Thread by @delfoo

We have data on the Ru weekly consumption of gasoline for March, it rose by 13 000 tons per day in March to 794 000 tons a week and currently Ru oil firms are supplying more to the market than they are producing with 13-19 of Mar supply of 779 400 tons.

kommersant.ru/doc/6596233

The Russian oil companies are covering the deficit via an accumulated pool of 1,9 million tons of gasoline as of March 22nd. However a smaller part of that is high octane gasoline due its production being impacted for a while now.

The repairs of Lukoil's Nizhny Novgorod facility and its broken Western parts now are said to take not a few months but from several months to 2 and a half years. We also know the daily refining capacity of Ryazan and Syzran, 35 000 and 17 000 tons.

Based on Reuters assessment Russia's oil refining capacity due to emergency outages is down 13%. Preliminary Russian data suggested that refining for 2024 by March 20th decreased 7%. Due to available reserves shortages were avoided.

However it remains to be seen how Russia will handle April if attacks and breakdowns continue. And this is also impacted by Russian Railways' ability to ship gasoline within Russia which is 4 days slower than when shipping to export.

The country is operating 180 000 tank railway cars to move oil and petroleum products but since 2022 there's a shortage due to a high rate of write offs. 65 000 tank railway cars have been written off with just 16 000 new ones.

Also with the higher price of fuels on the wholesale market gas stations are close to losing money with the recent increases of 15% increases in March 2024 alone as the country nears the Spring refinery maintenance period.