I'm a firm believer that life is very much about perspective. A 🧵 about photography, despite the charts about housing, interest rates and treasuries. 1/5
Perspective involves field of view, depth of view, angle of view, proper exposure to the available light, focal length, focal point, speed of process, framing, & right place at the right time. When you practice anything enough, you start to see patterns in the artwork. 2/5
This can build foresight to plan, and hindsight to recognize what went wrong. Practice is perfection as they say. 3/5
St. Francis of Assisi once said, "Work with your hands and you're a laborer, with your hands and head, you're a craftsman, but work with your hands, head and heart, and you're an artist."
The artists of the world make art. It's just what they do. 4/5
And so the cycle repeats, when one piece of art is finished, the next one begins. Even if requires new inspiration. When you find your next inspiration, make something even more beautiful than the last one.🖖
🎬 Fin 5/5
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A 🧵as I've seen a few posts lately about War and home prices. Which I find unhealthy. So here's a PSA about home prices and our fellow Americans. 1/7 The GFC literally occurred while the US was at war. 2007-2011 saw the heaviest US casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan.
2/7 Home prices and real estate crashed in 1990 While the US was engaged in the Gulf War in Kuwait. And didn't recover until postwar. US non combatant casualties were greater than combatant casualties.
3/7 Home prices crashed from 1968-1970 which were also the peak years of US soldiers being in Vietnam. 56k+ Americans were KIA and thousands more POW/MIA, some never made it home. Those that did were often spit at and derided.
We can now add FHA delinquency to this list. Here's just delinquency due to "unemployed". A 🧵and thanks to @NeelyTamminga and @m3_melody for having piqued my interest in this data set. 1/6
Got Jobs?
When we remove the newly created "due to national emergency category", we've actually set a new record for "New 90+ day delinquencies". (guess why that category existed?) 2/6
And before anyone says "Bailout", allow the Congressional Budget Office to remind you, that you the taxpayer have already guaranteed that these lenders and MBS buyers will be made whole in the event of default. That won't however, do anything to stop these homes from coming to market under duress as it doesn't do anything for the borrower but let them buy with as little as 3.5% down payment. @GRomePow 3/6
🧵 If you missed the spaces yesterday, please give it a listen. We discussed this divergence when New homes for sale outpace new home sales. Plus here's a thread with some charts we didn't get to drop. And thanks to everyone who listened. 1/6
First, here's what that divergence looks like for this cycle. But measured as a percentage of the cycle's Peak month of sales. From the Indexed to 1/1/63 FRED chart in post 1. 2/6
And for comparison, here's the current divergence compared to everyone's favorite (GFC). While the aggregate # of new homes for sale may be less, this cycle's divergence is larger thus far. 3/6
"Home Price Declines are because builders are building smaller homes!"
Here's the median and average sq ft of new houses sold going back 4 years. Smaller, yes. Let's put some perspective on the situation with a 🧵: 1/5
This beauty is the exact Median sq footage in 2020. 2/5
This is the exact Median as of end of Q4. Not what you were thinking? How about Average size 3/5
Hi Lance. Sharing for visibility for Lance's 🧵, and a 🧵on why Data type matters. Also JPM completely missed. 1st, residential Construction employment has shed 3%. 1/6