Thread by @DACDAC4DAC

Open Letter to Clover:

I know that you are a 24-year-old climate activist. I get the fact that you believe that "you are familiar with the science." But, frankly, this is complete and utter garbage.

Let me tell you about my journey to this point.

https://twitter.com/cloverhogan/status/1778388111296225452

In 1989, 11 years before you were born, I was told by the same people that unless we reversed course by 2000, entire nations would be wiped from the Earth.

.tallahasseereports.com/2019/03/09/a-1…

I was interested in meteorology and quite good at it. When I went to college in the early 90s, I decided that climate science was one likely option on what I wanted to do. I dove into the material and attended as many lectures as possible at different universities.

But I noticed something. All of the predictions were based on a lot of assumptions. All of the analyses were based on complex models with little oversight. All of the ice core samples were viewed by only a small number of people.

I also noticed that all of the scientists who touted the extreme destruction were feted like royalty by other professors. Rather than asking tough questions, they were brought in to be celebrated.

The more I dug into the data, the less it appeared like disaster was imminent.

Even in the early 90s, it was clear that the human population had exploded, yet the absolute number of weather-related and climate-related deaths were way down. If anything, burning fossil fuels had been associated with improvements in humans surviving catastrophes.

By that point, I decided to pursue a career in biological sciences because I trusted the research more (that might be a mistake now). But I continued to look into the climate data and critique it like any other scientific data.

The problem was always that the data was opaque. Layered under assumptions and obfuscated by lack of access to the source material. Few ever really tried to replicate the evidence and contradictory evidence was always cast aside.

Then, 2000 came and went. No nations were wiped off the Earth. But that didn't stop new predictions of doom. And none of those ever came true.

More troubling was the desire to rig the data to make things look worse than it actually is.

Like the EPA showing that heatwaves had become more intense since the 1960s.

The problem is that heatwaves were vastly more intense in the 1930s and the 60s and 70s were unusually cold decades. In fact, we look a lot more like the 1910s and 1920s today.

Why hide that information? Why twist the facts?

I also noticed that events that weren't climate-related but government-related were blamed on climate change. It still happens today. The Maui fires were a government-created disaster. Yet, the government blamed climate change.

Ultimately, I determined that climate scientists were paid massive sums of money to pull the government line of a massive catastrophe. Unlike the myth that scientists were paid to downplay climate change, they were paid far more to hype the effects.

.gao.gov/products/gao-1…

How much more? Since 1993, the US government alone has pumped $154 billion into climate research. That's more than $5 billion per year. That's a problem. And it leads to terrible research and predictions that are wrong over and over again.

Like Pacific Islands disappearing. They are in fact getting larger.
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-0…

Like polar bears disappearing. Researchers admitted that they have no idea what the numbers were when they made the predictions in the first place. So, the appearance of an increase in population would be miscounting. That means they don't know the trend.

usatoday.com/story/news/fac…

Here is the thing, Clover. If we only have 2 years to reverse course, it's already over. There is no way that you are going to convince billions of Asians and Africans to stop cooking and heating with wood, coal, and gas. They won't stop because that would be bad for them.

There are 6 billion people who aren't going to change course. How do I know? Because almost every signatory to the Paris Agreement promised to do nothing until some future date.

They like the modern world. The modern world is driven by fossil fuels. It will be for some time.

There is no way that you are going to convince governments to impoverish their people. Even dictatorships avoid making life too terrible for their people because that would incite revolt.

If we have only 2 years left, we may as well accept the end.

Clover, 2 years isn't the end. That man just made up the number to scare people like you, especially young people like you. Young people are easily manipulated because they have no real background in how things work. I'm sorry to say but you know next to nothing about anything.

I hope that you will channel your energies into something worthwhile. Being an activist for activisms sake is a shallow existence. Find something fulfilling that pushes society forward and live your life. That will make people's lives better.

Sincerely,

Cherry

*activism's