Let me be real personal and transparent for a few minutes, as brutally honest as I can be, given what's gone on this week over the life issue and my ongoing (I hope) righteous indignation over it.
The two most common responses I have received to what I'm posting and saying right now have been "you're helping the Democrats win" or "but you're still voting for Trump." These two responses are actually the same stimuli, just different reactions. Neither is looking at the broader picture, but just screaming "Cheeto Jesus Saves" and "Orange Man Bad" back and forth. Meanwhile, we've got problems, existential ones.
This isn't about Trump. Sure, both he and our enemies want it to be at all times. But this is about us, or at least should be, which is what I want it to be about.
We cannot sustain another four years of what is quantified in the chart I am sharing below. Sure, there's still enough pent up wealth in the country that many in the decisive suburbs still aren't feeling it now, but another four years of these trendlines (or worse) and it will be absolutely be felt in ways this generation hasn't before contemplated (and that's not counting other existential issues like weaponizing the DOJ to prosecute/imprison people for praying or protesting, leaving the border open for invasion, etc).
So here's where the personal part comes in.
Early last year I was invited to be on @Timcast show. The discussion we had there may have produced the most viral moments in my career thus far. My wife went with me, and was enamored with the setup they have there, and hoped one day we could have something similar for my show.
Well, last year our efforts were really blessed, so thank you to both all of you and the Lord. Last year we made about $400k pre-tax from the show, book royalties, speaking, political consulting, my wife's therapy work, etc. By far our most successful year yet. We were living paycheck to paycheck as recently as 2018. My lease is up next year in our current studio space, so we thought maybe we are making enough money now to have what Tim Pool does.
This month we went shopping for a house that could be what we want. Keep in mind we have been in our current home for 18 years, and it's now worth more than double what we paid for it then. So we theoretically have a nice nest egg there for a down payment on a new home.
But between how hard it is to find buyers for our current home, and current interest rates (which make new mortgages literally 100% more than they were before Biden came into office), we simply couldn't make the math work. You can't cash in on your own equity without a buyer, and then we were looking at mortgage payments above $5000k/month on the other end.
In other words, while earning in the top 5% of Americans, we were at best gonna be "house poor" but in a nicer house. So, given our current situation, if we can't make it work, how does the average American make it so? What about the young family that is now where we were 20 years ago looking for that starter house to embark upon the American dream? You know, like my princess @Anastasia_Hibbs and her husband @Steven_Hibbs_?
Most days, I cannot personally tolerate Trump's unrestrained narcissism/douchery/dishonesty/etc. I am never going to be invited into his inner sanctum, and frankly given what I've heard about what goes on there I don't want to be. I wanted a provably better man and a much more capable leader to be our champion. I sacrificed quite a bit professionally to make it so. I lost. The people have spoken. I wish we weren't re-playing the geriatric Olympics and taking one more "ok boomer" trip around the mountain. But it is what it is.
If you don't want to support Trump, it's not like he's not given you real reasons. I've read many of those myself, as in the notes from people still suffering from his unrepentant lockdowns and poison poke. I might be the only person on earth who has had a hand in writing two best-selling books about those cosmic failures.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am as confused and scared as everyone else, which is also why I'm turning more and more into theology on the show. I am actively trying to put more of my trust in the Lord, where it should've been all along.
But He does give us the freedom to make choices. As to this one, I am not confident about putting Trump back in there after he blinked and puckered before when we needed him most. I am also confident literal demons are in the White House as we speak and this can't go on one more minute. We are in a terrible place as a people, a hole we sadly dug ourselves. People of conscience can disagree, then, on what is the best way to put down the shovel.
As for me, I still think (and it's just my own opinion) despite all my current criticisms, the most righteous outcome is that Trump wins because the caliber of people he will likely empower to make most of the decisions are way superior to what is empowered now, if nothing else. Which is another reason why I am so mad at his selling out on the life issue.
He is pandering to a constituency that doesn't exist, and I fear he is losing the election right now by going down the same road the Mitt McCains went down before on this issue and then lost (by igniting their bloodlust base while stifling his own pro-life base by running from the issue). I fear he is playing right into our enemies' hands, just as he did when he handed the full power his office to a Karen in a bedazzled scarf and midget demon to wreak havoc.
Trump is making the conversation about abortion and not the matters itemized in the attached chart. And that's just what our enemies want, and precisely why their odds in the betting markets have soared as of late. Trump isn't playing 4-D chess, he's walking face first into Little Big Horn -- just as he did during Covid. Nor do I believe, on the authority of His Word, that God will bless His people turning their backs on what He holds most sacred.
This isn't about emotion for me, as it is for the Cheeto Jesus Saves and Orange Man Bad crowds, it's about pure math. It's not that I don't think Trump will win this way, it's that I think he cannot possibly do so.
I'll stop here. That's as honest and transparent as I can be. Do with it what you will.
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I looked into the cross tabs of this poll in 3 key battleground states -- Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Because it is absolutely impossible for Trump to get the required 270 Electoral College votes without winning at least 1 of them. Darned near impossible for him to get there without winning at least 2 of them.
