Step 2: Calibrate your eyes to quickly recognize setups (here's a cheat sheet)👇👇👇
Step 3: Familiarise yourself with all the different variations
Growth Stock HTF
- “classic” HTF showing consistent strength riding MAs up (20-30% per leg)
- Build ranges at recent highs
- Persistent volume
- Initial move triggered by catalyst like EP
HTF below MA
- Unlike Classic HTF, flag drifts down below the MA. Longs neglect, shorts anticipate
- On breakout through MA/failure of the breakdown shorts cover, weak hands chase to get back in
- Occur later in the swing cycle after a few legs where more sellers lock in gains
Re-confirmation HTF
- Leg2 flag that overlaps with Leg1 flag
- Occur in 2 places 1. Few legs up where stock looks “extended” (coinciding with a weak general market/correction, but this stock shows RS)
2. shortly after the second leg up, where the breakout retests and some more supply is being digested before continuation
Arch HTF
“choppy” stocks that trend in channels
less linear, still showing constant accumulation, but “choppy” with overlapping candles vs “straight up”
These stocks tend to trend in channels, but also contract or form clean trendlines for breakout
Failed BO HTF
- Breakdown failures (very powerful)
- Form bearish double tops or head and shoulders patterns
- Expectation breaker, BREAKOUT! Shorts rush to cover, weak hands try to buy back the stock.
- Occure on "extended" stocks
Failed BD/MAbounce/MR/HigerLow/RangeBreak Setup
- Another failed BD setup
- Failed HTF setup but combines Mean Reversion
- Extended below shorter timeframe like 10ma
- Must still be making clear higher lows on longer timeframe
6/5 Star HTF
- Just your classic HTF which is very geometrically symmetrical or “clean”
- Provides “obvious” breakout ranges
Short Base HTF
- Very powerful stocks that make BIG moves (50-100%)
- “classic” HTF but on the hourly timeframe
- So powerful that they ride above the 10ma, then consolidate for around 1 week, touch the 10ma and go again
POS High tight Flag
- Shitcos that go late in the swing cycle (generally 30-50%+ moves)
- Take note of the persistent volume that comes in after the initial big move (this is key!)
- You will see alot of big moves out of biotechs where volume seemingly disappears (avoid)
General Note
- I've only scratched the suface here b/c there so much more nuance
- Context is extreemly important
- e.g If you have a failed breakdown flag, vs a "classic" HTF, the classic one is probably higher probability
- Another important nuance is that how setups show up across time ie one variation might be built ontop of another one (eg continuation)
- You always want to pick the strongest stocks available at any time
- Sectors, themes & catalysts boost setup ratings
- A+ setup in the "Chop" phase might not be a C grade setup in the 'straight up' phase with a strong sector or catalyst
- etc etc etc these are the ones that I can think off of the top of my head right now.
- I'm sure there're traders that can name more caveates
- Im sure there are traders who can name more setup variations!
👇👇👇 please do!
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Expected Value (EV) is a concept internalized and engrained in my process.
Some of the concepts he brushes over in the beginning (Risk Instrument/Environment, Reward Instrument, Probability Measurement/Lifecycle) are huge and take a few cycles, maybe more, to really fully appreciate.
My favorite way to use this concept is just to collect the best opportunities for the week. Then assume I take equal positions on all, would I have made money overall? Is it currently a positive EV market?
Step 2 is to check if I'm in sync with the market. Were the best names in my focus list? If they weren't, then EV would be discounted, so I need to reverse engineer those stocks to try and calibrate my stock selection with the market.
When these 2 factors (EV of best opportunities & my own stock selection) are in sync, then I will start getting aggressive in new positions!
There are many nuances. Here are just a few:
- What entry tactic would result in the highest EV, if any? The tactics should be calibrated
- Are stocks making 20+% moves in 3-5 days? 20 because say you have a 3% stop and 3 R, then you screw up the sell
- Are there any common sectors among the list? Do you have a proliferation of setups in similar sectors
- Are there any technical themes (like undercut and rallys, pullback buys, buying into strength, bull flags, EPs, extended continuation setups, sht co small caps, Mega caps etc etc)
- Do you have a sense of the tempo of the market (2-3 day waves starting with leaders breaking out)
- Where are we in the cycle? after 4 months of chop into earnings season? or 3 months into an extended rally?
Two examples of people who understand the “tempto” I mention
"Look left" is common advice for day traders. What about Swing traders?
Here’s my varying perception + nuances + practical application
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Determine Character by: 1. Categories: What timeframe the stock offer linear moves 2. Earnings Character: How the Stock behaves during/between Earnings Releases
Simple but incredibly powerful
Part 1: Categories: 1. Random chop:
- This is most stocks out the ~10k stock universe
- They go sideways or downward over time
- Have up/down candles in no predictable patterns
Have you ever looked at a stock & wondered "is this extended? or just very strong?"
Understanding price action proportionality will help you answer this question
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Every flag has a pole and base, delineated by frontside/backside
Proportionality refers to the behavior of price/volume of frontside vs the backside and assessing whether or not the stock is ready for another leg up
Nuance:
- Front/Backside refers to periods before/after a clear top in price
- This area is defined by the price around a short entry (ORL, intraday range break, VWAP, previous highs)
- The larger the frontside move, the more significance this price holds
Here are Q1 2024 gappers focusing on: 1. Theme 2. History of chart 3. Neglect 4. Swing Cycle
Sequential to get a feel for sentiment over time!
NVDA 2024-01-08
- Every bubble starts from a grain of truth. AI is going to change the world and NVDA has the fundamentals to prove it
- This is not an EP, but this breakout started this sub-cycle (see my post on super/swing/sub cycles).
The Momentum Stock Archetype
If you are a swing trader, the archetype for a stock that we trade:
1. Starts with an episodic pivot (by definition). If it holds and follows through, that’s First confirmation
2. Then the stock goes sideways for a flag. If the stock holds and flags, that Second confirmation
3. The breakout is the third confirmation (with more confirmation from followthrough etc etc)
At step 1, the EP, that’s where the positioning is most off balance and people rush to get in.
Every leg up from there, the stock supply/demand reaches more of an equilibrium and requires more skill/confirmation to trade.
If you have had a “don’t trade” market for a while, the positioning might be even more off balance. The reaction can sometimes be more powerful. This is because the best stocks need weeks and months to digest their big moves before continuing (maybe its a growth stock with real growth but price got ahead of fundamentals and we need a few quaters for fundamentals to catch up and confirm momentum was valid).
Pull up the best movers with earnings on the chart. You will see that most leaders make big moves, consolidate for a season or two, then make a new leg (NVDA SMCI). Only a select few make big moves season after season after season TSLA during covid and ANF recently come to mind. And majority go nowhere.
I think most experienced traders have been through a season where they wait to see the best EPs move with a few days follow through, then take the ones that come after but they miss the best ones only to vow to take all EPs they come across without confirmation next season!
The image from the above post is from a study of George Soros, Stan Druckenmillers Mentor. This Sums up the archetype pretty well
We want “Straight Up” periods b/c that's when we get very aggressive characterized by:
- b/o that go 25%+ in 2-3 days
- “Clean” action through buy points ie slicing through resistance & no retest of buy points
Anticipation, oversizing & chasing are rewarded in these 2-3 wks