Thread by @KarenCutter4

Some fact checking on this article.
TLDR: Australia has not reached a 'significant' COVID milestone
A short thread/

https://twitter.com/SBSNews/status/1778534581064564737

"Australia appears to have had at least a week where no COVID-associated deaths were recorded for the first time in more than two years."
This is simply not true. The statement is based on this Fed Health graph.

Yes, it does show a 7-day average of zero deaths for the most recent data points. But this ignores the fact that the graph is compiled using date of death, and it is almost impossible for someone to die, have their death registered, and included in the Fed data within a week!

This displays a fundamental misunderstanding of what the graph shows and how it is compiled.
The graph ALWAYS shows no deaths in the most recent week due to the inherent delays in registering deaths.

Further, there is something screwy going on with the death reporting. The numbers in this graph are significantly lower than what the official death certificate records are showing, as compiled by the APS. See this thread for more:

https://x.com/KarenCutter4/status/1773109267383402509

"The number of COVID-related hospital admissions is also the lowest it's been since January 2022, according to the latest data from the Department of Health and Aged Care."
This is also not true, but again is based on a Federal Health graph.

See note at bottom: "recent data will be subject to revision".
This irks me as the last point on this graph is shown as nose-diving. The 7-day average is 62. This includes values for the most recent days of:
- 6 March: 0
- 5 March: 4
- 4 March: 25.
CLEARLY incorrect.

Ignoring these 3 points, the 7-day average is 113. This will also under-count the actual position a little, and is likely to be around 120.
This is the lowest hospitalisations have been since about mid-Oct23, when we were about half-way up the slope of the current wave.

My view: at early March 2023, when these graphs were created, we were on the downward slope of the wave, but hadnt yet reached the bottom. No significant milestones had been reached.
New stats are expected out later today. Expect a lack of clarity.
ends/

I am so incredibly frustrated by both the presentation of these graphs and the reporting on them. Why is is so hard at this point in the pandemic to get it right?

@AusSMC have you seen this thread?