Thread by @JoohnChoe

A few key events happened in the world I'm tracking that it's probably worth recording publicly.

There are two things that can happen with Ukraine aid right now:

1/18

1) Johnson pushes it to April and, potentially, May, delaying aid even further using time-wasting never-pass legislation as cover

2) Hakeem Jeffries gets a vote on the Senate-passed aid supplemental in exchange for saving Johnson from Marjorie Taylor Green's motion to vacate.

Depending on the certainty of MTG's motion to vacate, the odds of timely passage of Ukraine aid are somewhere around 1 in 5, 1 in 3, I'd estimate.

It's simply much more likely that Republicans get away with muddying the waters and coming up with plausible-sounding bullshit to cover their asses with their patriotic voters, which what they're doing. It's working so far; why change that up.

So the first thing that can happen is, basically, nothing until May, at which point even more delay will set in. Unfortunately, that looks the likeliest.

On Saturday Mar 24 Mike McCaul went up on Face the Nation; McCaul is one of the "Three Mikes" - McCaul, Turner and Rogers - who are both (supposedly) pro-Ukraine as well as key to Republican strategy on the foreign aid bill.

McCaul said that House Speaker Mike Johnson plans to put "a Ukraine bill" (not "the" Ukraine bill, which would presumably mean the Senate-passed supplemental) up for a vote after the House returns from recess on April 9.

The difference is important: there are, at time of writing, three different options:

1) the Senate-passed foreign aid supplemental back from October, which is supported by the HR 1016 discharge petition to bring it to the floor

2) Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's "slimmed-down" aid and border reform package, which still doesn't have any chance of passing the Senate or gaining support from any but a few Democrats

3) some form of no-interest forgivable loan to Ukraine which Graham proposed to Zelenskyy last week

Only option 1) gets aid done in any kind of reasonable timeframe; both 2) and 3) would require reconciliation with what the Senate's already passed, which would incur even more time that pushes Ukraine aid further out into summer.

I don't think we know for certain which form of the foreign aid bill Johnson means to put up; Manu Raju's sources appear to think it's going to be 2, the Fitzpatrick plan. That's no bueno.

There are only 10 legislating days in April according to the current House recess calendar; the entirety of the first and third weeks of April are home district work weeks (basically, recess).

If the House under Johnson takes the most time possible to do this, which seems likely, Johnson is talking about something that quite easily ends in May.

The second thing that could happen is some form of trade where House Democratic leadership under Jeffries, et al., gets their members to vote, or at least abstain, to protect Speaker Johnson from a motion to vacate.

That motion to vacate got threatened by MTG on Friday, though the timing - because the House is in recess right now - is slightly up in the air. Green is being somewhat strategically (because, it's Green) opaque about it.

It makes sense to hold those cards close the chest, because no one else is calling for Johnson's removal at this time. Other reps who voted to remove McCarthy like Chip Roy aren't coming down one way or another on it; two others, Ralph Norman and Eli Crane, are considering it.

The problem is that Johnson has a historically slim margin after Santos' removal and Buck's Gallagher's resignations last week. Thus, Tim Burchett, who voted to remove McCarthy last time, says the process is likely to hand the Speakership to Democrats if Green does that.

It would be a historically stupid decision, something like the first Congressional majority in the history of the country that was so mind-bogglingly dumb that it voted and resigned itself out of the majority.

But this is Speaker Johnson, Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor-Green, so...

Gambino, Lauren, "Ukraine aid back on US agenda – but still at mercy of unruly Republicans", The Guardian, Mar 24 2024,

Face the Nation via HFAC YouTube channel, uploaded Mar 24 2024, theguardian.com/us-news/2024/m…

Metzger, Brian, "Marjorie Taylor Greene's threat to oust Mike Johnson could backfire and allow Congress to pass more Ukraine aid", Business Insider, Mar 25 2024 businessinsider.com/mtg-threat-ous…

Raju, Manu, "Johnson gives House GOP’s Ukraine backers room to craft plan as pressure builds for floor vote", CNN, Mar 3, 2024, cnn.com/2024/03/03/pol…