THREAD🧵: With so many leadership changes and policy u-turns, it is hard to keep track of the promises on which the Conservatives were elected to gov't in 2019.
I have had a detailed look back at their 2019 manifesto. ~AA 1/
I have had a detailed look back at their 2019 manifesto. ~AA 1/
It's hard for voters to have a clear line of accountability, with weekly "rebrands", "resets", and "relaunches".
"The mandate my party earned in 2019 is not the sole property of one individual. The heart of that mandate is our manifesto," Sunak said on his first speech as PM. 2/
"The mandate my party earned in 2019 is not the sole property of one individual. The heart of that mandate is our manifesto," Sunak said on his first speech as PM. 2/
THE PLEDGE: "Debt will be lower at the end of the Parliament."
THE OUTCOME: Debt will, in fact, be higher by any measure and even excluding pandemic borrowing. /3
THE OUTCOME: Debt will, in fact, be higher by any measure and even excluding pandemic borrowing. /3
THE PLEDGE: "6,000 more GPs".
THE OUTCOME: Looking at full time equivalent, GPs increased by under 2,000, but only if you count trainees, which the RCGP advises against. Looking at fully qualified GPs, the number has actually gone DOWN by over 800. [] /4 fullfact.org/health/gp-work…
THE OUTCOME: Looking at full time equivalent, GPs increased by under 2,000, but only if you count trainees, which the RCGP advises against. Looking at fully qualified GPs, the number has actually gone DOWN by over 800. [] /4 fullfact.org/health/gp-work…
THE PLEDGE: "We will build 40 new hospitals."
THE OUTCOME: The Health Sec admitted in 2023 that this will not happen. In 33 of the projects being 'counted' no work has actually begun. The NAO reports that even by the "broad definition" used by gov't the target will be missed. 5/
THE OUTCOME: The Health Sec admitted in 2023 that this will not happen. In 33 of the projects being 'counted' no work has actually begun. The NAO reports that even by the "broad definition" used by gov't the target will be missed. 5/
THE PLEDGE: To seek "cross-party consensus" on a long term solution to social care.
THE OUTCOME: Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Promises and proposals not taken forward. Hypothicated NI rise (which Sunak in 2022 called "the only responsible solution") reversed by Hunt in 2023. ~AA 6/
THE OUTCOME: Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Promises and proposals not taken forward. Hypothicated NI rise (which Sunak in 2022 called "the only responsible solution") reversed by Hunt in 2023. ~AA 6/
THE PLEDGE: "We will invest in arts, music and sport."
THE OUTCOME: Participation in such programmes down by 40%. Funding to arts teaching cut by half. Creative HE coourse funding down by half. 60% of music hubs closed. Sport funding cut by a quarter. 7/
THE OUTCOME: Participation in such programmes down by 40%. Funding to arts teaching cut by half. Creative HE coourse funding down by half. 60% of music hubs closed. Sport funding cut by a quarter. 7/
THE PLEDGE: "We will conduct a comprehensive review on how to fix this issue."
THE OUTCOME: After a review that took four years, Ombudsman recommended inadequate Level 6 compensation (£1k-£3k). Gov't says it needs time to consider the report. Not a penny has been paid. ~AA 8/
THE OUTCOME: After a review that took four years, Ombudsman recommended inadequate Level 6 compensation (£1k-£3k). Gov't says it needs time to consider the report. Not a penny has been paid. ~AA 8/
THE PLEDGE: "We will reduce the number of reassessments a disabled person must go through."
THE OUTCOME: In fact, gov't wants to scrap capability assessments altogether - replacing them with a system which even more stringent and cuts support. [] 9/ ifs.org.uk/publications/e…
THE OUTCOME: In fact, gov't wants to scrap capability assessments altogether - replacing them with a system which even more stringent and cuts support. [] 9/ ifs.org.uk/publications/e…
THE PLEDGE: 10k more prison places, tougher sentencing, less early release.
THE OUTCOME: NAO says programme delivered 206 places. Gov't doubled down promising 20k new places by 2027, later admitted it will miss this. Prisons are 99.7% full. So there are mass early releases. 10/
THE OUTCOME: NAO says programme delivered 206 places. Gov't doubled down promising 20k new places by 2027, later admitted it will miss this. Prisons are 99.7% full. So there are mass early releases. 10/
THE PLEDGE: "There will be fewer lower-skilled migrants and overall numbers will come down."
THE OUTCOME: Net migration numbers are roughly four times what they were in 2019. Gov't says that the cause is woke judges stopping it from sending 300 asylum seekers to Rwanda. 11/
THE OUTCOME: Net migration numbers are roughly four times what they were in 2019. Gov't says that the cause is woke judges stopping it from sending 300 asylum seekers to Rwanda. 11/
THE PLEDGE: "A key part of our plan to level up the UK's cities and regions is to connect them."
THE OUTCOME: Second leg of HS2 cancelled. TransPennine services reduced. Punctuality down. Journey numbers not back to pre-pandemic levels. 12/
THE OUTCOME: Second leg of HS2 cancelled. TransPennine services reduced. Punctuality down. Journey numbers not back to pre-pandemic levels. 12/
THE PLEDGE: "We intend to bring full fibre and gigabit- capable broadband to every home and business across the UK by 2025."
THE OUTCOME: Target was revised in 2020 to 85% by 2025. In 2022 the target revised to 2030. Current figures are 60% and 80%. [] 13/ commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-brief…
THE OUTCOME: Target was revised in 2020 to 85% by 2025. In 2022 the target revised to 2030. Current figures are 60% and 80%. [] 13/ commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-brief…
THE PLEDGE: A ban on new leasehold homes and abolishing no fault evictions.
