1. Two attorneys are on the jury in People v. Trump. If those attorney-jurors carefully analyze the legal elements, as I have done, as @RDEliason has done, and aren't swayed by emotion, this may be favorable for defendant Trump
2. Specially, it is questionable whether the DA can establish beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump filed false business records with the required intent to defraud and with the, additional, required intent to conceal or commit another crime. One would expect attorney-jurors to
3. be very particular in their analysis of the legal elements required to establish the Penal Law 175.10 felonies. And, among those elements, intent to defraud and intent to conceal or commit another crime will be hotly contested.
4. Whatever determination the attorney-jurors reach regarding those legal elements will likely carry great weight with the other jurors who don't have any training or experience in the law. If I were representing the People in this case, as a general matter, I wouldn't want an
5. attorney as a juror. Rather, I would want persons with no legal training or experience who, perhaps, are more likely to be swayed by emotion and far less likely to carefully analyze the essential legal elements the DA must establish BARD.
6. That being said, there may be other things in the backgrounds of the attorney-jurors that suggest that, despite the legal technicalities that this case involves (specifically the mens rea requirements), they will be favorable to the prosecution. Time will tell.
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2. The @ManhattanDA must establish beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump filed the false documents with intent to defraud some person or entity out of money, property or something of value. Or that he did so with intent to frustrate or interfere with some lawful government
3. function. This mens rea element is required in addition to establishing that Trump filed the false documents with intent to commit or conceal another crime. Without intent to defraud, no crime. Without intent to commit or conceal another crime, no felony under 175.10.
4. Expect Trump's defense team to argue that the DA hasn't established that Trump had either intent when he filed the false documents (stating that the payments to Cohen were for "legal expenses," when, in fact, they were to reimburse Cohen for fronting the $130,000 to obtain
1. I agree with @lee_kovarsky that it's virtually certain Trump will lose his PI claim. The panel (at least 2 judges) may hold that (1) none of the acts alleged in the indictment were "official;" (2) none of the acts were within the "outer perimeter" of a POTUS's official duties
2. powers or responsibilities; (3) the Impeachment Judgment Clause doesn't require a Senate conviction before a FPOTUS can be criminally prosecuted for unofficial acts (or acts outside the outer perimeter of his official duties, powers or responsibilities) performed while POTUS;
3. (3) the DCCA has interlocutory jurisdiction to address the merits of the PI ("right not to stand trial") claim; (4) even if no interlocutory jurisdiction, since the PI claim is "quasi-jurisdictional" (i.e., doesn't involve a non-waivable issue such as subject matter
1. Read Judge Wallace's opinion. It lays out a devastating case against Trump for inciting the Insurrection in violation of 18 USC 2383. Jack Smith needs to explain why he didn't indict Trump for violating 2383 -- a criminal statute that includes a disqualification provision.
2. As I have been stating, repeatedly, it's a pipe dream to believe the SCOTUS would permit any state to exclude Trump from the ballot by relying on 14A3. So far, every state court to address 14A3 as a means to disqualify Trump from the ballot has rejected that attempt.
3. The way to disqualify Trump is simple: Charge him w/inciting the Insurrection (which I have repeatedly advocated for since ... January 8, 2021); convict him of that crime; and submit a certified copy of his conviction to Congress and every state demanding his disqualification.
1. Read Meadows reply brief.
This is a no-brainer.
As I previously stated: 💯% guaranteed 11th Cir vacates Judge Jones' remand order.
And, @lee_kovarsky, as I have stated: The key word is "asserted," not "charge." See attached 6 excerpts.
2. Meadows Reply Brief
3. "simple decision to permit removal"
Judge Jones took what should have been a simple, straightforward, factual and legal analysis and turned it upside down by ignoring the text of 1442 ["any act"] & SCOTUS cases [Mesa - only an "assertion" of colorable federal defense required]
1. Jack Smith is presumably doing what I stated in my pinned thread (and have stated many time since J6) he needs to do: Establish, in chronological order, everything that Trump said, did and participated in from Election Day to J6 to achieve his ultimate goal of preventing, or
2. at least delaying, Biden's being inaugurated on J20. In an 18 USC 2383 prosecution for inciting the Insurrection, Smith would need to convince a jury that Trump's acts, words and omissions before, during and after J6 were intended by Trump to incite an imminent and likely
3. insurrection at the Capitol. At trial, Smith would explain to the jury that Trump had one overriding goal: Prevent Biden from being sworn in on J20. He would then lay out for the jury in chronological order (starting on Election Day and continuing to at least J6) everything
Convicting Trump of inciting the Insurrection in violation of 18 U.S.C. 2383, is the most direct path to ensuring that he will never be able to return to the Oval Office. Relying on 14A3 presents many more obstacles to achieving that democracy-saving goal. https://t.co/hiLuLD4OlF
In addition, if Jack Smith is considering prosecuting Trump for attempting to corruptly obstruct the Joint Session of Congress on J6 (in violation of 18 USC 1512(c)(2)), he will very likely have to convince a jury that Trump used "criminal" means to accomplish his goal.
Incitement of the Insurrection, if established BARD, would clearly constitute the required criminal means to support a 1512(c)(2) conviction. Not so with respect to the alternate (or, as some prefer, false) elector scheme. It is far from clear that the submission of Trump-elector