Brian Riedl ๐Ÿง€ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Profile picture
Apr 15 โ€ข 19 tweets โ€ข 7 min read โ€ข Read on X
This tax day, let's address the populist myth that ๐˜๐จ๐ฎ ๐€๐ซ๐ž ๐†๐ž๐ญ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐’๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐ฐ๐ž๐แต€แดน with the middle class paying all the taxes & the rich paying $0.

Yes, we can find individual examples, and maybe you wish the rich paid more. But they fund nearly all the govt.๐Ÿงต Image
Previous chart showed the top-earning 20% paying nearly 70% of all federal taxes.

Below, their subset of federal income taxes is tilted to 90%.

Note the bottom-earning 40% of families now collectively pay negative income taxes. Image
"Of course," critics respond, "the rich pay more of the income taxes over time only bc they are earning more of the income."

Not true. This chart holds income distribution constant by dividing each group's share of income taxes by share of income earned. Progressivity stillโฌ†๏ธ Image
In fact, the average income tax rate paid by the top 1% has slightly risen since 1979. For lower-earners, average tax rates have dropped dramatically.

(Yes, these charts are actual taxes paid to IRS, including all deductions, loopholes, etc). Image
Overall, the federal govt has a very progressive tax code. The blue line is all federal taxes, the red is income taxes only. Again, these are actual taxes paid to the IRS.

The median earners pay an effective income tax rate of just 3%, higher earners pay much more on average. Image
In fact, in 2008 the OECD reported that the U.S. had the most progressive wage taxes in the OECD even controlling for income inequality.

And this understates the difference bc:
A) U.S. has become even progressive since, and
B) It excludes Europe's even more regressive VATs. Image
But didn't the White House say the rich pay an 8% tax rate? Only if you redefine their income in a way no other country does, and also simply do not count the estate & corporate taxes the rich pay. In other words, its manipulated to produce a bogus stat.

wsj.com/articles/is-thโ€ฆ
This is how Washington was funded in 2023 (all taxes included, with each group's average combined rate embedded in the bars).

This is what a very progressive tax system looks like. Image
Put differently, the top 20% funded 209 days of federal spending in 2023. The bottom-earning 60% funded 24 days. Borrowing also funded 3 months.

This progressivity may be a good or bad thing, but let's not deny it exists. Image
But didn't tax rate cuts collapse revenues?

Well, since the 1950s the top income tax bracket fell from 91% to 28%, then up to current 37%.

And post-1980 income tax revenues (%GDP) have been โ„Ž๐‘–๐‘”โ„Ž๐‘’๐‘Ÿ than in the high tax 1950s-1970s.

Tax rates aren't everything. Image
In 1961, all income tax brackets between 52% and 91% collectively brought in just 1% of income tax revenues compared to having a 50% top rate. That's how few people paid it. And accounting for econ effects may show a revenue ๐‘‘๐‘’๐‘๐‘™๐‘–๐‘›๐‘’.

From me at: manhattan.institute/article/the-liโ€ฆ
Image
What about capital gains taxes? If we account for surtaxes and state taxes, even progressive economists concede they are near revenue-maximizing rates.

Over time, there is no positive correlation between capital gains rates and revenues. Image
What about corporate tax rates? The 2017 tax reforms merely reduced the U.S. rate from #1 to above average in the OECD.

And, our effective corporate taxes paid are above average as well. More at manhattan.institute/article/the-liโ€ฆ
Image
When you hear huge corporation X paid barely any taxes in a given year, it is often either:
A) Mostly foreign income that paid foreign income.
B) Much of the tax liability shifted across years.
C) They followed Washington incentives to invest/expand, R&D, or Biden energy credits.
What about left-wing Europe? America's top income, cap gains, corporate, and estate tax rates ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ the OECD average and at times even left-wing Scandinavia.

And again, effective rates paid tell a similar story. Image
The reason the OECD revenues exceed the U.S. by 7.5% of GDP is because they raise 7.2% with VATs.

Scandinavia's larger overage is nearly all VATs & Social Security taxes.

Those are broad-based taxes, not extra taxes on the rich. Europe's taxes are less progressive than the U.S. Image
Overall, America taxes the rich and corporations similarly to OECD. But tax rates on middle- and low-earners have collapsed over the years, producing a more progressive tax code. Total revenues have remained mostly steady, with the overall burden shifting up the income ladder. Image
You are all free to endorse this progressivity and want even more. I'm not taking sides here.

But the lazy populist narrative that the middle class is getting buried in federal taxes while the rich pay little-to-nothing is simply false.

You are not getting screwed. Sorry.
(/F)
*paid foreign income ๐‘ก๐‘Ž๐‘ฅ๐‘’๐‘ .

