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A very interesting interview with Russian ex-diplomat Boris Bondarev: “Within a few months there will be nothing left to negotiate, and you will have 20 million refugees.”
Journalist/Author: Corry Hancke (@corryhancke)
Source: Gazet van Antwerpen (March 25, 2023)
The only Russian diplomat to resign in protest against the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 watches the European delays with sorrow. “Can you really only supply a few F16s by this summer, but not Taurus missiles?”
Boris Bondarev, a former member of Russia's permanent mission to the UN in Geneva, was ashamed of his country when it invaded Ukraine in 2022. He resigned in protest. He continued to live in Switzerland. From there, he now sees with dismay how European leaders hesitate to tackle Putin.
After major competitors were kept out, Putin won last Sunday's presidential election with 87.7 percent, the highest score he has ever achieved. There are many indications that fraud has occurred. Novaja Gazeta calculated that 22 million votes were 'fake'.
Why did Putin necessarily have to get such a high score?
“The president believes that he must score better in every election to impress the people and the world. But a score of 90 percent would look too much like a North Korean result. With 87.8 percent, even with a little after the decimal point, the regime wants to give the impression that the result is credible. It is important for Putin to show that his support base has not diminished now that his country is at war. Critics know that those figures are embellished, that he can no longer inspire people. But that doesn't matter. There is no one in Russia who disputes the result, there is no protest. And Putin knows it really worked.”
Would Putin have won without fraud?
“If the ballots had not been tampered, Putin would have obtained about 60 percent. He has controlled all media and propaganda for years. If there had been truly free elections in which every candidate had equal opportunities, Putin, I suspect, would have failed.”
Did the population vote for a continuation of the war?
“Suppose that almost 88 percent of the voters voted for Putin, does that mean that 88 percent want to go to the front? Does that 88 percent sponsor the Russian soldiers so that they are better equipped? Were those 88 percent ready to defend the Kremlin when Wagner boss Prigozhin organized his march on Moscow? No, there is not much enthusiasm for the war. There is a big gap between voting for Putin and approving his policies. This result says nothing about the support for the war.”
Did the president demand that he get such a high score?
“I don't think he orders anything. He has employees who know what is expected of them. Perhaps they asked him what score he would consider ideal, perhaps he replied that it had to be a convincing result. But I don't think he's concerned with such routines anymore. He is not interested in domestic politics. His focus is on the war, the confrontation with the West.”
Is the war against the West a way to stay in power, or does Putin really believe that he must restore the great Russian empire of the past?
“I think it's a mix. The war should inspire the Russians, whose daily lives are becoming increasingly difficult. They must realize that they live in a great country that scares everyone. The war also contributes to Putin’s glory. Going to war is easier and more glorious than pursuing careful policies that promote economic growth. The latter is now almost impossible. Putin changed nothing about the system, except at the beginning of his reign. It is built to suit a few, but it is not aimed at economic growth. To boost his declining popularity, Putin chose the traditional Russian path: war and expansion.”
Does Putin’s fate depend on the war?
"I think so. He invested a lot in this war, he explains everything through the lens of the war. If something goes wrong, he can't put it right anymore. He must win, otherwise he cannot explain why he dragged his country into a war.”
When did Putin win the war in his eyes?
“It is clear that he has the First and Second World Wars in mind. Putin wants to change the political map of the world because he does not want the US or other Western countries to have access to what he sees as his sphere of influence, especially the former Soviet countries, or perhaps even the former Warsaw Pact countries. He is convinced that the people of those countries will never revolt unless they receive support from the West. That's why he wants to weaken the West.”
“The Russian proposal for the Security Treaty of December 2021 is important. It states that the US and other NATO countries must promise not to interfere in Russia's domestic policy. That part was crucial for Russia, not the expansion of NATO.”
“But, if the war does not go according to plan, Putin may adjust his demands and settle for Crimea and the occupied territories. He must be able to annex at least one Ukrainian village so that he can show victory at home. Whether he can convince with that is another question.”
Some politicians in Europe are suggesting that there should be negotiations and that Putin should be given a trophy that will allow him to go home without losing face.
“How did things go in 1939 or 1941? As the German Wehrmacht approached, did Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt consider giving Hitler something to stop his advance? (Stalin made a pact with Hitler in 1939, he only came to the defense in 1941, after Germany attacked Russia, ed.) So, it doesn't work that way. You cannot calm an aggressor by granting him something. As a result, his appetite only grows. I don't understand why Western politicians are inclined to that idea. They play the role of the loser, the victim. Why? Germany has still not been attacked, but the country behaves as if it were already half occupied.”
