(((Charles Fishman))) 💧 Profile picture
Mar 29, 2024 20 tweets 5 min read Read on X
On the bridge of the container ship Dali, 4 minutes from disaster, there's one critical moment we haven't heard about yet.

The very moment the ship lost power the 1st time.

What did the pilot do, right then?

His first thought, apparently, was safety — the bridge looming ahead.

—>

⤵️ NTSB photo of the bridge of the Dali...Image
2/ The 1st 'event' leading up to the collision that the NTSB notes in its timeline is 1:24:59—when alarms on the bridge indicate power failure.

The ship was without electricity, engine power, lights, navigation, radio.

Dali was dark, literally & in terms of communications.

—>
3/ The first thing the pilot did — apparently within the first 30 to 60 seconds of the ship going dark — was take out his cell phone and call harbor pilot dispatch.

He told his dispatcher: We've lost power, close the bridge. Close the bridge.

—>
4/ This is the critical moment. The airline pilot / surgeon moment.

At the first moment disaster starts to unfold, what do you do?

In this case, with Francis Scott Key Bridge looming in the dark just a few ship lengths ahead through the bridge windows, he sounded the alarm. Image
5/ The pilot knew he had no radio. He didn't wait to see what would happen in the next 30 seconds. Would the engine room get power back? What systems would come online as the backup power kicked in?

He pulled his cell phone, he called dispatch, he said: Close the bridge.

—>
6/ I know this from my own reporting, from someone familiar with the pilot's official written account.

This one moment—a minute before the next set of actions is recorded—hasn't been reported elsewhere.

So the events unfolded like this...

—>
7/ ...
1:24:59 Alarms on bridge, power fails on ship 1st time

~1:25:30 Pilot calls pilot dispatch, says ship may hit the bridge, close the bridge

1:26:39 Maryland Transportation Dept records incoming call from pilot dispatch, advising to urgently close the bridge

—>
8/ ...

1:27:25 MDTA duty officer radios two units stationed at either end of the bridge, telling them to close the bridge.

1:29:00 to 1:29:33 'Black box' recorder on the ship records the sounds of the Dali crashing into the bridge.

—> Image
9/ From the moment of the power failure to the moment units were alerted to close the bridge, 156 seconds elapsed.

1:24:59 am to 1:27:25 am.

2 minutes, 26 seconds—from first sign of trouble to the bridge being closed.

That's truly astonishing. That first call saved lives.
—>
10/ The pilot hasn't been publicly identified yet. We don't know his age, his years on the water, all his actions.

But what happened at that moment—1:24:59—was years of experience kicking in instantly. First priority: Bridge is close, we could hit it, close the bridge.

—>
11/ The pilot needed to get power back on the ship. He needed to talk to engine room, crew on the bridge & around the ship, move fast to halt or divert the ship.

NTSB transcript says he did do those things.

But first, within seconds, he requested the bridge be closed.

—>
12/ That's what he should have done.

Might have been unnecessary, if ship's engines came back on, if emergency measures to change course worked.

He didn't hesitate.

It's that moment that shows experience, competence, and the confidence that comes from those things.

—>
13/ We don't know most of what we need to about this accident.

Why did the engines on a ship, just leaving port, fail completely?

Was the ship in the right position before that failure?

—> Image
14/ Did the pilot, the captain, the crew, the engine room staff — do what they should have before the ship lost power, and in the minutes after?

But we do know one thing:

—>
15/ At the moment the power failed, at the moment of crisis, the pilot had the preparation, the training, and the presence of mind to do the most important thing first.

Pull out his cell phone & ask that the bridge be closed.

—>
16/ That's why no cars or trucks were traveling across the bridge when it fell—why no people were traveling across the bridge when it fell.

How critical was the pilot's presence of mind?

—>
17/ It's 90 seconds from the moment the MDTA duty officer alerts units on the bridge to close it, until the ship's 'black box' starts recording sounds of Dali crashing into the bridge.

90 seconds.

If the pilot had done one thing before calling for the bridge to be closed…

—>
18/ If the pilot had done one other thing first — of the dozen he urgently needed to do at the moment of crisis — people would have died.

We'll know more in the weeks to come. But I don't think that choice will turn out to be just luck.
19/ …Great photos on the tweets in this thread from the Washington Post (@washingtonpost), whose photo journalists have gotten images that really capture the scale of the ship, the bridge, the collision, the human toll.

