Thread by @HamidRezaAz

#Israel targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus, marking a significant escalation in tensions. The attack resulted in the death of Brig. Gen.Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of the Quds Force, and his deputy.

Some initial thoughts:

1- This attack is viewed by some in Iran as a declaration of war by #Israel against #Iran. It represents a shift from previous engagements, directly hitting Iranian soil represented by its consulate in Syria - as opposed to targeting IRGC officers in Syrian sites.

2- In fact, the rules of engagement btwn IR and Israel has been changing. In earlier stages, Israel would refrain from targeting IRGC officers - only proxies & arms shipments. Since the Gaza war, a shift was already there to target high ranking Iranian commanders

3- Some sources claim the attack was a response to an assault on an Israeli ship last night at the port of Eilat, attributed to Iraqi militias. This suggests another new rule of engagement by Israel: direct retaliation against Iran for any attacks by its proxies.

4- The strike on the consulate and the killing of high-ranking officials like Zahedi is also seen as a message to both Iran and Assad's regime in #Syria: Israel's capability and willingness to escalate its response to the presence of Iranian forces in Syria.

5- Iran faces a critical decision in responding. A failure to react could significantly diminish its standing among the resistance axis and expose its forces and commanders to further attacks. However, any response risks broadening the conflict.

6- Iran would partly justify the lack of response to prior attacks to the fact that the targets were "Syrian" & Damascus had no intention to respond. Now, the justification doesn't work, as a purely Iranian target has been hit.

7- Obviously, this time Iran cannot target Erbil, etc, and claim that it has taken the revenge. To save its credibility, Iran feels the need for a direct response. But how and where it would be, is the main question!

8- Other important questions to consider: Was the US aware of the Israeli plan for the attack, as some claim it was? How will Russia react?