Is French President Emmanuel Macron's strategy better? He does not rule out sending troops to Ukraine.
"Yes. And not just the French, but the Europeans and Americans should have said that from the beginning of the invasion. Maybe even before that when Russia brought more and more troops to the border of Ukraine.”
How could NATO threaten troops? Ukraine is not part of the alliance.
"And then? Switzerland is also not a member of NATO. What will you do if Russia invades Switzerland or drops nuclear bombs on it? Isn't that a threat to you? Threats do not take NATO rules into account, threats are determined geographically, economically, and politically.”
Important state leaders in Europe have domestic problems and elections they want to win. Isn't that important?
“Is that new? Kennedy also had domestic problems in 1962, but when the Russians wanted to install missiles in Cuba, he threatened to attack Russia. Every country has its own domestic issues, but if you allow a neighboring country to lose a war or a major power to change the rules, you will have even more problems at home. Everything is connected, isolationism is no longer of this day.”
Some fear that Putin will acquire nuclear weapons.
“Perhaps Putin also fears a nuclear attack. Maybe he doesn't want to spend days in a bunker only to be strangled by someone who survived the nuclear attack. Why don't they use language that Putin understands? Make it clear to him that he is not the only one who can deploy a nuclear weapon.”
“Macron finally understands that. Now, in the third year of the war, he finally sees that you must address Putin in his own language. The language of the strongest. An aggressor who has started a war must realize that there may be retaliation. Putin should not rest easy.
He now feels quite confident: his army is making progress; Ukraine has a lot of problems. Most likely he will announce a new mobilization to throw a large supply of fresh soldiers into the battle. Five hundred thousand troops will cut through the Ukrainian lines. In the meantime, some European leaders are still thinking about whether they should grant Putin something. Within months there will be nothing left to discuss, and you will have 20 million refugees. Do not forget that."
"Allow me. Can you only supply some F16s by this summer, not Taurus missiles? 31 Abrahams and 96 Leopard tanks, is that all? This is not a war against the Iraqi insurgents or the Taliban, this is an old-fashioned European war. The Ukrainians defend their country very well. If there is one people in Europe who can confront the Russians, it is the Ukrainians. But they need more sustained, consistent support or they are doomed.”
“I don't really understand what you want. You say that Putin should not win the war and Ukraine should not lose the war. That is ridiculous. This is not a win-win war. If Putin is in power, he will go for a win-lose war. If you don't want to win, that means you're willing to lose. You have no regard for your own interests. I don't think that one-sided diplomacy is a good idea.”
Are you angry?
“Yes, even more. I am disappointed that so many Western politicians are so short-sighted.”
Now about Russia itself. After the death of Alexei Navalny, many people came to his funeral. The opposition's campaign on election day was also successful. What should happen next?
“I think the protest will stop. I don't think the Russian opposition knows what it wants, it has no strategic vision. She wants Putin to go and a democracy to be installed. But the leaders of the opposition are not even able to consult with each other. There is no organization representing the Russian opposition and its members are unwilling to organize elections to establish a representative committee.
Maybe it's our Russian nature. We are not very good at democratic government because we have never learned to do so. Our historical traditions are much more authoritarian. Maybe the younger generations will do better.”
Everyone in the opposition supported the action on election day. Can Navalny's death unite them?
“That action was a good idea. It wasn't difficult to get everyone on board. But that was a one-time tactical decision, not a strategy. It's about how you see the road to democracy. Can Navalny's widow bring the opposition together? Don't know. Remember that Navalny and his team were not very popular with the other opposition groups. It will take a lot of effort to bring everyone together. Yulia Navalnaya has not come up with a plan so far either. When you talk to European leaders, you must come up with a proposal, say what you expect from the EU to oust Putin from power.”
The soldiers' wives or the women who stand up for the interests of political prisoners in Russia are brave. Can they set something in motion?
“I fear it is more dangerous for them now than before the elections. Putin is completely free and can promise the people who voted for him that he will rid society of those 'women who are victims of American propaganda'. I suspect the women will be arrested.”
“It is a widespread protest, but it is powerless. Most are unwilling to act in a way that puts them at risk. Placing flowers at Navalny's grave will not change the world. I fear that peaceful protest is no longer an option. But it is characteristic of the Russian opposition, which from the beginning has wanted to act within the possibilities of the law. That's not going to work.”
Do you see the future bleakly?
“You have to look for the lighter shadows in the dark.”
Where are they?
“Out there somewhere in the darkness, of course.”
A very interesting interview with Russian ex-diplomat Boris Bondarev: “Within a few months there will be nothing left to negotiate, and you will have 20 million refugees.”
