Thread by @bidetmarxman

On Monday, Israeli fighter jets bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus killing over a dozen people in an outrageous act of provocation against both Iran and Syria.

It is clear that Israel is intent on instigating a direct confrontation with Iran.

What’s the goal? 🧵

While this attack represents a blatant provocation, it is not without precedent by western powers. Those old enough might recall a similarly atrocious act by the US in the 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.

Iran's increasingly close alignment with Russia and China over the past few years is something Israeli and American foreign policy experts have feared since Brzezinski's warning in 1997.

The emergence of a virtually ‘un-sanctionable’ Russia has triggered alarm bells in the west that the once distant nightmare scenario of an aligned Iran-Russia-China is now a geopolitical reality.

There’s been a dawning horror amongst the American foreign policy blob of the threat this alignment presents to American hegemony. And one of the results of this panic has been a series of provocations against the current most vulnerable member of the triad.

This current streak of provocations against Iran arguably began with the US assassination of Soleimani in 2020, followed by a Color Revolution attempt in 2022, the Jan 2024 attack in Kerman by "ISIS-K", and yesterday's airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

What’s the purpose of all these provocations?

The ultimate goal may be to bait Iran into an overreaction, which can then be used to paint them as a pariah and increase the political cost for China and Russia to come to their aid amidst further escalations.

It’s also possible the US hopes for a repeat of the global embarrassment that followed the downing of a civilian airliner by an IRGC missile in 2020 (which itself may have been the result of a hack).

https://twitter.com/bidetmarxman/status/1496081401133043713

Whatever the case, Iran must—and will— respond to this most recent provocation. But if prior confrontations are any guide, their response will seem measured, especially relative to these blatant attempts at escalation.

Iran may even decide to go over Israel's head and retaliate directly against US forces in the region. By doing so, Iran would signal to the world that they recognize the one in charge while ensuring the costs of this proxy strategy are felt more keenly.

Throughout the NATO proxy war in Ukraine, Western analysts consistently over-estimated the precarity of the Russian position, and thus their analysis was distorted toward assumptions of Russian incapacity over restraint.

It appears they’re making the same mistake again.

Keen observers recognized early on that Russia’s calculated, purposeful, and *patient* approach was the best strategy against a flailing and increasingly desperate west.

Those in a winning position need only stay the course; those who’re losing can only hope to goad them from it

In truth, if western hegemony is to survive another decade, it must reassert itself and subordinate the vanguard of the new world that is emerging, whilst the vanguard must merely continue on their current path.

Few countries understand this better than Iran.