SHOIGU & LECORNU SPEAK - THE RUSSIANS ARE BOTHERED
1/5 Now we have an understanding of an unusual telephone call from the Russian war minister to the French defence minister. The first call in over 22 months. Shoigu was on the phone for a reason -
1/5 Now we have an understanding of an unusual telephone call from the Russian war minister to the French defence minister. The first call in over 22 months. Shoigu was on the phone for a reason -
2/5 he wanted to make it clear that French troops in Ukraine in any capacity ‘would make things very difficult for France’. Anyone would think that President Macron didn’t know that. But what the call really shows is that the idea that France or Poland or anyone else,
3/5 putting troops of any kind into Ukraine for any reason, is a situation Russia wants to avoid. It would complicate their situation dramatically and that’s the point. It seems clear that despite the propaganda, Russia knows any confrontation on land with another western ally -
4/5 especially a nuclear armed one like France where it can’t use its blackmail threats to intimidate it, is not a good prospect. Not least would be the threats of a major western air force that knows what it’s doing.
5/5 Clearly the idea of their war on Ukraine taking a turn like this is deeply disturbing for them. And that’s the entire point of President Macron’s strategy of not setting red lines Russia can see, reach but doesn’t cross, has already worked.
the policy of French strategic ambiguity about what, when and why it might send troops to Ukraine - it’s that that’s triggered a Russian response. And that’s a weakness they should not have been so stupid to reveal.
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