Journalist/Author: Corry Hancke (@corryhancke)
Source: Gazet van Antwerpen (March 25, 2023)
The only Russian diplomat to resign in protest against the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 watches the European delays with sorrow. “Can you really only supply a few F16s by this summer, but not Taurus missiles?”
Boris Bondarev, a former member of Russia's permanent mission to the UN in Geneva, was ashamed of his country when it invaded Ukraine in 2022. He resigned in protest. He continued to live in Switzerland. From there, he now sees with dismay how European leaders hesitate to tackle Putin.
After major competitors were kept out, Putin won last Sunday's presidential election with 87.7 percent, the highest score he has ever achieved. There are many indications that fraud has occurred. Novaja Gazeta calculated that 22 million votes were 'fake'.
Why did Putin necessarily have to get such a high score?
“The president believes that he must score better in every election to impress the people and the world. But a score of 90 percent would look too much like a North Korean result. With 87.8 percent, even with a little after the decimal point, the regime wants to give the impression that the result is credible. It is important for Putin to show that his support base has not diminished now that his country is at war. Critics know that those figures are embellished, that he can no longer inspire people. But that doesn't matter. There is no one in Russia who disputes the result, there is no protest. And Putin knows it really worked.”
Would Putin have won without fraud?
“If the ballots had not been tampered, Putin would have obtained about 60 percent. He has controlled all media and propaganda for years. If there had been truly free elections in which every candidate had equal opportunities, Putin, I suspect, would have failed.”
Did the population vote for a continuation of the war?
“Suppose that almost 88 percent of the voters voted for Putin, does that mean that 88 percent want to go to the front? Does that 88 percent sponsor the Russian soldiers so that they are better equipped? Were those 88 percent ready to defend the Kremlin when Wagner boss Prigozhin organized his march on Moscow? No, there is not much enthusiasm for the war. There is a big gap between voting for Putin and approving his policies. This result says nothing about the support for the war.”
Did the president demand that he get such a high score?
“I don't think he orders anything. He has employees who know what is expected of them. Perhaps they asked him what score he would consider ideal, perhaps he replied that it had to be a convincing result. But I don't think he's concerned with such routines anymore. He is not interested in domestic politics. His focus is on the war, the confrontation with the West.”
Is the war against the West a way to stay in power, or does Putin really believe that he must restore the great Russian empire of the past?
“I think it's a mix. The war should inspire the Russians, whose daily lives are becoming increasingly difficult. They must realize that they live in a great country that scares everyone. The war also contributes to Putin’s glory. Going to war is easier and more glorious than pursuing careful policies that promote economic growth. The latter is now almost impossible. Putin changed nothing about the system, except at the beginning of his reign. It is built to suit a few, but it is not aimed at economic growth. To boost his declining popularity, Putin chose the traditional Russian path: war and expansion.”
Does Putin’s fate depend on the war?
"I think so. He invested a lot in this war, he explains everything through the lens of the war. If something goes wrong, he can't put it right anymore. He must win, otherwise he cannot explain why he dragged his country into a war.”
When did Putin win the war in his eyes?
“It is clear that he has the First and Second World Wars in mind. Putin wants to change the political map of the world because he does not want the US or other Western countries to have access to what he sees as his sphere of influence, especially the former Soviet countries, or perhaps even the former Warsaw Pact countries. He is convinced that the people of those countries will never revolt unless they receive support from the West. That's why he wants to weaken the West.”
“The Russian proposal for the Security Treaty of December 2021 is important. It states that the US and other NATO countries must promise not to interfere in Russia's domestic policy. That part was crucial for Russia, not the expansion of NATO.”
“But, if the war does not go according to plan, Putin may adjust his demands and settle for Crimea and the occupied territories. He must be able to annex at least one Ukrainian village so that he can show victory at home. Whether he can convince with that is another question.”
Some politicians in Europe are suggesting that there should be negotiations and that Putin should be given a trophy that will allow him to go home without losing face.
“How did things go in 1939 or 1941? As the German Wehrmacht approached, did Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt consider giving Hitler something to stop his advance? (Stalin made a pact with Hitler in 1939, he only came to the defense in 1941, after Germany attacked Russia, ed.) So, it doesn't work that way. You cannot calm an aggressor by granting him something. As a result, his appetite only grows. I don't understand why Western politicians are inclined to that idea. They play the role of the loser, the victim. Why? Germany has still not been attacked, but the country behaves as if it were already half occupied.”
Is French President Emmanuel Macron's strategy better? He does not rule out sending troops to Ukraine.