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More from @Brian_Riedl

Apr 11
NEW from me: My new Issue Brief takes on the lazy contention that simply eliminating the $168,600 wage cap on Social Security taxes can bring long-term solvency without the need for spending savings (and is progressive reform). Neither point is true. ๐Ÿงต

manhattan.institute/article/probleโ€ฆ
Image
First, Social Security taxes stop at $168,600 in wages (growing by inflation) bc that's where benefits stop accruing as well. We're told that SocSec benefits are "earned" with FICA taxes. Higher taxes mean more benefits too - unless we want to delink & make SocSec truly welfare.
Anyway, what happens if you eliminate the Social Security tax cap with no add'l benefit provided?

The 0.9% of GDP raised closes barely half of the SocSec gap that is set to reach 1.7% of GDP by the 2030s. So it doesn't prevent the need for eligibility age or benefit reforms. Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 11
Quick Analysis of President Biden's new budget๐Ÿงต

The first takeway is that the claimed $3.2 trillion in deficit reduction is mostly fake.

Biden repeatedly endorses extending the 2017 tax cuts for earners under $400k, but his budget simply leaves out their $2.4 trillion cost.
Additionally, the president uses the classic gimmick of assuming that future (always well into the future!) discretionary spending falls to 1930s levels as a %GDP. That's another $3 trillion in fake savings.

This and the endorsed tax cuts add $5+ trillion to 10-year deficits.
Also, the Biden budget proposes no reforms to prevent the Social Security trust fund from going insolvent and cutting benefits by 23% by 2033.

Instead, the budget seems to assume general revenue bailouts. So we're severing the trust fund myth and going the debt crisis route. Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 8
Today, CBO released its first full budget baseline in 9 months. Let's dive in... ๐Ÿงต

CBO shows that today's $2 trillion deficits will soon become a regular occurence, even with (assumed) peace, prosperity, and low interest rates. Image
However, CBO is required to assume:
1) All 2017 tax cuts (+ recent ACA expansion) expire on schedule.
2) Congress cuts discretionary spending to 5.1% of GDP - the lowest level since the 1930s.

No Chance.

Fix those, and baseline budget deficit jumps to $3.6 trillion in a decade. Image
This current-policy baseline shows deficits hitting an unsustainable 8.8% of GDP in a decade.

TCJA renewal will leave revenues somewhat below average, but far-above-average spending is the main driver of deficits. That is all Social Security, health care, and interest. Image
Read 9 tweets
Oct 2, 2023
NEW from me at CNN. The 10-year bond hit 4.7% today. Washington never locked in those 1-3% interest rates, and now the debt is rolling over into these rates at the same time deficits soar too.

If rates stay above 4% long-term, were in deep trouble. (1/)
cnn.com/2023/09/29/opiโ€ฆ
Every 1% that interest rates exceed the CBO baseline costs $3 trillion over the decade and $30 trillion over 30 years (or adds 40% of GDP to the debt, or like adding another Defense Department).

That's just for 1% higher rates. Image
Again, CBO assumes Washington's interest rate never exceeds 4% for 30 years. If they go to 5% or 6% long-term, deficits can grow to 13%-18% of GDP even with these rosy CBO baseline assumptions of tax cuts expiring and no more legislated spending hikes. Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 8, 2023
When I explain that inflation is cumulative and that a recent reduction in the inflation rate doesn't undo the steep 16% hike still embedded in prices under Biden, people understandably ask - since deflation is not a good option - what does beating inflation look like? (1/)๐Ÿงต
To me, inflation will finally be "beaten" when real (i.e, inflation-adjusted) hourly compensation has finally caught up to the pre-inflation peak. Until our pay catches up to the higher prices, we are still in an inflation hole. (2/) Image
But even the standard of real hourly compensation leaves a few questions to answer. Is the steep peak of Jan. 2021 the target? Or the pre-pandemic level?

Or - my preference - catching up to the slightly-rising pre-pandemic trend line that matches our normal expectations. (3/) Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 5, 2023
In the past 2 days, I've been deluged with replies from progressives demanding that America catch up with Europe's taxing of the rich.

However, the top U.S. income, corporate, cap gains, & estate tax rates already *exceed* OECD averages and even much of Scandinavia. (1/4) Image
America's lower tax revenues are driven not by going easy on the wealthy, but rather from taxing the middle class less than other nations.

The OECD's higher tax revenues are driven almost entirely by broad-based VATs and payroll taxes. They also slam middle class on income taxes Image
Obligatory caveat: Yes, you can still advocate higher taxes on the rich, and I agree that taxes must be on the table for any grand deficit deal.

The point is that citing Europe as an example of a tax-the-rich utopia relies more on caricature than reality. (3/)
Read 4 tweets

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