Thread by @MichaelSinghDC

What can we learn from the Iranian attack on Israel, and what is likely to happen next? My thoughts...1/

Iran's attack on Israel was massive and unprecedented. However, it was also well-telegraphed, slow-moving, and played to Israeli defensive strengths. Iran likely hoped a few missiles would get through and cause damage/deaths, which they could then trumpet as a great success. 2/

We can see this in Iran's messaging. They falsely claimed (before missiles had even arrived) to have destroyed key targets; they claimed to have fired just "tens" of missiles, to project higher success rate than actually achieved; and they immediately called for deescalation. 3/

But Iran failed to surmount even this low bar. The attack failed utterly, highlighted Israel's close military coordination with regional and int'l partners, and arguably undermined its own deterrence. 4/

https://x.com/MichaelSinghDC/status/1779492950625399295

Iran's attack not only relieved, at least for now, Israel's isolation over Gaza, but exposed the cynicism of Russia and China, both of which sought to justify Iranian actions even as they called for Israel not to respond. This will diminish their prestige in the Middle East. 5/

There is a temptation to allow Iran's failure to be the last word. It has arguably succeeded twice over - first in its reported operation against the IRGC in Damascus, and second by Iran falling flat on its face in its attempted response. However...6/

But Israel will feel compelled to respond - as @dstroul noted, it can't allow direct attacks to go unanswered or to be normalized. And it will want not just to defeat the attack physically but show Iran its claimed new strategy of responding directly against Israel is unwise. 7/

The question before Israel is whether to respond in a way that is sharp but leaves room for deescalation; or whether to use this as an opportunity to pursue wider goals such as strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The latter likely requires a measure of US buy-in, however. 8/

For its part, however, the Biden admin would likely prefer Israel not respond. Hence the unusual step of convening G7 heads of state this morning. However, Israel is unlikely to see a diplomatic initiative as an acceptable substitute for a military response. /End