Full photo gallery here...⤵️

washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/inter…
20/ The NTSB's timeline of the events leading up to the container ship Dali hitting the Francis Scott Key Bridge is collected in five tweets @NTSB_Newsroom — 3rd of those 5 linked below, where the critical events begin..

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More from @cfishman

Apr 7
CNBC anchor & reporter Becky Quick opens a key interview this morning:

'When you've got a crisis like this...'

And you have to stop and say, Crisis. Crisis? What's the 'crisis'?

• Recession coming on fast
• Layoffs beginning
• Inflation likely coming back

—>
2/ Also...

• Economic partners everywhere furious & looking to work with others
• Global economy fragile, nation by nation, now at risk of global recession

That is a crisis. But we created it for ourselves and for everyone else.

In fact, one person alone created it.

—>
3/ Donald Trump inherited a historically strong US economy.

Inflation down dramatically & still falling (albeit slowly)

Economic growth strong many years in a row — and stronger than any other nation in the world

Americans income rising faster than inflation

—>
Read 21 tweets
Apr 3
Could Trump's tariffs spark a US factory & manufacturing renaissance?

Let's say they do.

Here's the problem, even if we double the number of factories the US has now. Even if we—somehow—start making microwave ovens and pleated-front chinos and pillow cases in the US again.

—>
2/ There won't be many jobs.

Factory automation for routine, repetitive manufacturing is very far along.

It's so widespread that there's a phrase in the manufacturing world:

'Lights-out factories.'

…Factories with so few people, they keep the lights off.

—>
3/ Machines don't need lights. So many big companies—including consumer products companies like Unilever, Procter & Gamble, Foxconn—run factories with just a scattering of staff who monitor the machines.

Like in a quiet office, the lights only come on when a person walks in.

—>
Read 12 tweets
Apr 3
There is a critical fraud at the heart of the Trump tariffs.

They are not reciprocal tariffs.

The tariffs are *not* based on the tariffs each nation imposes on us.

They are calculated using each nation's trade deficit with the US.

That's totally different.

List below.

—> Image
2/ Switzerland doesn't have a 61% tariff on US goods.

The EU doesn't have a 39% tariff on US goods.

Vietnam—Vietnam!—doesn't have a 90% tariff on goods from the US.

Those numbers aren't 'barriers' to US goods. It's *exactly the opposite.*

It's how much stuff they sell us.
—>
3/ Percentages in the White House list of 'tariffs charged to the US' represent the trade imbalance between the US & that country.

We buy 90% more stuff from Vietnam than they buy from us.

We buy 39% more from the EU than they buy from us.

Huge US tariffs don't fix that.

—>
Read 17 tweets
Apr 2
Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.

It's not 1893. It's not 1933.

We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.

Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.

—>
2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.

But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.

—>
3/ We are 26% of the global market. But that means 74% of the global market is out there without us.

Including all of the EU, whose unified economy is almost the size of the US, with similar consumers. And the Chinese economy.

The world will be sad to see us go...

—>
Read 8 tweets
Mar 28, 2024
Sam Bankman Fried sentenced to 25 years in federal prison for the FTX crypto fraud.

Below from ⁦@WSJ⁩ — a great chart comparing him to other major white collar criminals.

SBF gets a decade more than Jeff Skilling from Enron. Twice as long as Elizabeth Holmes. Image
2/ Here's the WSJ account of this morning's sentencing hearing.

US Dist Judge Lewis Kaplan said he thought SBF was a risk to commit future fraud if freed; didn't seem to tell the truth on the stand; and lacked 'any real remorse.'

—>

(Open free link)
wsj.com/finance/curren…
3/ Sentencings aren't the art of comparative justice.

But I'm not sure SBF's crimes are worse than Skilling at Enron or Holmes at Theranos.

Skilling has been free since Feb 2019.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 27, 2024
Again, a moment to pause & appreciate the cool professionalism of those in & around the Key Bridge at 1:24 am Tuesday.

Ship’s pilot radios in that ship has lost steerage & will hit bridge.

Someone (maritime control?) transmits urgent alert to Maryland/Balt police dispatch…

—>
2/ Police dispatched with just a few crisp phrases—ship has lost steering, close the bridge to traffic—and race to do just that.

No time for confusion. No time for … ‘What do you mean, close the bridge? Who says?’

4 minutes, alert to collapse.

Bridge successfully closed…

—>
3/ That’s amazing. Again, a system worked—a government system.

All those people just ordinary frontline workers in anonymous, sometimes invisible jobs.

Maritime radio operators. Police/fire dispatchers. Bridge police & state police.

All working 11p to 7a o’night shift.

—>
Read 9 tweets

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