Here are some cross-tabs that just don't make sense:
Nevada
-Claims Trump is winning women by 9 there when he lost them by 10 in 2020 (if this is true, why all the caving on abortion then?).
-Claims Trump is winning men there by 18 when he won them by only 5 in 2020.
-Claims Trump is winning Hispanics there by 11 when he lost them by 26 in 2020.
Pennsylvania
-Claims Trump is only losing women there by 3 when he lost them by 11 in 2020 (if this is true, why all the caving on abortion then?).
-Claims Trump is ahead there despite doing 5 points worse with whites than he did in 2020.
-Claims Biden is only getting 44% of the Philadelphia vote when he received 81% of it in 2020.
-Claims Biden is only getting 50% of the black vote there when he received 92% in 2020.
Percentage of electorate that is suburban/black during Trump era:
2022: 52/11
2020: 51/13
2018: 51/11
2016: 49/12
Can someone, anyone, please explain to me why the level of Righty election obsession on this app is like 90-10 more fixated on gaining another point or two of the voting bloc that is a sliver of the electorate — compared to the largest bloc of swing voters in every election?
Is it just as simple as the whites who consume our content are so desperate to be told they’re not racists anymore, that we are likewise this desperate for their business?
This is what I mean when I say the content we produce as an industry too often puts us at odds with what we claim are our stated goals as a movement.
Furthermore, check out this chart of states with black populations higher than the national average (blacks are 14% of US population). There are 16 of these states. What may surprise is you there are 6 solid red states and only 5 solid blue states. Furthermore, other than Michigan, the other 4 swing states here (GA, NC, VA, and FL) are swing due to wait for it…wait for it…wait for it…LARGE SUBURBAN POPULATIONS! You can’t make this up.
Text from someone who spends millions each election to help Republicans:
“I tell my donors this is a waste of money, and there is much more crossover appeal with Hispanics, but they don’t want to hear it. They’re tired of being called racists.”
Some takeaways from the #IACaucus results in this thread, the first official votes of the 2024 election.
Before the vote, I said I was confident in 4 things:
1) Turnout would be down. ✔️ 2) DeSantis would over-perform his polling. ✔️ 3) Haley wouldn't finish second. ✔️ 4) Haley would be closer to Vivek than DeSantis. ✖️
So I was right on 3/4. But there are details in there that must be further discussed, so we shall.
Turnout Would Be Down.
Make no mistake, this was a dominant performance by former President Trump. He more than doubled the record for largest caucus win ever (previously set by Dole 1988, who didn't win the nomination btw). Before we get into some other ominous signs within the turnout, though, that needs to be acknowledged from the jump. It is clear 'muh polls' were right about his support. Congratulations to him and his team. Tip of the cap. You blew the roof off the joint. Give them their flowers.
However, this election isn't about winning the Iowa Caucuses. It's really about winning 294 days from today. And to that end, there are concerns.
Yes, I expected turnout to be down. Until recently, this has been a low energy cycle in Iowa. Then we had the worst winter weather I can remember leading up to the in-person vote. However, I never expected a 41% drop in turnout from 2016. That is not good. When you factor in we have by far the most registered Republicans in the state's history, this is the worst turnout in the history of the Iowa Caucuses.
Can it all be chalked up to weather? Perhaps. But remember, GOP turnout was noticeably down across-the-board in the special and off-year elections in 2023 as well. So this is something to watch as we move forward, because I can't think of a time when a party had diminished turnout in a primary cycle and then went on to success in the general.
The biggest driver in depressed turnout? Shockingly it was white evangelicals -- long considered perhaps Trump's strongest base. They were 64% of caucus goers in 2016 but just 55% this year. No GOP nominee is winning a general election with depressed white evangelical turnout like that, no matter what percentage of them he gets.
My man is the first elected official to snap the spines of the demonic teachers' unions in a major urban population center. This is a generational accomplishment. All he does is win on policy, which is what matters most. Except when it doesn't...
The problem is it's very hard to build an uber-lucrative following in this business with a narrative of winning on policy, because much of the GOP base doesn't actually care about policy despite its claims to the contrary. We are not the people we claim to be.
Since we're not backed by gubmint and global corporations like Left Media, we often need to move where the food is. Which is more often found perpetuating a victim narrative more than a victor one, and exposing Leftist hypocrisy more than demanding GOP accountability.
With a night to sleep on it and reflect, thought I'd share some thoughts on the Colorado Supreme Court being the first to do the kinds of things I've been predicting for most of this year we were going to see. Let's try and look at this from several different angles.
Legal
People whose opinions I respect, including some that aren't even in the Trump Ride or Die camp, believe the opinion is basically junk. However, never forget this:
We are not a nation of laws, and never have been, but a nation of political will, and we will always will be.
For example, imagine Righty social media post-Roe v Wade. "This is complete bunk. There's no right to murder your kid in the Constitution, let alone an explicit right to privacy. This will get overturned." Instead, Roe was the "law of the land" for half a century.