THE OUTCOME: Legislation meant to come in three years ago has still not been published, but both pledges are thought to have been abandoned after backbencher pressure. 14/
THE OUTCOME: Legislation meant to come in three years ago has still not been published, but both pledges are thought to have been abandoned after backbencher pressure. 14/
THE PLEDGE: "300,000 homes a year by the mid-2020s."
THE OUTCOME: Annual number of net additional dwellings is lower to what it was in 2019. Bobbing along at about 75% of the target currently. Gov't likely to achieve 1m in this Parly, however, since that is only 200k a year. 15/
THE OUTCOME: Annual number of net additional dwellings is lower to what it was in 2019. Bobbing along at about 75% of the target currently. Gov't likely to achieve 1m in this Parly, however, since that is only 200k a year. 15/
THE PLEDGE: "We are committed to reducing [Brexit] costs to small businesses."
THE OUTCOME: The precise opposite. Brexit affected SMEs disproportionately. 90% say it's a drag on finances, 80% report higher costs. And they're about to be clobbered again by new import costs. 16/
THE OUTCOME: The precise opposite. Brexit affected SMEs disproportionately. 90% say it's a drag on finances, 80% report higher costs. And they're about to be clobbered again by new import costs. 16/
THE PLEDGE: To tackle tax fraud, create a single beefed-up unit, prosecute eggregious examples.
THE OUTCOME: No such unit created (or mentioned since). Not a single firm has been charged under the new legislation. Only 2% of Covid fraud had been clawed back at last report. 17/
THE OUTCOME: No such unit created (or mentioned since). Not a single firm has been charged under the new legislation. Only 2% of Covid fraud had been clawed back at last report. 17/
THE PLEDGE: "To maintain and strengthen our global position in higher education."
THE OUTCOME: EU students down more than half. Student visas down 33%. Post-graduate enrollments down 40%. Several unis are looking at reducing places for loss-making UK students to survive. 18/
THE OUTCOME: EU students down more than half. Student visas down 33%. Post-graduate enrollments down 40%. Several unis are looking at reducing places for loss-making UK students to survive. 18/
THE PLEDGE: "We will encourage flexible working and consult on making it the default."
THE OUTCOME: PM attacking hybrid working. Jacob Rees-Mogg going around Whitehall pinning absence slips. Government forbidding councils from trialing different models. 19/
THE OUTCOME: PM attacking hybrid working. Jacob Rees-Mogg going around Whitehall pinning absence slips. Government forbidding councils from trialing different models. 19/
THE PLEDGE: "The fastest ever increase in domestic public R&D spending" to a target of 2.4%.
THE OUTCOME: Gov't was predicted to fall short, but ended up smashing its target, by <checks notes> changing how it's calculated, which added c40% overnight (and retrospectively).👀😂20/
THE OUTCOME: Gov't was predicted to fall short, but ended up smashing its target, by <checks notes> changing how it's calculated, which added c40% overnight (and retrospectively).👀😂20/
THE PLEDGE: "We will guarantee the current [pre-Brexit] annual budget to farmers."
THE OUTCOME: Money budgeted but not spent, with farms losing up to 50% of their subsidies. Gov't has slid 30 points in the polls in rural areas. Tractors are parked outside Westminster. 21/
THE OUTCOME: Money budgeted but not spent, with farms losing up to 50% of their subsidies. Gov't has slid 30 points in the polls in rural areas. Tractors are parked outside Westminster. 21/
THE PLEDGE: To introduce an animal welfare bill that would do all sorts of lovely things.
THE OUTCOME: The bill was drafted and debated, at great expense, but it was 'paused' in 2022 amid grumblings of 'wokeness' from back benches, and finally quietly dropped in 2023. 22/
THE OUTCOME: The bill was drafted and debated, at great expense, but it was 'paused' in 2022 amid grumblings of 'wokeness' from back benches, and finally quietly dropped in 2023. 22/
THE PLEDGE: Set up an Office for Environmental Protection to keep gov't on track in its green agenda.
THE OUTCOME: The OEP was set up but gov't has ignored its every report - from river pollution to air quality. OEP currently predicts Sunak will achieve 4 out of 40 targets. 23/
THE OUTCOME: The OEP was set up but gov't has ignored its every report - from river pollution to air quality. OEP currently predicts Sunak will achieve 4 out of 40 targets. 23/
THE PLEDGE: To support North Sea oil and gas sector in transitioning to net zero.
THE OUTCOME: Green pledges rolled back amid international criticism. New drilling licenses granted. Chief of govt's own Climate Change Committee accuses Sunak of "wishful thinking" and resigns. 24/
THE OUTCOME: Green pledges rolled back amid international criticism. New drilling licenses granted. Chief of govt's own Climate Change Committee accuses Sunak of "wishful thinking" and resigns. 24/
THE PLEDGE: To increase defence spending each year at 0.5% above inflation.
THE OUTCOME: Boris Johnson dropped the "above inflation" bit in 2021. Department now faces a significant real terms cut, with the IFS predicting it could be as much as 16%. 25/
THE OUTCOME: Boris Johnson dropped the "above inflation" bit in 2021. Department now faces a significant real terms cut, with the IFS predicting it could be as much as 16%. 25/
THE PLEDGE: A free trade agreement with the USA.
THE OUTCOME: "Prospects of UK-US trade agreement, very low." 26/
THE OUTCOME: "Prospects of UK-US trade agreement, very low." 26/
And there you have it. Those were the individual pledges. All signed and 'guaranteed' and everything.
And all sitting under this overarching promise.
THE PLEDGE: "To serve you, the people."
THE OUTCOME: LOLZ ~AA 27/27 end of 🧵
And all sitting under this overarching promise.
THE PLEDGE: "To serve you, the people."
THE OUTCOME: LOLZ ~AA 27/27 end of 🧵
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