power?

Well, the answer is obvious
Read 10 tweets

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