Thread by @michaeldweiss

It's been a minute, but we have a new thread from "Karl," the Estonian military analyst, on the war in Ukraine. With @holger_r:

"Let’s start with the strategic view first. The U.S. has grown even more cautious and inept. Congress is exactly at the same place as the last time we spoke. For a brief moment, 1-2 weeks ago, it looked like they might be closer to a deal but today there is no certainty about it."

"The Republicans are still delaying. There’s no clarity about an aid package or a loan package or a combination of them. It’s the same as it was half a year ago. Ukraine has been losing territory on the eastern front unequivocally because of the stalled U.S. aid."

"On a positive side, the Czech ammunition initiative has brought considerable results and there is hope that first shipments will arrive on the frontline shortly. This is mainly artillery ammunition. Remarkably, the Czechs have managed to include aid from neutral or even Russia-friendly countries – India, Pakistan, even Serbia."

"The Macron initiative can also be regarded as positive from a strategic perspective. Estonia has historically been hesitant about the strategic autonomy concept and so far the French talk hasn’t included much military contribution. But insisting that France and other countries’ troops might be on Ukrainian territory even if only to train has really irritated Russia."

"If France really did it, the Baltic countries, probably Poland and Czechia, maybe the Nordic countries and the UK, would join in. This would be a nice coalition to train Ukrainian troops. It is not such a big step, actually, because, as has also been publicly stated, de facto the special ops are already there."

"France has always wanted to project a larger geopolitical role in relations to the U.S. than it has actually possessed. Now that the U.S. has left a vacuum, Macron sees an opportunity to take advantage of."

"This new France initiative has been weakened by direct condemnation from the U.S. and German leaders though. If we add the U.S.’ views about Ukraine hitting Russia’s oil and military targets, the American position has become embarrassing -- especially considering that they can’t contribute anything to help Ukraine themselves."

"Does derives more from Biden’s team’s domestic considerations to keep the topic off of election discussions as rising oil prices wouldn’t not play well in elections? Is it a strategic fear or a combination, I can’t judge."

"On the frontlines Russian pressure is strong. Since we spoke last time Ukraine has lost Avdiivika, Russia has advanced north-west of Bakhmut, west of Avdiivka, at Pervomaisk and maybe also on the southern frontline. It has been on an operational level, but it is consistent and systematic."

"The reason is Ukraine’s lack of ammunition and weaponry to deter Russia’s planes. The Russian glide bombs just completely destroy Ukraine’s defense positions and there is no option but to retreat to new positions."

"Again, it is because of no U.S. aid package. The last U.S. package in March was $300 million. It was smaller than the aid that Denmark announced on the same day. Since then, nothing. It really makes itself felt on the frontlines."

"There is no reason to fear that Ukraine's defense might collapse. It is not so tragic. Ukrainian top officers and people close to them are more optimistic than the West is. They say Ukraine might lose some ground in the next months but there is no fear of Russia breaking through the defense."

"But Russia will continue to progress primarily on the eastern front. There are also signs of very strong Russian pressure on areas that Ukraine won back last summer by Robotyne and Verbove."

"Ukrainian society has finally managed to deal with the change of the commander-in-chief. There were fears that it would divide the society more than it did. Ukrainian people understand that this is not a reason to break up their own society and they need to fight regardless of which personality they like more."

"The frequent missile and drone attacks on Kharkiv and Odessa are a concern. These are large, strategically and symbolically important cities. Russia's goal is to make life as uncomfortable there as possible."

"This especially applies for Kharkiv where they haven’t been hitting anything else but residential areas over the last weeks. Kharkiv is also so close to the border that Ukraine's air defense can’t do much against the S-300 missiles. Occasionally they also pound the city with glide bombs and drones."

"Russia also continues to destabilize Moldova. They have repeatedly claimed that Ukraine attacked targets in Transnistria. They are flying the leaders of the Gagauzia region to Moscow. The only aim is destabilization of the country ahead of the presidential elections in autumn. Currently Russia lacks the ability to intervene in Moldova militarily."

"Ukraine's Rada will pass the new mobilization law any day now but the demobilization issues will be handled with separate acts. The troops who have been on the frontline for over 2 years have received some breaks but of course they want more. That said, the same situation is worse for Russian units."

"Russian bloggers wrote a few days ago that the new mobilization will be in May. Now they rephrased saying that it definitely will not be in May. The wording is important here. This suggests it can be in June or July."

"Considering their huge troop losses especially at Avdiivka they will need to announce a new mobilization wave. They can’t man their units gathering between 15-25k troops a month. I doubt they would be able to deploy more than that a month regardless of what they say themselves. Russia often knowingly 'manufactures' its success and tries to sell it to the West."

"Especially if Russia plans a large new offense, they will need mobilization. Right now they are not capable of attacking Kharkiv from two directions – from Kupyansk in the east and across the border from Belgorod – simultaneously as has been speculated."

"The so-called Russian volunteers operations in Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk showed that Russia doesn’t have any serious units there. Otherwise the 'volunteers' wouldn’t have been able to go in and out for several weeks."

"Russia's offense on the Kupyansk direction has also clearly stalled. The activity was much higher there still 1-2 months ago."

"Regarding Russia’s next large offensive, the more realistic direction would be to continue from the Donetsk direction. Putin’s first goal was to fully conquer Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Russia has seen some success in 3 directions there: Avdiivika in the center, Bakhmut to the north and to the south in Pervomaisk."

"A logical next direction would be towards Chassiv Yar west of Bakhmut. It would open up directions towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk which are the largest free cities in Donetsk oblast. Kramatorsk is also home to Ukraine’s eastern HQ."

"Ukraine's air defense is weaker and since they don't have F-16s, Russia can cause a lot of harm with the glide bombs. F-16s would bring at least a bit of relief to it because their operating radius is larger. When Russia can’t bring their bombers closer, their accuracy goes down. Already they have bombed occupied areas and Russia’s own territory." /END