"Yes. And not just the French, but the Europeans and Americans should have said that from the beginning of the invasion. Maybe even before that when Russia brought more and more troops to the border of Ukraine.”
How could NATO threaten troops? Ukraine is not part of the alliance.
"And then? Switzerland is also not a member of NATO. What will you do if Russia invades Switzerland or drops nuclear bombs on it? Isn't that a threat to you? Threats do not take NATO rules into account, threats are determined geographically, economically, and politically.”
Important state leaders in Europe have domestic problems and elections they want to win. Isn't that important?
“Is that new? Kennedy also had domestic problems in 1962, but when the Russians wanted to install missiles in Cuba, he threatened to attack Russia. Every country has its own domestic issues, but if you allow a neighboring country to lose a war or a major power to change the rules, you will have even more problems at home. Everything is connected, isolationism is no longer of this day.”
Some fear that Putin will acquire nuclear weapons.
“Perhaps Putin also fears a nuclear attack. Maybe he doesn't want to spend days in a bunker only to be strangled by someone who survived the nuclear attack. Why don't they use language that Putin understands? Make it clear to him that he is not the only one who can deploy a nuclear weapon.”
“Macron finally understands that. Now, in the third year of the war, he finally sees that you must address Putin in his own language. The language of the strongest. An aggressor who has started a war must realize that there may be retaliation. Putin should not rest easy.
He now feels quite confident: his army is making progress; Ukraine has a lot of problems. Most likely he will announce a new mobilization to throw a large supply of fresh soldiers into the battle. Five hundred thousand troops will cut through the Ukrainian lines. In the meantime, some European leaders are still thinking about whether they should grant Putin something. Within months there will be nothing left to discuss, and you will have 20 million refugees. Do not forget that."
"Allow me. Can you only supply some F16s by this summer, not Taurus missiles? 31 Abrahams and 96 Leopard tanks, is that all? This is not a war against the Iraqi insurgents or the Taliban, this is an old-fashioned European war. The Ukrainians defend their country very well. If there is one people in Europe who can confront the Russians, it is the Ukrainians. But they need more sustained, consistent support or they are doomed.”
“I don't really understand what you want. You say that Putin should not win the war and Ukraine should not lose the war. That is ridiculous. This is not a win-win war. If Putin is in power, he will go for a win-lose war. If you don't want to win, that means you're willing to lose. You have no regard for your own interests. I don't think that one-sided diplomacy is a good idea.”
Are you angry?
“Yes, even more. I am disappointed that so many Western politicians are so short-sighted.”
Now about Russia itself. After the death of Alexei Navalny, many people came to his funeral. The opposition's campaign on election day was also successful. What should happen next?
“I think the protest will stop. I don't think the Russian opposition knows what it wants, it has no strategic vision. She wants Putin to go and a democracy to be installed. But the leaders of the opposition are not even able to consult with each other. There is no organization representing the Russian opposition and its members are unwilling to organize elections to establish a representative committee.
Maybe it's our Russian nature. We are not very good at democratic government because we have never learned to do so. Our historical traditions are much more authoritarian. Maybe the younger generations will do better.”
Everyone in the opposition supported the action on election day. Can Navalny's death unite them?
“That action was a good idea. It wasn't difficult to get everyone on board. But that was a one-time tactical decision, not a strategy. It's about how you see the road to democracy. Can Navalny's widow bring the opposition together? Don't know. Remember that Navalny and his team were not very popular with the other opposition groups. It will take a lot of effort to bring everyone together. Yulia Navalnaya has not come up with a plan so far either. When you talk to European leaders, you must come up with a proposal, say what you expect from the EU to oust Putin from power.”
The soldiers' wives or the women who stand up for the interests of political prisoners in Russia are brave. Can they set something in motion?
“I fear it is more dangerous for them now than before the elections. Putin is completely free and can promise the people who voted for him that he will rid society of those 'women who are victims of American propaganda'. I suspect the women will be arrested.”
“It is a widespread protest, but it is powerless. Most are unwilling to act in a way that puts them at risk. Placing flowers at Navalny's grave will not change the world. I fear that peaceful protest is no longer an option. But it is characteristic of the Russian opposition, which from the beginning has wanted to act within the possibilities of the law. That's not going to work.”
Do you see the future bleakly?
“You have to look for the lighter shadows in the dark.”
Where are they?
“Out there somewhere in the darkness, of course.”
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CORRECTION ❗️
Source is De Standaard, Belgian Newspaper, and publishing date 25/03/2024.
Source is De Standaard, Belgian Newspaper, and publishing date 25/03/2024.
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